Potential output in a rapidly developing economy: the case of China and a comparison with the United States and the European Union

The authors use a growth accounting framework to examine growth of the rapidly developing Chinese economy. Their findings support the view that, although feasible in the intermediate term, China's recent pattern of extensive growth is not sustainable in the long run. The authors believe that China will be able to sustain a growth rate of 8 to 9 percent for an extended period if it moves from extensive to intensive growth. They next compare potential growth in China with historical developments in the United States and the European Union. They discuss the differences in production structure and level of development across the three economies that may explain the countries' varied intermediate-term growth prospects. Finally, the authors provide an analysis of "green" gross domestic product and the role of natural resources in China's growth. © 2009, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The Irish hospitals sweepstake in the United States of America, 1930-1939

The Irish hospitals sweepstake was established by statute in the Irish Free State in 1930 to fund the state’s hospital service. The vast majority of tickets were sold outside Ireland, particularly in countries where such gambling was illegal at the time. Initially the largest market was in the United Kingdom, but following the introduction of restrictive legislation there in 1934, the promoters of the sweepstake turned their attentions to North America and after 1936 the United States became the largest source of contributions to the Irish sweep. This article examines a number of factors concerning the relationship of the Irish sweep with the USA, including: an effort to estimate the amount of money contributed to the sweep by Americans; the role of the Irish diaspora and of prominent republicans, including Joseph McGarrity and Connie Neenan, in the illegal ticket distribution network; the efforts of American Federal agencies and government departments to disrupt the sweepstake organisation in America; how the sweep was used by those who sought to legalise gambling in the USA; the attitudes of both the Irish and American governments to the sweep’s activities in America; and how the legalisation of gambling in America brought about the demise of the Irish sweep.

The United States and trade disputes in the World Trade Organization: Hegemony constrained or confirmed?

Does the World Trade Organization function to reinforce American dominance (or hegemony) of the world economy? We examine this question via an analysis of trade disputes involving the United States. This allows us to assess whether the US does better than other countries in this judicialised forum: and in so doing enhance the competitive prospects of their firms. The results are equivocal. The United States does best in the early phases of a dispute, where political power is important. It does less well as the process develops.

Beyond the United States and Japan: Testing Yamagishi's emancipation theory of trust across 31 nations

We examined the relationship between Individualism/Collectivism and generalized social trust across 31 European nations participating in the European Social Survey. Using multi-level regression analyses, the current study provides the first empirical investigation of the effects of cultural norms of Individualism/Collectivism on generalized social trust while accounting for individuals' own cultural orientations within the same analysis. The results provide clear support for Yamagishi and Yamagishi (1994) emancipation theory of trust, showing a significant and positive relationship between Individualism/Collectivism and generalized social trust, over and above the effect of a country political history of communism and ethnic heterogeneity. Having controlled for individual effects of Individualism/Collectivism it is clear that the results of the current analysis cannot be reduced to an individual-level explanation, but must be interpreted within the context Of macrosocial processes. We conclude by discussing potential mechanisms that could explain why national individualism is more likely to foster trust among people than collectivism.

A Note on Race, Ethnicity and Nativity Differences in Remarriage in the United States

The objectives of this study are to produce up-to-date estimates of race/ethnic/nativity differentials for remarriage and repartnership among women in the United States and to see if these differences are due to across-group differences in demographic characteristics. First, we produce lifetable estimates of remarriage and repartnering for white, black, U.S. born Latina and foreign born Latina women. Next, we estimate race/ethnic/nativity differentials for remarriage and repartnership using event-history analysis with and without controls for demographic characteristics. The results suggest a continued overall decline in remarriage rates, while many women repartner by cohabitating. Whites are more likely than blacks or Latinas to remarry and they are also more likely to repartner. Race/ethnic/nativity differentials remain even after accounting for variations in demographic characteristics. This suggests that race/ethnic/nativity differentials in remarriage and repartnering rates, rather than ameliorating disadvantages associated with divorce, reinforce these differentials.

Repeated measures of body mass index and C-reactive protein in relation to all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease: Results from the consortium on health and ageing network of cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Obesity has been linked with elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), and both have been associated with increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies have used a single ‘baseline’ measurement and such analyses cannot account for possible changes in these which may lead to a biased estimation of risk. Using four cohorts from CHANCES which had repeated measures in participants 50 years and older, multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) to examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and CRP with all-cause mortality and CVD. Being overweight (≥25–<30 kg/m2) or moderately obese (≥30–<35) tended to be associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to normal (≥18.5–<25): ESTHER, HR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.58–0.82) and 0.78 (0.63–0.97); Rotterdam, 0.86 (0.79–0.94) and 0.80 (0.72–0.89). A similar relationship was found, but only for overweight in Glostrup, HR (95 % CI) 0.88 (0.76–1.02); and moderately obese in Tromsø, HR (95 % CI) 0.79 (0.62–1.01). Associations were not evident between repeated measures of BMI and CVD. Conversely, increasing CRP concentrations, measured on more than one occasion, were associated with an increasing risk of mortality and CVD. Being overweight or moderately obese is associated with a lower risk of mortality, while CRP, independent of BMI, is positively associated with mortality and CVD risk. If inflammation links CRP and BMI, they may participate in distinct/independent pathways. Accounting for independent changes in risk factors over time may be crucial for unveiling their effects on mortality and disease morbidity.

Overweight duration in older adults and cancer risk: a study of cohorts in Europe and the United States

Recent studies have shown that cancer risk related to overweight and obesity is mediated by time and might be better approximated by using life years lived with excess weight. In this study we aimed to assess the impact of overweight duration and intensity in older adults on the risk of developing different forms of cancer. Study participants from seven European and one US cohort study with two or more weight assessments during follow-up were included (n = 329,576). Trajectories of body mass index (BMI) across ages were estimated using a quadratic growth model; overweight duration (BMI ≥ 25) and cumulative weighted overweight years were calculated. In multivariate Cox models and random effects analyses, a longer duration of overweight was significantly associated with the incidence of obesity-related cancer [overall hazard ratio (HR) per 10-year increment: 1.36; 95 % CI 1.12-1.60], but also increased the risk of postmenopausal breast and colorectal cancer. Additionally accounting for the degree of overweight further increased the risk of obesity-related cancer. Risks associated with a longer overweight duration were higher in men than in women and were attenuated by smoking. For postmenopausal breast cancer, increased risks were confined to women who never used hormone therapy. Overall, 8.4 % of all obesity-related cancers could be attributed to overweight at any age. These findings provide further insights into the role of overweight duration in the etiology of cancer and indicate that weight control is relevant at all ages. This knowledge is vital for the development of effective and targeted cancer prevention strategies.