Can diagnostic triage by general practitioners or rheumatology nurses improve the positive predictive value of referrals to early arthritis clinics?

Objectives: To determine whether diagnostic triage by general practitioners (GPs) or rheumatology nurses (RNs) can improve the positive predictive value of referrals to early arthritis clinics (EACs).

Methods: Four GPs and two RNs were trained in the assessment of early in?ammatory arthritis (IA) by four visits to an EAC supervised by hospital rheumatologists. Patients referred to one of three EACs were recruited for study and assessed independently by a GP, an RN and one of six rheumatologists. Each assessor was asked to record their clinical ?ndings and whether they considered the patient to have IA. Each was then asked to judge the appropriateness of the referral according to predetermined guidelines. The rheumatologists had been shown previously to have a satisfactory level of agreement in the assessment of IA.

Results: Ninety-six patients were approached and all consented to take part in the study. In 49 cases (51%), the rheumatologist judged that the patient had IA and that the referral was appropriate. The assessments of GPs and RNs were compared with those of the rheumatologists. Levels of agreement were measured using the kappa value, where 1.0 represents total unanimity. The kappa value was
0.77 for the GPs when compared with the rheumatologists and 0.79 for the RNs. Signi?cant stiffness in the morning or after rest and objective joint swelling were the most important clinical features enabling the GPs and RNs to discriminate between IA and non-IA conditions.

Conclusion: Diagnostic triage by GPs or RNs improved the positive predictive value of referrals to an EAC with a degree of accuracy approaching that of a group of experienced rheumatologists.

Zipf and Type-Token rules for the English, Spanish, Irish and Latin languages

The Zipf curves of log of frequency against log of rank for a large English corpus of 500 million word tokens, 689,000 word types and for a large Spanish corpus of 16 million word tokens, 139,000 word types are shown to have the usual slope close to –1 for rank less than 5,000, but then for a higher rank they turn to give a slope close to –2. This is apparently mainly due to foreign words and place names. Other Zipf curves for highlyinflected Indo-European languages, Irish and ancient Latin, are also given. Because of the larger number of word types per lemma, they remain flatter than the English curve maintaining a slope of –1 until turning points of about ranks 30,000 for Irish and 10,000 for Latin. A formula which calculates the number of tokens given the number of types is derived in terms of the rank at the turning point, 5,000 for both English and Spanish, 30,000 for Irish and 10,000 for Latin.