Applying the expanding photosphere and standardized candle methods to Type II-Plateau supernovae at cosmologically significant redshifts . The distance to SN 2013eq

Based on optical imaging and spectroscopy of the Type II-Plateau SN 2013eq, we present a comparative study of commonly used distance determination methods based on Type II supernovae. The occurrence of SN 2013eq in the Hubble flow (z = 0.041 ± 0.001) prompted us to investigate the implications of the difference between "angular" and "luminosity" distances within the framework of the expanding photosphere method (EPM) that relies upon a relation between flux and angular size to yield a distance. Following a re-derivation of the basic equations of the EPM for SNe at non-negligible redshifts, we conclude that the EPM results in an angular distance. The observed flux should be converted into the SN rest frame and the angular size, θ, has to be corrected by a factor of (1 + z)2. Alternatively, the EPM angular distance can be converted to a luminosity distance by implementing a modification of the angular size. For SN 2013eq, we find EPM luminosity distances of DL = 151 ± 18 Mpc and DL = 164 ± 20 Mpc by making use of different sets of dilution factors taken from the literature. Application of the standardized candle method for Type II-P SNe results in an independent luminosity distance estimate (DL = 168 ± 16 Mpc) that is consistent with the EPM estimate. Spectra of SN 2013eq are available in the Weizmann Interactive Supernova data REPository (WISeREP): http://wiserep.weizmann.ac.il

Building a 'Repository of Science': the importance of integrating Biobanks within molecular pathology programmes

Repositories containing high quality human biospecimens linked with robust and relevant clinical and pathological information are required for the discovery and validation of biomarkers for disease diagnosis, progression and response to treatment. Current molecular based discovery projects using either low or high throughput technologies rely heavily on ready access to such sample collections. It is imperative that modern biobanks align with molecular diagnostic pathology practices not only to provide the type of samples needed for discovery projects but also to ensure requirements for ongoing sample collections and the future needs of researchers are adequately addressed. Biobanks within comprehensive molecular pathology programmes are perfectly positioned to offer more than just tumour derived biospecimens; for example, they have the ability to facilitate researchers gaining access to sample metadata such as digitised scans of tissue samples annotated prior to macrodissection for molecular diagnostics or pseudoanonymised clinical outcome data or research results retrieved from other users utilising the same or overlapping cohorts of samples. Furthermore, biobanks can work with molecular diagnostic laboratories to develop standardized methodologies for the acquisition and storage of samples required for new approaches to research such as ‘liquid biopsies’ which will ultimately feed into the test validations required in large prospective clinical studies in order to implement liquid biopsy approaches for routine clinical practice. We draw on our experience in Northern Ireland to discuss how this harmonised approach of biobanks working synergistically with molecular pathology programmes is key for the future success of precision medicine.

Outlier effects on robust joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data

Robust joint modelling is an emerging field of research. Through the advancements in electronic patient healthcare records, the popularly of joint modelling approaches has grown rapidly in recent years providing simultaneous analysis of longitudinal and survival data. This research advances previous work through the development of a novel robust joint modelling methodology for one of the most common types of standard joint models, that which links a linear mixed model with a Cox proportional hazards model. Through t-distributional assumptions, longitudinal outliers are accommodated with their detrimental impact being down weighed and thus providing more efficient and reliable estimates. The robust joint modelling technique and its major benefits are showcased through the analysis of Northern Irish end stage renal disease patients. With an ageing population and growing prevalence of chronic kidney disease within the United Kingdom, there is a pressing demand to investigate the detrimental relationship between the changing haemoglobin levels of haemodialysis patients and their survival. As outliers within the NI renal data were found to have significantly worse survival, identification of outlying individuals through robust joint modelling may aid nephrologists to improve patient's survival. A simulation study was also undertaken to explore the difference between robust and standard joint models in the presence of increasing proportions and extremity of longitudinal outliers. More efficient and reliable estimates were obtained by robust joint models with increasing contrast between the robust and standard joint models when a greater proportion of more extreme outliers are present. Through illustration of the gains in efficiency and reliability of parameters when outliers exist, the potential of robust joint modelling is evident. The research presented in this thesis highlights the benefits and stresses the need to utilise a more robust approach to joint modelling in the presence of longitudinal outliers.

Hierarchical Task Network Planning with Common-Sense Reasoning for Multiple-People Behaviour Analysis

Safety on public transport is a major concern for the relevant authorities. We
address this issue by proposing an automated surveillance platform which combines data from video, infrared and pressure sensors. Data homogenisation and integration is achieved by a distributed architecture based on communication middleware that resolves interconnection issues, thereby enabling data modelling. A common-sense knowledge base models and encodes knowledge about public-transport platforms and the actions and activities of passengers. Trajectory data from passengers is modelled as a time-series of human activities. Common-sense knowledge and rules are then applied to detect inconsistencies or errors in the data interpretation. Lastly, the rationality that characterises human behaviour is also captured here through a bottom-up Hierarchical Task Network planner that, along with common-sense, corrects misinterpretations to explain passenger behaviour. The system is validated using a simulated bus saloon scenario as a case-study. Eighteen video sequences were recorded with up to six passengers. Four metrics were used to evaluate performance. The system, with an accuracy greater than 90% for each of the four metrics, was found to outperform a rule-base system and a system containing planning alone.

Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer’s disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer’s disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer’s disease (P = 4.9 × 10−26). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10−19). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77–80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer’s disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer’s disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes.