THE SAAF STUDY: evaluation of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF), compared with management as usual, for improving outcomes for children and young people who have experienced, or are at risk of, maltreatment: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Serious case reviews and research studies have indicated weaknesses in risk assessments conducted by child protection social workers. Social workers are adept at gathering information but struggle with analysis and assessment of risk. The Department for Education wants to know if the use of a structured decision-making tool can improve child protection assessments of risk.

Methods/design: This multi-site, cluster-randomised trial will assess the effectiveness of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF). This structured decision-making tool aims to improve social workers' assessments of harm, of future risk and parents' capacity to change. The comparison is management as usual.

Inclusion criteria: Children's Services Departments (CSDs) in England willing to make relevant teams available to be randomised, and willing to meet the trial's training and data collection requirements.

Exclusion criteria: CSDs where there were concerns about performance; where a major organisational restructuring was planned or under way; or where other risk assessment tools were in use.

Six CSDs are participating in this study. Social workers in the experimental arm will receive 2 days training in SAAF together with a range of support materials, and access to limited telephone consultation post-training. The primary outcome is child maltreatment. This will be assessed using data collected nationally on two key performance indicators: the first is the number of children in a year who have been subject to a second Child Protection Plan (CPP); the second is the number of re-referrals of children because of related concerns about maltreatment. Secondary outcomes are: i) the quality of assessments judged against a schedule of quality criteria and ii) the relationship between the three assessments required by the structured decision-making tool (level of harm, risk of (re) abuse and prospects for successful intervention).

Discussion: This is the first study to examine the effectiveness of SAAF. It will contribute to a very limited literature on the contribution that structured decision-making tools can make to improving risk assessment and case planning in child protection and on what is involved in their effective implementation.

Prevalence of cataract and pseudophakia/aphakia among adults in the United States.

OBJECTIVES:

To determine the prevalence of cataract and pseudophakia/aphakia in the United States and to project the expected change in these prevalence figures by 2020.

METHODS:

Summary prevalence estimates of cataract and of pseudophakia/aphakia were prepared separately for black, white, and Hispanic persons (for whom only cataract surgery data were available) in 5-year age intervals starting at 40 years for women and men. The estimates were based on a standardized definition of various types of cataract: cortical, greater than 25% of the lens involved; posterior subcapsular, present according to the grading system used in each study; and nuclear, greater than or equal to the penultimate grade in the system used. Data were collected from major population-based studies in the United States, and, where appropriate, Australia, Barbados, and Western Europe. The age-, gender-, and race/ethnicity-specific rates were applied to 2000 US Census data, and projected population figures for 2020, to obtain overall estimates.

RESULTS:

An estimated 20.5 million (17.2%) Americans older than 40 years have cataract in either eye, and 6.1 million (5.1%) have pseudophakia/aphakia. Women have a significantly (odds ratio = 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.50) higher age-adjusted prevalence of cataract than men in the United States. The total number of persons who have cataract is estimated to rise to 30.1 million by 2020; and for those who are expected to have pseudophakia/aphakia, to 9.5 million.

CONCLUSION:

The number of Americans affected by cataract and undergoing cataract surgery will dramatically increase over the next 20 years as the US population ages.

A Note on Race, Ethnicity and Nativity Differences in Remarriage in the United States

The objectives of this study are to produce up-to-date estimates of race/ethnic/nativity differentials for remarriage and repartnership among women in the United States and to see if these differences are due to across-group differences in demographic characteristics. First, we produce lifetable estimates of remarriage and repartnering for white, black, U.S. born Latina and foreign born Latina women. Next, we estimate race/ethnic/nativity differentials for remarriage and repartnership using event-history analysis with and without controls for demographic characteristics. The results suggest a continued overall decline in remarriage rates, while many women repartner by cohabitating. Whites are more likely than blacks or Latinas to remarry and they are also more likely to repartner. Race/ethnic/nativity differentials remain even after accounting for variations in demographic characteristics. This suggests that race/ethnic/nativity differentials in remarriage and repartnering rates, rather than ameliorating disadvantages associated with divorce, reinforce these differentials.

Effect of major lifestyle risk factors, independent and jointly, on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: results from the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of "disease-free" years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is "never too late".

An evaluation of an adapted United States model of pharmaceutical care to improve psychoactive prescribing for nursing home residents in Northern Ireland (Fleetwood NI Study).

OBJECTIVES: To test the effect of an adapted U.S. model of pharmaceutical care on prescribing of inappropriate psychoactive (anxiolytic, hypnotic, and antipsychotic) medications and falls in nursing homes for older people in Northern Ireland (NI).

DESIGN: Cluster randomized controlled trial.

SETTING: Nursing homes randomized to intervention (receipt of the adapted model of care; n=11) or control (usual care continued; n=11).

PARTICIPANTS: Residents aged 65 and older who provided informed consent (N=334; 173 intervention, 161 control).

INTERVENTION: Specially trained pharmacists visited intervention homes monthly for 12 months and reviewed residents' clinical and prescribing information, applied an algorithm that guided them in assessing the appropriateness of psychoactive medication, and worked with prescribers (general practitioners) to improve the prescribing of these drugs. The control homes received usual care.

MEASUREMENTS: The primary end point was the proportion of residents prescribed one or more inappropriate psychoactive medicine according to standardized protocols; falls were evaluated using routinely collected falls data mandated by the regulatory body for nursing homes in NI.

RESULTS: The proportion of residents taking inappropriate psychoactive medications at 12 months in the intervention homes (25/128, 19.5%) was much lower than in the control homes (62/124, 50.0%) (odds ratio=0.26, 95% confidence interval=0.14–0.49) after adjustment for clustering within homes. No differences were observed at 12 months in the falls rate between the intervention and control groups.

CONCLUSION: Marked reductions in inappropriate psychoactive medication prescribing in residents resulted from pharmacist review of targeted medications, but there was no effect on falls.

Fruit and vegetable intake and risk of incident of type 2 diabetes: results from the consortium on health and ageing network of cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: There is limited information to support definitive recommendations concerning the role of diet in the development of type 2 Diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The results of the latest meta-analyses suggest that an increased consumption of green leafy vegetables may reduce the incidence of diabetes, with either no association or weak associations demonstrated for total fruit and vegetable intake. Few studies have, however, focused on older subjects.

SUBJECTS/METHODS: The relationship between T2DM and fruit and vegetable intake was investigated using data from the NIH-AARP study and the EPIC Elderly study. All participants below the age of 50 and/or with a history of cancer, diabetes or coronary heart disease were excluded from the analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the odds ratio of T2DM comparing the highest with the lowest estimated portions of fruit, vegetable, green leafy vegetables and cabbage intake.

RESULTS: Comparing people with the highest and lowest estimated portions of fruit, vegetable or green leafy vegetable intake indicated no association with the risk of T2DM. However, although the pooled OR across all studies showed no effect overall, there was significant heterogeneity across cohorts and independent results from the NIH-AARP study showed that fruit and green leafy vegetable intake was associated with a reduced risk of T2DM OR 0.95 (95% CI 0.91,0.99) and OR 0.87 (95% CI 0.87,0.90) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Fruit and vegetable intake was not shown to be related to incident T2DM in older subjects. Summary analysis also found no associations between green leafy vegetable and cabbage intake and the onset of T2DM. Future dietary pattern studies may shed light on the origin of the heterogeneity across populations.European Journal of Clinical Nutrition advance online publication, 17 August 2016; 

Biological influence on the morphology and micromorphology of selected Podzols (Spodosols) and Cambisols (Inceptisols) from the Eastern United States and Northeast Scotland

Biological activities greatly influence the formation of many soils, especially forest soils under cool humid climates. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of vegetation and soil biota on the formation of selected soils. Field morphology, micromorphology, and carbon and organic matter analysis were determined on six Podzols (Spodosols) and two Cambisols (Inceptisols) from the eastern United States and north-east Scotland. Humification of plant material by soil fauna and fungi occurs in all organic horizons. Thick organic coatings are observed on soil peds and rock fragments from the E1 to the Bs horizon in a Haplic Podzol from Clingmans Dome Mt., TN. Thin sections reveal large accumulations of root material in different stages of decomposition in the spodic horizons of a Haplic Podzol from Whiteface Mt., NY. Organic carbon ranges from 5.4 to 8.5% in the spodic B horizons of the Whiteface Mt. Podzol. Earthworms and enchytraeids have a great effect on the structure of the surface and subsurface horizons in the Dystric Cambisols from Huntly and Clashindarroch Forests, Scotland and a Cambic Podzol from the Corrie Burn Basin, Scotland. Podzols from Speymouth Forest, Scotland (Gleyic Podzol), Cling-mans Dome Mt., and Whiteface Mt. have thick organic horizons. The Podzols from the Flatwoods in Georgia, the Pine Barrens in New Jersey, the Corrie Burn Basin, and the Cambisol from Huntly Forest have only A horizons at the surface. The Clashindarroch Forest soil has a very thin organic horizon. Warm and humid climates and sandy parent material are responsible for thick E horizons and lack of thick organic horizons in the Flatwoods (Carbic Podzol) and Pine Barrens (Ferric Podzol) soils. Earthworms and enchytraeids thrive in the Corrie Burn Basin and Huntly Forest soils due to the vegetation and the highly weathered basic parent material. The site at Clashindarroch once carried oak, and then birch forest, both of which produce a mild litter and also encourage earthworm and enchytraeids. This fauna is responsible for much mixing of the topsoil. The present conifer vegetation will eventually produce a deep litter and cause podzolization.

Vitamin D and mortality: meta-analysis of individual participant data from a large consortium of cohort studies from Europe and the United States

Objective: To investigate the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations (25(OH)D) and mortality in a large consortium of cohort studies paying particular attention to potential age, sex, season, and country differences.

Design: Meta-analysis of individual participant data of eight prospective cohort studies from Europe and the US.

Setting: General population.

Participants: 26 018 men and women aged 50-79 years

Main outcome measures: All-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality.

Results: 25(OH)D concentrations varied strongly by season (higher in summer), country (higher in US and northern Europe) and sex (higher in men), but no consistent trend with age was observed. During follow-up, 6695 study participants died, among whom 2624 died of cardiovascular diseases and 2227 died of cancer. For each cohort and analysis, 25(OH)D quintiles were defined with cohort and subgroup specific cut-off values. Comparing bottom versus top quintiles resulted in a pooled risk ratio of 1.57 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.81) for all-cause mortality. Risk ratios for cardiovascular mortality were similar in magnitude to that for all-cause mortality in subjects both with and without a history of cardiovascular disease at baseline. With respect to cancer mortality, an association was only observed among subjects with a history of cancer (risk ratio, 1.70 (1.00 to 2.88)). Analyses using all quintiles suggest curvilinear, inverse, dose-response curves for the aforementioned relationships. No strong age, sex, season, or country specific differences were detected. Heterogeneity was low in most meta-analyses.

Conclusions: Despite levels of 25(OH)D strongly varying with country, sex, and season, the association between 25(OH)D level and all-cause and cause-specific mortality was remarkably consistent. Results from a long term randomised controlled trial addressing longevity are being awaited before vitamin D supplementation can be recommended in most individuals with low 25(OH)D levels.

Repeated measures of body mass index and C-reactive protein in relation to all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease: Results from the consortium on health and ageing network of cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Obesity has been linked with elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), and both have been associated with increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies have used a single ‘baseline’ measurement and such analyses cannot account for possible changes in these which may lead to a biased estimation of risk. Using four cohorts from CHANCES which had repeated measures in participants 50 years and older, multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) to examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and CRP with all-cause mortality and CVD. Being overweight (≥25–<30 kg/m2) or moderately obese (≥30–<35) tended to be associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to normal (≥18.5–<25): ESTHER, HR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.58–0.82) and 0.78 (0.63–0.97); Rotterdam, 0.86 (0.79–0.94) and 0.80 (0.72–0.89). A similar relationship was found, but only for overweight in Glostrup, HR (95 % CI) 0.88 (0.76–1.02); and moderately obese in Tromsø, HR (95 % CI) 0.79 (0.62–1.01). Associations were not evident between repeated measures of BMI and CVD. Conversely, increasing CRP concentrations, measured on more than one occasion, were associated with an increasing risk of mortality and CVD. Being overweight or moderately obese is associated with a lower risk of mortality, while CRP, independent of BMI, is positively associated with mortality and CVD risk. If inflammation links CRP and BMI, they may participate in distinct/independent pathways. Accounting for independent changes in risk factors over time may be crucial for unveiling their effects on mortality and disease morbidity.