Modelling the influence of biotic factors on species distribution patterns

Biotic interactions can have large effects on species distributions yet their role in shaping species ranges is seldom explored due to historical difficulties in incorporating biotic factors into models without a priori knowledge on interspecific interactions. Improved SDMs, which account for biotic factors and do not require a priori knowledge on species interactions, are needed to fully understand species distributions. Here, we model the influence of abiotic and biotic factors on species distribution patterns and explore the robustness of distributions under future climate change. We fit hierarchical spatial models using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) for lagomorph species throughout Europe and test the predictive ability of models containing only abiotic factors against models containing abiotic and biotic factors. We account for residual spatial autocorrelation using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. Model outputs are used to estimate areas in which abiotic and biotic factors determine species’ ranges. INLA models containing both abiotic and biotic factors had substantially better predictive ability than models containing abiotic factors only, for all but one of the four species. In models containing abiotic and biotic factors, both appeared equally important as determinants of lagomorph ranges, but the influences were spatially heterogeneous. Parts of widespread lagomorph ranges highly influenced by biotic factors will be less robust to future changes in climate, whereas parts of more localised species ranges highly influenced by the environment may be less robust to future climate. SDMs that do not explicitly include biotic factors are potentially misleading and omit a very important source of variation. For the field of species distribution modelling to advance, biotic factors must be taken into account in order to improve the reliability of predicting species distribution patterns both presently and under future climate change.

Energy efficiency in the Chinese provinces: a fixed effects stochastic frontier spatial Durbin error panel analysis

Energy efficiency improvement has been a key objective of China’s long-term energy policy. In this paper, we derive single-factor technical energy efficiency (abbreviated as energy efficiency) in China from multi-factor efficiency estimated by means of a translog production function and a stochastic frontier model on the basis of panel data on 29 Chinese provinces over the period 2003–2011. We find that average energy efficiency has been increasing over the research period and that the provinces with the highest energy efficiency are at the east coast and the ones with the lowest in the west, with an intermediate corridor in between. In the analysis of the determinants of energy efficiency by means of a spatial Durbin error model both factors in the own province and in first-order neighboring provinces are considered. Per capita income in the own province has a positive effect. Furthermore, foreign direct investment and population density in the own province and in neighboring provinces have positive effects, whereas the share of state-owned enterprises in Gross Provincial Product in the own province and in neighboring provinces has negative effects. From the analysis it follows that inflow of foreign direct investment and reform of state-owned enterprises are important policy handles.

A field experiment on a steel Gerber-truss bridge for damage detection utilizing vehicle-induced vibrations

A field experiment was conducted on a real continuous steel Gerber-truss bridge with artificial damage applied. This article summarizes the results of the experiment for bridge damage detection utilizing traffic-induced vibrations. It investigates the sensitivities of a number of quantities to bridge damage including the identified modal parameters and their statistical patterns, Nair’s damage indicator and its statistical pattern and different sets of measurement points. The modal parameters are identified by autoregressive time-series models. The decision on bridge health condition is made and the sensitivity of variables is evaluated with the aid of the Mahalanobis–Taguchi system, a multivariate pattern recognition tool. Several observations are made as follows. For the modal parameters, although bridge damage detection can be achieved by performing Mahalanobis–Taguchi system on certain modal parameters of certain sets of measurement points, difficulties were faced in subjective selection of meaningful bridge modes and low sensitivity of the statistical pattern of the modal parameters to damage. For Nair’s damage indicator, bridge damage detection could be achieved by performing Mahalanobis–Taguchi system on Nair’s damage indicators of most sets of measurement points. As a damage indicator, Nair’s damage indicator was superior to the modal parameters. Three main advantages were observed: it does not require any subjective decision in calculating Nair’s damage indicator, thus potential human errors can be prevented and an automatic detection task can be achieved; its statistical pattern has high sensitivity to damage and, finally, it is flexible regarding the choice of sets of measurement points.