Time series wind power forecasting based on variant Gaussian process and TLBO

Due to the variability and stochastic nature of wind power system, accurate wind power forecasting has an important role in developing reliable and economic power system operation and control strategies. As wind variability is stochastic, Gaussian Process regression has recently been introduced to capture the randomness of wind energy. However, the disadvantages of Gaussian Process regression include its computation complexity and incapability to adapt to time varying time-series systems. A variant Gaussian Process for time series forecasting is introduced in this study to address these issues. This new method is shown to be capable of reducing computational complexity and increasing prediction accuracy. It is further proved that the forecasting result converges as the number of available data approaches innite. Further, a teaching learning based optimization (TLBO) method is used to train the model and to accelerate
the learning rate. The proposed modelling and optimization method is applied to forecast both the wind power generation of Ireland and that from a single wind farm to show the eectiveness of the proposed method.

A state-of-the-art review and feasibility analysis of high altitude wind power in Northern Ireland

In many countries wind energy has become an indispensable part of the electricity generation mix. The opportunity for ground based wind turbine systems are becoming more and more constrained due to limitations on turbine hub heights, blade lengths and location restrictions linked to environmental and permitting issues including special areas of conservation and social acceptance due to the visual and noise impacts. In the last decade there have been numerous proposals to harness high altitude winds, such as tethered kites, airfoils and dirigible based rotors. These technologies are designed to operate above the neutral atmospheric boundary layer of 1,300 m, which are subject to more powerful and persistent winds thus generating much higher electricity capacities. This paper presents an in-depth review of the state-of-the-art of high altitude wind power, evaluates the technical and economic viability of deploying high altitude wind power as a resource in Northern Ireland and identifies the optimal locations through considering wind data and geographical constraints. The key findings show that the total viable area over Northern Ireland for high altitude wind harnessing devices is 5109.6 km2, with an average wind power density of 1,998 W/m2 over a 20-year span, at a fixed altitude of 3,000 m. An initial budget for a 2MW pumping kite device indicated a total cost £1,751,402 thus proving to be economically viable with other conventional wind-harnessing devices.

A novel methodology for analysis of large scale interconnected power and gas systems

The European Union continues to exert a large influence on the direction of member states energy policy. The 2020 targets for renewable energy integration have had significant impact on the operation of current power systems, forcing a rapid change from fossil fuel dominated systems to those with high levels of renewable power. Additionally, the overarching aim of an internal energy market throughout Europe has and will continue to place importance on multi-jurisdictional co-operation regarding energy supply. Combining these renewable energy and multi-jurisdictional supply goals results in a complicated multi-vector energy system, where the understanding of interactions between fossil fuels, renewable energy, interconnection and economic power system operation is increasingly important. This paper provides a novel and systematic methodology to fully understand the changing dynamics of interconnected energy systems from a gas and power perspective. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the 2030 power systems in Great Britain and Ireland, combined with a representative gas transmission energy flow model is developed. The importance of multi-jurisdictional integrated energy system operation in one of the most strategically important renewable energy regions is demonstrated.

Statistical Analysis of Wind Power Generation in Europe

Studies have shown that large geographical spreading can reduce the wind power variability and smooth production. It is frequently assumed that storage and interconnection can manage wind power variability and are totally flexible. However, constraints do exist. In the future more and more electricity will be provided by renewable energy sources and more electricity interconnectors will be built between European Union (EU) countries, as outlines in many of the Projects of Common Interests. It is essential to understand the correlation of wind generation throughout Europe considering power system constraints. In this study the spatial and temporal correlation of wind power production across several countries is examined in order to understand how “the wind ‘travels’ across Europe”. Three years of historical hourly wind power generation from ten EU countries is analysed to investigate the geographic diversity and time scales influence on correlation of wind power variations. Results are then compared with two other studies and show similar general characteristics of correlation between EU country pairs to identify opportunities for storage optimisation, power system operations, and trading.

An analysis of wind curtailment and constraint at a nodal level

Many countries have set challenging wind power targets to achieve by 2020. This paper implements a realistic analysis of curtailment and constraint of wind energy at a nodal level using a unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the Irish Single Electricity Market in 2020. The key findings show that significant reduction in curtailment can be achieved when the system non-synchronous penetration limit increases from 65% to 75%. For the period analyzed, this results in a decreased total generation cost and a reduction in the dispatch-down of wind. However, some nodes experience significant dispatch-down of wind, which can be in the order of 40%. This work illustrates the importance of implementing analysis at a nodal level for the purpose of power system planning.

Development of sustainable, innovative and energy-efficient concrete, based on the integration of all-waste materials: SUS-CON panels for building applications

The building sector requires the worldwide production of 4 billion tonnes of cement annually, consuming more than 40% of global energy and accounting for about 8% of the total CO2 emissions. The SUS-CON project aimed at integrating waste materials in the production cycle of concrete, for both ready-mixed and pre-cast applications, resulting in an innovative light-weight, ecocompatible and cost-effective construction material, made by all-waste materials and characterized by enhanced thermal insulation performance and low embodied energy and CO2. Alkali activated “cementless” binders, which have recently emerged as eco-friendly construction materials, were used in conjunction with lightweight recycled aggregates to produce sustainable concrete for a range of applications. This paper presents some results from the development of a concrete made with a geopolymeric binder (alkali activated fly ash) and aggregate from recycled mixed plastic. Mix optimisation was achieved through an extensive investigation on production parameters for binder and aggregate. The mix recipe was developed for achieving the required fresh and hardened properties. The optimised mix gave compressive strength of about 7 MPa, flexural strength of about 1.3 MPa and a thermal conductivity of 0.34 W/mK. Fresh and hardened properties were deemed suitable for the industrial production of precast products. Precast panels were designed and produced for the construction of demonstration buildings. Mock-ups of about 2.5 x 2.5 x 2.5 m were built at a demo park in Spain both with SUS-CON and Portland cement concrete, monitoring internal and external temperatures. Field results indicate that the SUS-CON mock-ups have better insulation. During the warmest period of the day, the measured temperature in the SUS-CON mock-ups was lower.

Management of public water supply to reduce energy cost and improve wind power uptake

This paper presents a study on the implementation of Real-Time Pricing (RTP) based Demand Side Management (DSM) of water pumping at a clean water pumping station in Northern Ireland, with the intention of minimising electricity costs and maximising the usage of electricity from wind generation. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to create pumping schedules based on system constraints and electricity tariff scenarios. Implementation of this method would allow the water network operator to make significant savings on electricity costs while also helping to mitigate the variability of wind generation.

Management of public water supply to reduce energy cost and improve wind power uptake

This paper presents a study on the implementation of Real-Time Pricing (RTP) based Demand Side Management (DSM) of water pumping at a clean water pumping station in Northern Ireland, with the intention of minimising electricity costs and maximising the usage of electricity from wind generation. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to create pumping schedules based on system constraints and electricity tariff scenarios. Implementation of this method would allow the water network operator to make significant savings on electricity costs while also helping to mitigate the variability of wind generation.

Effect of weather and the hybrid energy storage on the availability of standalone microgrid

This paper presents a model for availability analysis of standalone hybrid microgrid. The microgrid used in the study consists of wind, solar storage and diesel generator. Boolean driven Markov process is used to develop the availability of the system in the proposed method. By modifying the developed model, the relationship between the availability of the system with the fine (normal) weather and disturbed (stormy) weather durations are analyzed. Effects of different converter technologies on the availability of standalone microgrid were investigated and the results have shown that the availability of microgrid increased by 5.80 % when a storage system is added. On the other hand, the availability of standalone microgrid could be overestimated by 3.56 % when weather factor is neglected. In the same way 200, 500 and 1000 hours of disturbed weather durations reduced the availability of the system by 5.36%, 9.73% and 13.05 %, respectively. In addition, the hybrid energy storage cascade topology with a capacitor in the middle maximized the system availability.

Sustainable solutions for the construction sector: integration of secondary raw materials in the production cycle of concrete

The construction industry is one of the largest consumers of raw materials and energy and one of the highest contributor to green-houses gases emissions. In order to become more sustainable it needs to reduce the use of both raw materials and energy, thus lim-iting its environmental impact. Developing novel technologies to integrate secondary raw materials (i.e. lightweight recycled aggre-gates and alkali activated “cementless” binders - geopolymers) in the production cycle of concrete is an all-inclusive solution to im-prove both sustainability and cost-efficiency of construction industry. SUS-CON “SUStainable, Innovative and Energy-Efficiency CONcrete, based on the integration of all-waste materials” is an European project (duration 2012-2015), which aim was the inte-gration of secondary raw materials in the production cycle of concrete, thus resulting in innovative, sustainable and cost-effective building solutions. This paper presents the main outcomes related to the successful scaling-up of SUS-CON concrete solutions in traditional production plants. Two European industrial concrete producers have been involved, to design and produce both pre-cast components (blocks and panels) and ready-mixed concrete. Recycled polyurethane foams and mixed plastics were used as aggre-gates, PFA (Pulverized Fuel Ash, a by-product of coal fuelled power plants) and GGBS (Ground Granulated Blast furnace Slag, a by-product of iron and steel industries) as binders. Eventually, the installation of SUS-CON concrete solutions on real buildings has been demonstrated, with the construction of three mock-ups located in Europe (Spain, Turkey and Romania)

A multi vector energy analysis for interconnected power and gas systems

This paper presents the first multi vector energy analysis for the interconnected energy systems of Great Britain (GB) and Ireland. Both systems share a common high penetration of wind power, but significantly different security of supply outlooks. Ireland is heavily dependent on gas imports from GB, giving significance to the interconnected aspect of the methodology in addition to the gas and power interactions analysed. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model coupled to an energy flow model of the gas supply network is developed. Extreme weather events driving increased domestic gas demand and low wind power output were utilised to increase gas supply network stress. Decreased wind profiles had a larger impact on system security than high domestic gas demand. However, the GB energy system was resilient during high demand periods but gas network stress limited the ramping capability of localised generating units. Additionally, gas system entry node congestion in the Irish system was shown to deliver a 40% increase in short run costs for generators. Gas storage was shown to reduce the impact of high demand driven congestion delivering a reduction in total generation costs of 14% in the period studied and reducing electricity imports from GB, significantly contributing to security of supply.

A laboratory study of water ice erosion by low-energy ions

Water ice covers the surface of various objects in the outer Solar system.Within the heliopause, surface ice is constantly bombarded and sputtered by energetic particles from the solar wind and magnetospheres. We report a laboratory investigation of the sputtering yield of water ice when irradiated at 10 K by 4 keV singly (13C+, N+, O+, Ar+) and doubly charged ions (13C2+, N2+, O2+). The experimental values for the sputtering yields are in good agreement with the prediction of a theoretical model. There is no significant difference in the yield for singly and doubly charged ions. Using these yields, we estimate the rate of water ice erosion in the outer Solar system objects due to solar wind sputtering. Temperature-programmed desorption of the ice after irradiation with 13C+ and 13C2+ demonstrated the formation of 13CO and 13CO2, with 13CO being the dominant formed species.