Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

Abstract In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates.

Huddling in groups leads to daily energy savings in free-living African Four-Striped Grass Mice, Rhabdomys pumilio

1. Free-living animals make complex decisions associated with optimizing energy and nutrient intake. In environments where ambient temperatures fall below the thermoneutral zone, homeotherms must choose whether or not to forage, how long and what to forage for, and whether or not to perform activities that conserve energy.

Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000

Genuine Savings (GS), also known as ‘net adjusted savings’, is a composite indicator of the sustainability of economic development. Genuine Savings reflects year-on-year changes in the total wealth or capital of a country, including net investment in produced capita, investment in human capital, depletion of natural resources, and damage caused by pollution. A negative Genuine Savings rate suggests that the stock of national wealth is declining and that future utility must be less than current utility, indicating that economic development is non-sustainable (Hamilton and Clemens, 1999). We make use of data over a 150 year period to examine the relationship between Genuine Savings and a number of indicators of well-being over time, and compare the relative changes in human, produced, and components of natural capital over the period. Overall, we find that the magnitude of genuine savings is positively related to changes in future consumption, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. However, the relationships between genuine savings and infant mortality or average heights are less clear.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long -term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of javascript:void(0);a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability.

A Sustainable Century? Genuine Savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-2000

This chapter traces the long-run development of Genuine Savings (GS) using a panel of eleven countries during the twentieth century. This panel covers a number of developed countries (Great Britain, Germany, Switzerland, France, the US, and Australia) as well as a set of resource-abundant countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico). These countries represent approximately 50 percent of the world’s output in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1950, and include large economies and small open economies, and resource-rich and resource-scarce countries, thus allowing us to compare their historical experiences. Components of GS considered include physical and human capital as well as resource extraction and pollution damages. Generally, we find evidence of positive GS over the course of the twentieth century, although the two World Wars and the Great Depression left considerable marks. Also, we found striking differences between Latin American and developed countries when Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is included; this could be a signal of natural resource curse or technological gaps unnoticed in previous works.

Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial of Withdrawal of Inhaled Corticosteroids in Cystic Fibrosis

Rationale: Lung inflammation and injury is critical in cystic fibrosis. An ideal antiinflammatory agent has not been identified but inhaled corticosteroids are widely used despite lack of evidence.

Objectives: To test the safety of withdrawal of inhaled corticosteroids with the hypothesis this would not be associated with an earlier onset of acute chest exacerbations.

Methods: Multicenter randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial in 18 pediatric and adult UK centers. Eligibility criteria included age > 6.0 yr, FEV1 ? 40% predicted, and corticosteroid use > 3 mo. During the 2-mo run-in period, all patients received fluticasone; they then took either fluticasone or placebo for 6 mo.

Measurements and Main Results: Fluticasone group: n = 84, median age 14.6 yr, mean (SD) FEV1 76% (18); placebo group: n = 87, median age 15.8 yr, mean (SD) FEV1 76% (18). There was no difference in time to first exacerbation (primary outcome) with hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.07 (0.68 to 1.70) for fluticasone versus placebo. There was no effect of age, atopy, corticosteroid dose, FEV1, or Pseudomonas aeruginosa status. There was no change in lung function or differences in antibiotic or rescue bronchodilator use. Fewer patients in the fluticasone group withdrew from the study due to lung-related adverse events (9 vs. 15%); with a relative risk (95% confidence interval) of 0.59 (0.23–1.48) fluticasone versus placebo.

Conclusions: In this study population (applicable to 40% of patients with cystic fibrosis in the UK), it appears safe to consider stopping inhaled corticosteroids. Potential advantages will be to reduce the drug burden on patients, reduce adverse effects, and make financial savings.

Microcontroller based double beam modulation system for atomic scattering experiments

Double beam modulation is widely used in atomic collision experiments in the case where the noise arising froth each of the beams exceeds the measured signal. A method for minimizing the statistical uncertainty in a measured signal in a given time period is discussed, and a flexible modulation and counting system based on a low cost PIC microcontroller is described. This device is capable of modifying the acquisition parameters in real time during the course of an experimental run. It is shown that typical savings in data acquisition time of approximately 30% can be achieved using this optimized modulation scheme.

The energetics of huddling in two species of mole-rat (Rodentia: Bathyergidae)

Small rodents with a large surf ace-area-to-volume ratio and a high thermal conductance are likely to experience conditions where they have to expend large: amounts of energy in order to maintain a constant body temperature at low ambient temperatures. The survival of small rodents is thus dependent on their ability to reduce heat loss and increase heat production at low ambient temperatures. Two such animals are the social subterranean rodents Cryptomys damarensis (the Damaraland mole-rat) and Cryptomys hottentotus natalensis (the Natal mole-rat). This study examined the energy savings associated with huddling as a behavioural thermoregulatory mechanism to conserve energy in both these species. Individual oxygen consumption (VO2) was measured in groups ranging in size from one to 15 huddling animals for both species at ambient temperatures of 14, 18, 22, 26 and 30 degrees C. Savings in energy (VO2) were then compared between the two species. Significant differences in VO2 (p

Surrogate-Based Optimization Using Multifidelity Models with Variable Parameterization and Corrected Space Mapping

Surrogate-based-optimization methods provide a means to achieve high-fidelity design optimization at reduced computational cost by using a high-fidelity model in combination with lower-fidelity models that are less expensive to evaluate. This paper presents a provably convergent trust-region model-management methodology for variableparameterization design models: that is, models for which the design parameters are defined over different spaces. Corrected space mapping is introduced as a method to map between the variable-parameterization design spaces. It is then used with a sequential-quadratic-programming-like trust-region method for two aerospace-related design optimization problems. Results for a wing design problem and a flapping-flight problem show that the method outperforms direct optimization in the high-fidelity space. On the wing design problem, the new method achieves 76% savings in high-fidelity function calls. On a bat-flight design problem, it achieves approximately 45% time savings, although it converges to a different local minimum than did the benchmark.

An autonomous wave-powered desalination system

The potential for an autonomous wave-powered desalination system is considered and it is identified that the most promising configuration is a reverse osmosis (RO) plant utilising a pressure exchanger-intensifier for energy recovery. A numerical model of the RO plant with a pressure exchanger-intensifier is developed that shows that a specific energy consumption of less than 2.0 kW h/m3 over a wide range of sea-water feed conditions, making it particularly suitable for use with a variable power source such as wave energy. A numerical model of the combined wave-power and desalination plant is also developed that shows that it is possible to supply the desalination plant with sea-water directly pressurised by the wave energy converter, eliminating the cost and energy losses associated with converting the energy into electricity and back to pressurised water. For a typical sea-state the specific hydraulic energy consumption of the desalination plant is estimated to be 1.85 kW h/m3 whilst maintaining a recovery-ratio of less than 25 to 35% to avoid the need for chemical pre-treatment to eliminate scaling problems. It is suggested that the economic potential for wave-powered desalination depends on these energy and cost savings more than compensating for the reduction in membrane life that occurs with variable feed conditions.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Aircraft Operating Costs in Structural Design Optimization

The paper focuses on the development of an aircraft design optimization methodology that models uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the tradeoff between manufacturing cost, structural requirements, andaircraft direct operating cost.Specifically,ratherthanonlylooking atmanufacturingcost, direct operatingcost is also consideredintermsof the impact of weight on fuel burn, in addition to the acquisition cost to be borne by the operator. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between driving design according to minimal weight and driving it according to reduced manufacturing cost. Theanalysis of cost is facilitated withagenetic-causal cost-modeling methodology,andthe structural analysis is driven by numerical expressions of appropriate failure modes that use ESDU International reference data. However, a key contribution of the paper is to investigate the modeling of uncertainty and to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the robustness of the optimization methodology. Stochastic distributions are used to characterize manufacturing cost distributions, andMonteCarlo analysis is performed in modeling the impact of uncertainty on the cost modeling. The results are then used in a sensitivity analysis that incorporates the optimization methodology. In addition to investigating manufacturing cost variance, the sensitivity of the optimization to fuel burn cost and structural loading are also investigated. It is found that the consideration of manufacturing cost does make an impact and results in a different optimal design configuration from that delivered by the minimal-weight method. However, it was shown that at lower applied loads there is a threshold fuel burn cost at which the optimization process needs to reduce weight, and this threshold decreases with increasing load. The new optimal solution results in lower direct operating cost with a predicted savings of 640=m2 of fuselage skin over the life, relating to a rough order-of-magnitude direct operating cost savings of $500,000 for the fuselage alone of a small regional jet. Moreover, it was found through the uncertainty analysis that the principle was not sensitive to cost variance, although the margins do change.

Shedding Light on the light bulb puzzle: the role of attitudes and perceptions in the adoption of energy efficient light bulbs

Despite the potential energy savings and economic benefits associated with compact fluorescent light bulbs, their adoption by the residential sector has been limited to date. In this paper, we present a theoretical model that focuses on the agents' ability to perceive the correct cost of lighting and on the role of environmental attitudes as key determinants of the adoption decision. We use original data from Ireland to test our theoretical predictions. Our results emphasize the importance of education, information and environmental awareness in the adoption decision.