Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

Abstract In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates.

Classifying Network Protocols: A ‘2 Way’ Flow Approach

The identification and classification of network traffic and protocols is a vital step in many quality of service and security systems. Traffic classification strategies must evolve, alongside the protocols utilising the Internet, to overcome the use of ephemeral or masquerading port numbers and transport layer encryption. This research expands the concept of using machine learning on the initial statistics of flow of packets to determine its underlying protocol. Recognising the need for efficient training/retraining of a classifier and the requirement for fast classification, the authors investigate a new application of k-means clustering referred to as 'two-way' classification. The 'two-way' classification uniquely analyses a bidirectional flow as two unidirectional flows and is shown, through experiments on real network traffic, to improve classification accuracy by as much as 18% when measured against similar proposals. It achieves this accuracy while generating fewer clusters, that is, fewer comparisons are needed to classify a flow. A 'two-way' classification offers a new way to improve accuracy and efficiency of machine learning statistical classifiers while still maintaining the fast training times associated with the k-means.

Game-­theoretic Resource Allocation with Real-­time Probabilistic Surveillance Information

Game-theoretic security resource allocation problems have generated significant interest in the area of designing and developing security systems. These approaches traditionally utilize the Stackelberg game model for security resource scheduling in order to improve the protection of critical assets. The basic assumption in Stackelberg games is that a defender will act first, then an attacker will choose their best response after observing the defender’s strategy commitment (e.g., protecting a specific asset). Thus, it requires an attacker’s full or partial observation of a defender’s strategy. This assumption is unrealistic in real-time threat recognition and prevention. In this paper, we propose a new solution concept (i.e., a method to predict how a game will be played) for deriving the defender’s optimal strategy based on the principle of acceptable costs of minimax regret. Moreover, we demonstrate the advantages of this solution concept by analyzing its properties.

Match-fixing and Money-laundering

his essay is premised on the following: a conspiracy to fix or otherwise manipulate the outcome of a sporting event for profitable purpose. That conspiracy is in turn predicated on the conspirators’ capacity to: (a) ensure that the fix takes place as pre-determined; (b) manipulate the betting markets that surround the sporting event in question; and (c) collect their winnings undetected by either the betting industry’s security systems or the attention of any national regulatory body or law enforcement agency.

Unlike many essays on this topic, this contribution does not focus on the “fix”– part (a) of the above equation. It does not seek to explain how or why a participant or sports official might facilitate a betting scam through either on-field behaviour that manipulates the outcome of a game or by presenting others with privileged inside information in advance of a game. Neither does this contribution seek to give any real insight into the second part of the above equation: how such conspirators manipulate a sports betting market by playing or laying the handicap or in-play or other offered betting odds. In fact, this contribution is not really about the mechanics of sports betting or match fixing at all; rather it is about the sometimes under explained reason why match fixing has reportedly become increasingly attractive as of late to international crime syndicates. That reason relates to the fact that given the traditional liquidity of gambling markets, sports betting can, and has long been, an attractively accessible conduit for criminal syndicates to launder the proceeds of crime. Accordingly, the term “winnings”, noted in part (c) of the above equation, takes on an altogether more nefarious meaning.

This essay’s attempt to review the possible links between match fixing in sport, gambling-related “winnings” and money laundering is presented in four parts.

First, some context will be given to what is meant by money laundering, how it is currently policed internationally and, most importantly, how the growth of online gambling presents a unique set of vulnerabilities and opportunities to launder the proceeds of crime. The globalisation of organised crime, sports betting and transnational financial services now means that money laundering opportunities have moved well beyond a flutter on the horses at your local racetrack or at the roulette table of your nearest casino. The growth of online gambling platforms means that at a click it is possible for the proceeds of crime in one jurisdiction to be placed on a betting market in another jurisdiction with the winnings drawn down and laundered in a third jurisdiction and thus the internationalisation of gambling-related money laundering threatens the integrity of sport globally.

Second, and referring back to the infamous hearings of the US Senate Special Committee to Investigate Organised Crime in Interstate Commerce of the early 1950s, (“the Kefauver Committee”), this article will begin by illustrating the long standing interest of organised crime gangs – in this instance, various Mafia families in the United States – in money laundering via sports gambling-related means.

Third, and using the seminal 2009 report “Money Laundering through the Football Sector” by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF, an inter-governmental body established in 1989 to promote effective implementation of legal, regulatory and operational measures for combating money laundering, terrorist financing and other related threats to the integrity of the international financial system), this essay seeks to assess the vulnerabilities of international sport to match fixing, as motivated in part by the associated secondary criminality of tax evasion and transnational economic crime.

The fourth and concluding parts of the essay spin from problems to possible solutions. The underlying premise here is that heretofore there has been an insularity to the way that sports organisations have both conceptualised and sought to address the match fixing threat e.g., if we (in sport) initiate player education programmes; establish integrity units; enforce codes of conduct and sanctions strictly; then our integrity or brand should be protected. This essay argues that, although these initiatives are important, the source and process of match fixing is beyond sport’s current capacity, as are the possible solutions.

An effective key generation system using improved channel reciprocity

In physical layer security systems there is a clear need to exploit the radio link characteristics to automatically generate an encryption key between two end points. The success of the key generation depends on the channel reciprocity, which is impacted by the non-simultaneous measurements and the white nature of the noise. In this paper, an OFDM subcarriers' channel responses based key generation system with enhanced channel reciprocity is proposed. By theoretically modelling the OFDM subcarriers' channel responses, the channel reciprocity is modelled and analyzed. A low pass filter is accordingly designed to improve the channel reciprocity by suppressing the noise. This feature is essential in low SNR environments in order to reduce the risk of the failure of the information reconciliation phase during key generation. The simulation results show that the low pass filter improves the channel reciprocity, decreases the key disagreement, and effectively increases the success of the key generation.

Man-in-the-Middle Attack Test-bed Investigating Cyber-security Vulnerabilities in Smart Grid SCADA Systems

The increased complexity and interconnectivity of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems in the Smart Grid has exposed them to a wide range of cyber-security issues, and there are a multitude of potential access points for cyber attackers. This paper presents a SCADA-specific cyber-security test-bed which contains SCADA software and communication infrastructure. This test-bed is used to investigate an Address Resolution Protocol (ARP) spoofing based man-in-the-middle attack. Finally, the paper proposes a future work plan which focuses on applying intrusion detection and prevention technology to address cyber-security issues in SCADA systems.

Intrusion Detection System for Network Security in Synchrophasor Systems

Synchrophasor systems will play a crucial role in next generation Smart Grid monitoring, protection and control. However these systems also introduce a multitude of potential vulnerabilities from malicious and inadvertent attacks, which may render erroneous operation or severe damage. This paper proposes a Synchrophasor Specific Intrusion Detection System (SSIDS) for malicious cyber attack and unintended misuse. The SSIDS comprises a heterogeneous whitelist and behavior-based approach to detect known attack types and unknown and so-called ‘zero-day’ vulnerabilities and attacks. The paper describes reconnaissance, Man-in-the-Middle (MITM) and Denial-of-Service (DoS) attack types executed against a practical synchrophasor system which are used to validate the real-time effectiveness of the proposed SSIDS cyber detection method.

Security Enhancement of Cooperative Single Carrier Systems

In this paper, the impact of multiple active eavesdroppers on cooperative single carrier systems with multiple relays and multiple destinations is examined. To achieve the secrecy diversity gains in the form of opportunistic selection, a two-stage scheme is proposed for joint relay and destination selection, in which, after the selection of the relay with the minimum effective maximum signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to a cluster of eavesdroppers, the destination that has the maximum SNR from the chosen relay is selected. In order to accurately assess the secrecy performance, the exact and asymptotic expressions are obtained in closed-form for several security metrics including the secrecy outage probability, the probability of non-zero secrecy rate, and the ergodic secrecy rate in frequency selective fading. Based on the asymptotic analysis, key design parameters such as secrecy diversity gain, secrecy array gain, secrecy multiplexing gain, and power cost are characterized, from which new insights are drawn. Moreover, it is concluded that secrecy performance limits occur when the average received power at the eavesdropper is proportional to the counterpart at the destination. Specifically, for the secrecy outage probability, it is confirmed that the secrecy diversity gain collapses to zero with outage floor, whereas for the ergodic secrecy rate, it is confirmed confirm that its slope collapses to zero with capacity ceiling.

Cooperative Beamforming and User Selection for Improving the Security of Relay-aided Systems

A relay network in which a source wishes to convey a confidential message to a legitimate destination with the assistance of trusted relays is considered. In particular, cooperative beamforming and user selection techniques are applied to protect the confidential message. The secrecy rate (SR) and secrecy outage probability (SOP) of the network are investigated first, and a tight upper bound for the SR and an exact formula for the SOP are derived. Next, asymptotic approximations for the SR and SOP in the high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime are derived for two different schemes: i) cooperative beamforming and ii) multiuser selection. Further, a new concept of cooperative diversity gain, namely, adapted cooperative diversity gain (ACDG), which can be used to evaluate security level of a cooperative relaying network, is investigated. It is shown that the ACDG of cooperative beamforming is equal to the conventional cooperative diversity gain of traditional multiple-input single-output networks, while the ACDG of the multiuser scenario is equal to that of traditional single-input multiple-output networks.

STPA-SafeSec: Safety and Security Analysis for Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems tightly integrate physical processes and information and communication technologies. As today’s critical infrastructures, e.g., the power grid or water distribution networks, are complex cyber-physical systems, ensuring their safety and security becomes of paramount importance. Traditional safety analysis methods, such as HAZOP, are ill-suited to assess these systems. Furthermore, cybersecurity vulnerabilities are often not considered critical, because their effects on the physical processes are not fully understood. In this work, we present STPA-SafeSec, a novel analysis methodology for both safety and security. Its results show the dependencies between cybersecurity vulnerabilities and system safety. Using this information, the most effective mitigation strategies to ensure safety and security of the system can be readily identified. We apply STPA-SafeSec to a use case in the power grid domain, and highlight its benefits.

WLAN Security Processor

A novel wireless local area network (WLAN) security processor is described in this paper. It is designed to offload security encapsulation processing from the host microprocessor in an IEEE 802.11i compliant medium access control layer to a programmable hardware accelerator. The unique design, which comprises dedicated cryptographic instructions and hardware coprocessors, is capable of performing wired equivalent privacy, temporal key integrity protocol, counter mode with cipher block chaining message authentication code protocol, and wireless robust authentication protocol. Existing solutions to wireless security have been implemented on hardware devices and target specific WLAN protocols whereas the programmable security processor proposed in this paper provides support for all WLAN protocols and thus, can offer backwards compatibility as well as future upgrade ability as standards evolve. It provides this additional functionality while still achieving equivalent throughput rates to existing architectures. © 2006 IEEE.

A framework for assessing the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks

Modem society depends on complex agro-ecological and trading systems to provide food for urban residents, yet there are few tools available to assess whether these systems are vulnerable to future disturbances. We propose a preliminary framework to assess the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks based on landscape ecology's 'Panarchy Framework'. According to Panarchy, ecosystem vulnerability is determined by three generic characteristics: (1) the wealth available in the system, (2) how connected the system is, and (3) how much diversity exists in the system. In this framework, wealthy, non-diverse, tightly connected systems are highly vulnerable. The wealth of food systems can be measured using the approach pioneered by development economists to assess how poverty affects food security. Diversity can be measured using the tools investors use to measure the diversity of investment portfolios to assess financial risk. The connectivity of a system can be evaluated with the tools chemists use to assess the pathways chemicals use to flow through the environment. This approach can lead to better tools for creating policy designed to reduce vulnerability, and can help urban or regional planners identify where food systems are vulnerable to shocks and disturbances that may occur in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.