Keeping a sense of proportion but losing all perspective: a critique of Gorard's notion of the 'Politician's Error'

In 1999 Stephen Gorard published an article in this journal in which he provided a trenchant critique of what he termed the `politician's error' in analysing differences in educational attainment. The main consequence of this error, he argued, has been the production of misleading findings in relation to trends in educational performance over time that have, in turn, led to misguided and potentially damaging policy interventions. By using gender differences in educational attainment as a case study, this article begins by showing how Gorard's notion of the politician's error has been largely embraced and adopted uncritically by those within the field. However, the article goes on to demonstrate how Gorard's own preferred way of analysing such differences – by calculating and comparing proportionate changes in performance between groups – is also inherently problematic and can lead to the production of equally misleading findings. The article will argue that there is a need to develop a more reliable and valid way of measuring trends in educational performance over time and will show that one of the simplest ways of doing this is to make use of existing, and widely accepted, measures of effect size.

Error sensitive historical GIS: Identifying areal interpolation errors in time series data

Historical GIS has the potential to re-invigorate our use of statistics from historical censuses and related sources. In particular, areal interpolation can be used to create long-run time-series of spatially detailed data that will enable us to enhance significantly our understanding of geographical change over periods of a century or more. The difficulty with areal interpolation, however, is that the data that it generates are estimates which will inevitably contain some error. This paper describes a technique that allows the automated identification of possible errors at the level of the individual data values.

Acoustic, volumetric, compressibility and refractivity properties and Flory’s reduction parameters of some homologous series of alkyl alkanoates from 298.15 to 333.15 K

The speeds of sound u in, densities ? and refractive indices nD of some homologous series, such as n-alkyl ethanoates, n-alkyl propionates, methyl alkanoates, ethyl alkanoates, dialkyl malonates, and alkyl haloalkanoates, were measured in the temperature range from 298.15 to 333.15 K. Molar volume V, isentropic and isothermal compressibilities ?S and ?T, molar refraction Rm, Eykman’s constant Cm, molecular radius r, Rao’s molar function R, thermal expansion coefficient a, thermal pressure coefficient ?, and Flory’s characteristic parameters image, P*, V*, and T* have been calculated from the measured experimental data. Applicability of Rao theory and Flory–Patterson–Pandey (FPP) theory have been examined and discussed for these alkanoates.

Acoustic, volumetric, compressibility and refractivity properties and reduction parameters for the ERAS and Flory models of some homologous series of amines from 298.15 to 328.15 K

The speeds of sound u, densities ? and refractive indices nD of homologous series of mono-, di-, and tri-alkylamines were measured in the temperature range from 298.15 to 328.15 K. Isentropic and isothermal compressibilities ?S and ?T, molar refraction Rm, Eykman’s constant Cm, Rao’s molar sound function R, thermal expansion coefficient a, thermal pressure coefficient ?, and reduction parameters P*, V*, and T* in frameworks of the ERAS model for associated amines and Flory model for tertiary amines have been calculated from the measured experimental data. Applicability of the Rao theory and the ERAS and Flory models have been examined and discussed for the alkyl amines.

Acoustic and volumetric properties of aqueous solutions of imidazolium based ionic liquids at 298.15 K

The experimental measurements of the speed of sound and density of aqueous solutions of imidazolium based ionic liquids (IL) in the concentration range of 0.05 mol · kg-1 to 0.5 mol · kg-1 at T = 298.15 K are reported. The data are used to obtain the isentropic compressibility (ßS) of solutions. The apparent molar volume (phiV) and compressibility (phiKS) of ILs are evaluated at different concentrations. The data of limiting partial molar volume and compressibility of IL and their concentration variation are examined to evaluate the effect due to IL–water and IL–IL interactions. The results have been discussed in terms of hydrophobic hydration, hydrophobic interactions, and water structural changes in aqueous medium.

Modeling energy consumption in error-prone IEEE 802.11-based wireless ad-hoc networks

In the IEEE 802.11 MAC layer protocol, there are different trade-off points between the number of nodes competing for the medium and the network capacity provided to them. There is also a trade-off between the wireless channel condition during the transmission period and the energy consumption of the nodes. Current approaches at modeling energy consumption in 802.11 based networks do not consider the influence of the channel condition on all types of frames (control and data) in the WLAN. Nor do they consider the effect on the different MAC and PHY schemes that can occur in 802.11 networks. In this paper, we investigate energy consumption corresponding to the number of competing nodes in IEEE 802.11's MAC and PHY layers in error-prone wireless channel conditions, and present a new energy consumption model. Analysis of the power consumed by each type of MAC and PHY over different bit error rates shows that the parameters in these layers play a critical role in determining the overall energy consumption of the ad-hoc network. The goal of this research is not only to compare the energy consumption using exact formulae in saturated IEEE 802.11-based DCF networks under varying numbers of competing nodes, but also, as the results show, to demonstrate that channel errors have a significant impact on the energy consumption.

Prediction- and simulation-error based perceptron training: Solution space analysis and a novel combined training scheme

Previous papers have noted the difficulty in obtaining neural models which are stable under simulation when trained using prediction-error-based methods. Here the differences between series-parallel and parallel identification structures for training neural models are investigated. The effect of the error surface shape on training convergence and simulation performance is analysed using a standard algorithm operating in both training modes. A combined series-parallel/parallel training scheme is proposed, aiming to provide a more effective means of obtaining accurate neural simulation models. Simulation examples show the combined scheme is advantageous in circumstances where the solution space is known or suspected to be complex. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.