How many bad apples are in a bunch? An experimental investigation of perceived pesticide residue risks

Subjective risks of having contaminated apples elicited via the Exchangeability Method (EM) are examined in this study. In particular, as the experimental design allows us to investigate the validity of elicited risk measures, we examine the magnitude of differences between valid and invalid observations. In addition, using an econometric model, we also explore the effect of consumers’ socioeconomic status and attitudes toward food safety on subjects’ perceptions of pesticide residues in apples. Results suggest first, that consumers do not expect an increase in the number of apples containing only one pesticide residue, but, rather, in the number of those apples with traces of multiple residues. Second, we find that valid subjective risk measures do not significantly diverge from invalid ones, indicative of little effect of internal validity on the actual magnitude of subjective risks. Finally, we show that subjective risks depend on age, education, a subject’s ties to the apple industry, and consumer association membership.

Risk assessment of E-Commerce projects using evidential reasoning

The purpose of this study is to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risks in E-Commerce (EC) projects. Competitive software businesses have the critical task of assessing the risk in the software system development life cycle. This can be conducted on the basis of conventional probabilities, but limited appropriate information is available and so a complete set of probabilities is not available. In such problems, where the analysis is highly subjective and related to vague, incomplete, uncertain or inexact information, the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory of evidence offers a potential advantage. We use a direct way of reasoning in a single step (i.e., extended DS theory) to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risk in EC projects. This consists of five stages 1) establishing knowledge base and setting rule strengths, 2) collecting evidence and data, 3) determining evidence and rule strength to a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of a single step reasoning process, 4) combining prior mass and different rules; i.e., the second half of the single step reasoning process, 5) finally, evaluating the belief interval for the best support decision of EC project. We test the system by using potential risk factors associated with EC development and the results indicate that the system is promising way of assisting an EC project manager in identifying potential risk factors and the corresponding project risks.

Negotiation of risk in sexual relationships and reproductive decision-making amongst HIV sero-different couples

The paper focuses on the ways in which medical discourses of HIV transmission risk, personal bodily meanings and reproductive decision-making are re-negotiated within the context of sero-different relationships, in which one partner is known to be HIV-positive. Eighteen in-depth interviews were conducted with 10 individuals in Northern Ireland during 2008–2009. Drawing on an embodied sociological approach, the findings show that physical pleasure, love, commitment, a desire to conceive without medical interventions and a dislike of condoms within regular ongoing relationships, shaped individuals' sense of biological risk. In addition, the subjective logic that a partner had not previously become infected through unprotected sex prior to knowledge of HIV status and the added security of an undetectable viral load significantly impacted upon women's and, especially, men's decisions to have unprotected sex in order to conceive. The findings speak to the importance of reframing public health campaigns and clinical counselling discourses on HIV risk transmission to acknowledge how couples negotiate this risk, alongside pleasure and commitment within ongoing relationships.

Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

An important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we, therefore, propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decisionmaker’s attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process.

Social Class Variation in Risk: A Comparative Analysis of the Dynamics of Economic Vulnerability

A joint concern with multidimensionality and dynamics is a defining feature of the pervasive use of the terminology of social exclusion in the European Union. The notion of social exclusion focuses attention on economic vulnerability in the sense of exposure to risk and uncertainty. Sociological concern with these issues has been associated with the thesis that risk and uncertainty have become more pervasive and extend substantially beyond the working class. This paper combines features of recent approaches to statistical modelling of poverty dynamics and multidimensional deprivation in order to develop our understanding of the dynamics of economic vulnerability. An analysis involving nine countries and covering the first five waves of the European Community Household Panel shows that, across nations and time, it is possible to identify an economically vulnerable class. This class is characterized by heightened risk of falling below a critical resource level, exposure to material deprivation and experience of subjective economic stress. Cross-national differentials in persistence of vulnerability are wider than in the case of income poverty and less affected by measurement error. Economic vulnerability profiles vary across welfare regimes in a manner broadly consistent with our expectations. Variation in the impact of social class within and across countries provides no support for the argument that its role in structuring such risk has become much less important. Our findings suggest that it is possible to accept the importance of the emergence of new forms of social risk and acknowledge the significance of efforts to develop welfare states policies involving a shift of opportunities and decision making on to individuals without accepting the 'death of social class' thesis.

Understanding of BRCA1/2 genetic tests results:the importance of objective and subjective numeracy

Background: The majority of women (71%) who undergo BRCA1/2 testing—designed to identify genetic mutations associated with increased risk of cancer—receive results that are termed ‘ambiguous’ or ‘uninformative negative’. How women interpret these results and the association with numerical ability was examined. Methods: In this study, 477 women at increased risk for breast and ovarian cancer were recruited via the Cancer Genetics Network. They were presented with information about the four different possible BRCA1/2 test results—positive, true negative, ambiguous and uninformative negative—and asked to indicate which of six options represents the best response. Participants were then asked which treatment options they thought a woman receiving the results should discuss with her doctor. Finally, participants completed measures of objective and subjective numeracy. Results: Almost all of the participants correctly interpreted the positive and negative BRCA1/2 genetic test results. However, they encountered difficulties interpreting the uninformative and ambiguous BRCA1/2 genetic test results. Participants were almost equally likely to think either that the woman had learned nothing from the test result or that she was as likely to develop cancer as the average woman. Highly numerate participants were more likely to correctly interpret inconclusive test results (ambiguous, OR = 1.62; 95% CI [1.28, 2.07]; p < 0.001; uninformative, OR = 1.40; 95% CI [1.10, 1.80]). Discussion: Given the medical and psychological ramifications of genetic testing, healthcare professionals should consider devoting extra effort to ensuring proper comprehension of ambiguous and uninformative negative test results by women. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Shared decision making in patients at risk of cancer: The role of domain and numeracy

Background
Shared decision making has become an integral part of medical consultation. Research has, however, reported wide differences in individuals' desires to be involved in the decision-making process, and these differences in preferences are likely to be the result of a number of factors including age, education and numeracy.

Objective
To investigate whether patients at genetic risk for cancer had preferences for shared decision making that differed depending on medical domain (general health vs. cancer) and whether decision preferences are linked to numeracy abilities.

Methods
Four hundred and seventy-six women who consented to participate in response to an email sent by a local branch of the U.S.-based Cancer Genetics Network (CGN) to its members. Participants completed the Control Preference Scale, as well as an objective and subjective numeracy scales.

Results
Decision domain (cancer vs. general health) was not associated with women's preferences for involvement in decision making. Objective and subjective numeracy predicted a preference for decision involvement in general, and only objective numeracy was predictive with regard to cancer.

Conclusion
Participants were equally likely to state they wanted to play an active, collaborative or passive role in both medical domains (general and cancer). High-numeracy participants were more likely to express a desire for an active role in general and in case they were diagnosed with cancer.

Practice implications
Health authorities' recommendations to clinicians to include patients in their medical decisions are supported by patients' desires, and clinicians should be cognizant of their patients' preferences as well as their numeracy skills.

Overconfidence, sexual health awareness and sexual health risk among young female users of sexual health clinics

This study explored the patterning of young people’s sexual health competence, and how this relates to sexual health outcomes. A survey of 381 young people attending two sexual health clinics in Northern Ireland was carried out between 2009 and 2010. Latent profile analysis of self-rated decision making, self-rated sexual health knowledge, and knowledge of sexually transmitted disease questionnaire scores was used to determine typologies of sexual health competence. Analysis revealed three categories of sexual health competence and explored their association with other behaviours and social characteristics. Young people’s subjective opinion of their sexual health competency, when not matched with a corresponding knowledge of sexual health, could place people at an increased risk of poor sexual health outcomes. Greater levels of peer pressure to have sex and early sexual debut were associated with poorer sexual health knowledge. This finding warrants further investigation, as the importance of self-perceived competence for sexual health screening and education programmes are considerable.

Disordered sleep and myopia risk among Chinese children

PURPOSE: Disordered sleep and myopia are increasingly prevalent among Chinese children. Similar pathways may be involved in regulation of both sleep cycles and eye growth. We therefore sought to examine the association between disordered sleep and myopia in this group. METHODS: Urban primary school children participating in a clinical trial on myopia and outdoor activity underwent automated cycloplegic refraction with subjective refinement. Parents answered questions about children's sleep duration, sleep disorders (Children's Sleep Habits Questionnaire [CSHQ]), near work and time spent outdoors. RESULTS: Among 1970 children, 1902 (96.5%, mean [standard deviation SD] age 9.80 [0.44] years, 53.1% boys) completed refraction and questionnaires. Myopia < = -0.50 Diopters was present in both eyes of 588 (30.9%) children (1329/3804 = 34.9% of eyes) and 1129 children (59.4%) had abnormal CSHQ scores (> 41). In logistic regression models by eye, odds of myopia < = -0.50D increased with worse CSHQ score (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.01 per point, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] [1.001, 1.02], P = 0.014) and more night-time sleep (OR 1.02, 95% CI [1.01, 1.04, P = 0.002], while male sex (OR 0.82, 95% CI [0.70, 0.95], P = 0.008) and time outdoors (OR = 0.97, 95% CI [0.95, 0.99], P = 0.011) were associated with less myopia. The association between sleep duration and myopia was not significant (p = 0.199) for total (night + midday) sleep. CONCLUSIONS: Myopia and disordered sleep were both common in this cohort, but we did not find consistent evidence for an association between the two. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT00848900.