Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains.

METHODS: To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R0) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype.

RESULTS: Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa.

Rapid emergence of multidrug resistant, H58-lineage Salmonella typhi in Blantyre, Malawi

INTRODUCTION: Between 1998 and 2010, S. Typhi was an uncommon cause of bloodstream infection (BSI) in Blantyre, Malawi and it was usually susceptible to first-line antimicrobial therapy. In 2011 an increase in a multidrug resistant (MDR) strain was detected through routine bacteriological surveillance conducted at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH).

METHODS: Longitudinal trends in culture-confirmed Typhoid admissions at QECH were described between 1998-2014. A retrospective review of patient cases notes was conducted, focusing on clinical presentation, prevalence of HIV and case-fatality. Isolates of S. Typhi were sequenced and the phylogeny of Typhoid in Blantyre was reconstructed and placed in a global context.

RESULTS: Between 1998-2010, there were a mean of 14 microbiological diagnoses of Typhoid/year at QECH, of which 6.8% were MDR. This increased to 67 in 2011 and 782 in 2014 at which time 97% were MDR. The disease predominantly affected children and young adults (median age 11 [IQR 6-21] in 2014). The prevalence of HIV in adult patients was 16.7% [8/48], similar to that of the general population (17.8%). Overall, the case fatality rate was 2.5% (3/94). Complications included anaemia, myocarditis, pneumonia and intestinal perforation. 112 isolates were sequenced and the phylogeny demonstrated the introduction and clonal expansion of the H58 lineage of S. Typhi.

CONCLUSIONS: Since 2011, there has been a rapid increase in the incidence of multidrug resistant, H58-lineage Typhoid in Blantyre. This is one of a number of reports of the re-emergence of Typhoid in Southern and Eastern Africa. There is an urgent need to understand the reservoirs and transmission of disease and how to arrest this regional increase.

Sensitive and specific detection of viable Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in raw milk by the Peptide-mediated magnetic separation (PMS)-phage assay

This study describes further validation of a previously described Peptide-mediated magnetic separation (PMS)-Phage assay, and its application to test raw cows’ milk for presence of viable Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). The inclusivity and exclusivity of the PMS-phage assay were initially assessed, before the 50% limit of detection (LOD50) was determined and compared with those of PMS-qPCR (targeting both IS900 and f57) and PMS-culture. These methods were then applied in parallel to test 146 individual milk samples and 22 bulk tank milk samples from Johne’s affected herds. Viable MAP were detected by the PMS-phage assay in 31 (21.2%) of 146 individual milk samples (mean plaque count of 228.1 PFU/50 ml, range 6-948 PFU/50 ml), and 13 (59.1%) of 22 bulk tank milks (mean plaque count of 136.83 PFU/50 ml, range 18-695 PFU/50 ml). In contrast, only 7 (9.1%) of 77 individual milks and 10 (45.4%) of 22 bulk tank milks tested PMS-qPCR positive, and 17 (11.6%) of 146 individual milks and 11 (50%) of 22 bulk tank milks tested PMS-culture positive. The mean 50% limits of detection (LOD50) of the PMS-phage, PMS-IS900 qPCR and PMS-f57 qPCR assays, determined by testing MAP-spiked milk, were 0.93, 135.63 and 297.35 MAP CFU/50 ml milk, respectively. Collectively, these results demonstrate that, in our laboratory, the PMS-phage assay is a sensitive and specific method to quickly detect the presence of viable MAP cells in milk. However, due to its complicated, multi-step nature, the method would not be a suitable MAP screening method for the dairy industry.