Tenant Right and Agrarian Society in Ulster 1600-1870

The book has been described by various Irish historians as "the definitive treatment of that most peculiar institution--the Ulster Custom--and its tangled relationship with irish land and politics" (Liam Kennedy), "a brilliantly reconceptualised sketch of the Irish land question" (David Miller). "All previous discussion," according to another reviewer, "must take second place to Dowling's exhaustive survey, which draws on the whole range of surviving estate records to examine the theory and practice of tenant right across three centuries" (Sean Connolly).

Hierarchical Bayesian models in ecology: Reconstructing species interaction networks from non-homogeneous species abundance data

The relationships among organisms and their surroundings can be of immense complexity. To describe and understand an ecosystem as a tangled bank, multiple ways of interaction and their effects have to be considered, such as predation, competition, mutualism and facilitation. Understanding the resulting interaction networks is a challenge in changing environments, e.g. to predict knock-on effects of invasive species and to understand how climate change impacts biodiversity. The elucidation of complex ecological systems with their interactions will benefit enormously from the development of new machine learning tools that aim to infer the structure of interaction networks from field data. In the present study, we propose a novel Bayesian regression and multiple changepoint model (BRAM) for reconstructing species interaction networks from observed species distributions. The model has been devised to allow robust inference in the presence of spatial autocorrelation and distributional heterogeneity. We have evaluated the model on simulated data that combines a trophic niche model with a stochastic population model on a 2-dimensional lattice, and we have compared the performance of our model with L1-penalized sparse regression (LASSO) and non-linear Bayesian networks with the BDe scoring scheme. In addition, we have applied our method to plant ground coverage data from the western shore of the Outer Hebrides with the objective to infer the ecological interactions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Realist evaluation - promise, problems and practicalities

Realist evaluation is an innovative, multi-method approach to evaluating the effectiveness of complex health care interventions that is having an increasing impact on the research community. Drawing on their experience doing four realist evaluations in diverse areas of healthcare, the authors offer a comprehensive overview and critique of essential theory and practice. The first paper (Realist review and realist evaluation: an introduction) introduces the main components of the approach and shows how realist review can support realist evaluation. The second paper (Concepts and methodology for realist evaluation: help or hindrance?) provides further detail on the key concepts, shows how they can be operationalised, and discusses the advantages and difficulties of using these ideas. Following these two papers introducing and illustrating the major concepts, the third paper (Realist Evaluation: a critical realist critique) takes a step back to re-consider realist evaluation in relation to its critical realist roots, asking whether it leads to evaluators abandoning the attempt to understand (and if necessary challenge) the underlying values of health care interventions and contenting themselves merely with explicating the factors that help or hinder implementation. The fourth and final paper (Data analysis and theory development in realist evaluation) plunges back into the tangled undergrowth of multiple-method data collection and shows how disparate forms of data can be synthesised for theory development, and the results presented in a form that is useful to practitioners and policy-makers.

Why is Russia flexing its muscles in the Middle East?

Syria’s bloody civil war suddenly became even more tangled in September with the start of a massive Russian bombing campaign on targets in the country. Two historians offer their personal takes on why Vladimir Putin ordered airstrikes