Modelling road traffic accidents using macroscopic second-order models of traffic flow

In this paper, we introduce a macroscopic model for road traffic accidents along highway sections. We discuss the motivation and the derivation of such a model, and we present its mathematical properties. The results are presented by means of examples where a section of a crowded one-way highway contains in the middle a cluster of drivers whose dynamics are prone to road traffic accidents. We discuss the coupling conditions and present some existence results of weak solutions to the associated Riemann Problems. Furthermore, we illustrate some features of the proposed model through some numerical simulations. © The authors 2012.

Road traffic congestion and public information - An experimental investigation

This paper reports laboratory experiments designed to study the impact of public information about past departure rates on congestion levels and travel costs. Our design is based on a discrete version of Arnott et al.'s (1990) bottleneck model. In all treatments, congestion occurs and the observed travel costs are quite similar to the predicted ones. Subjects' capacity to coordinate is not affected by the availability of public information on past departure rates, by the number of drivers or by the relative cost of delay. This seemingly absence of treatment effects is confirmed by our finding that a parameter-free reinforcement learning model best characterises individual behaviour.

A Lagrangian approach for modeling road collisions using second-order models of traffic flow

In [M. Herty, A. Klein, S. Moutari, V. Schleper, and G. Steinaur, IMA J. Appl. Math., 78(5), 1087–1108, 2013] and [M. Herty and V. Schleper, ZAMM J. Appl. Math. Mech., 91, 763–776, 2011], a macroscopic approach, derived from fluid-dynamics models, has been introduced to infer traffic conditions prone to road traffic collisions along highways’ sections. In these studies, the governing equations are coupled within an Eulerian framework, which assumes fixed interfaces between the models. A coupling in Lagrangian coordinates would enable us to get rid of this (not very realistic) assumption. In this paper, we investigate the well-posedness and the suitability of the coupling of the governing equations within the Lagrangian framework. Further, we illustrate some features of the proposed approach through some numerical simulations.

Pattern Recognition Approach for Road Collision Hotspots Analysis: Case Study of Northern Ireland

In order to address road safety effectively, it is essential to understand all the factors, which
attribute to the occurrence of a road collision. This is achieved through road safety
assessment measures, which are primarily based on historical crash data. Recent advances
in uncertain reasoning technology have led to the development of robust machine learning
techniques, which are suitable for investigating road traffic collision data. These techniques
include supervised learning (e.g. SVM) and unsupervised learning (e.g. Cluster Analysis).
This study extends upon previous research work, carried out in Coll et al. [3], which
proposed a non-linear aggregation framework for identifying temporal and spatial hotspots.
The results from Coll et al. [3] identified Lisburn area as the hotspot, in terms of road safety,
in Northern Ireland. This study aims to use Cluster Analysis, to investigate and highlight any
hidden patterns associated with collisions that occurred in Lisburn area, which in turn, will
provide more clarity in the causation factors so that appropriate countermeasures can be put
in place.

Ranking Spatial and Temporal Hotspots for Road Safety Interventions Using a Nonlinear Aggregation Approach

In recent years, the concept of a composite performance index, brought from economic and business statistics, has gained popularity in the field of road safety. The construction of the Composite Safety Performance Index (CSPI) involves the following key steps: the selection of the most appropriate indicators to be aggregated and the method used to aggregate them.

Over the last decade, various aggregation methods for estimating the CSPI have been suggested in the literature. However, recent studies indicates that most of these methods suffer from many deficiencies at both the theoretical and operational level; these include the correlation and compensability between indicators, as well as their high “degree of freedom” which enables one to readily manipulate them to produce desired outcomes.

The purpose of this study is to introduce an alternative aggregation method for the estimation of the CSPI, which is free from the aforementioned deficiencies. In contrast with the current aggregation methods, which generally use linear combinations of road safety indicators to estimate a CSPI, the approach advocated in this study is based on non-linear combinations of indicators and can be summarized into the following two main steps: the pairwise comparison of road safety indicators and the development of marginal and composite road safety performance functions. The introduced method has been successfully applied to identify and rank temporal and spatial hotspots for Northern Ireland, using road traffic collision data recorded in the UK STATs19 database. The obtained results highlight the promising features of the proposed approach including its stability and consistency, which enables significantly reduced deficiencies associated with the current aggregation methods. Progressively, the introduced method could evolve into an intelligent support system for road safety assessment.

A Framework for Spatial Road Safety Assessment: Case Study of Northern Ireland

Road traffic injuries are a major health issue worldwide. There are many factors that can
affect the levels of road traffic collisions which in turn increase the levels of people killed or
seriously injured. When road traffic collisions occur, observed facts are recorded in relation
to the incident. These facts are recorded as variable observations, and for this study,
variables and indicators are defined almost equivalently. There can be hundreds of different
indicators for the various collisions, as different countries face different road situations. This
makes it difficult to perform a road safety assessment, which can be applied globally. The
goal of this study is to select the most appropriate indicators and create a composite
indicator as a function of these indicators, which can be used as summary values, allowing
ease of comparisons between the countries/regions that have undergone a road safety
assessment. The composite indicator will then be used to assess the current situation in
Northern Ireland and provide scores for ranking policing in terms of overall road safety on
their road networks.

The influence of aetiology and blame on prejudice towards survivors of brain injury.

The purpose of the present work was to investigate if a hierarchy of aetiology exists which would influence attitudes towards survivors of brain injury. An independent groups design utilised four independent variables; aetiology (measured at five levels: ‘Road Traffic Accident’ (RTA), ‘Alcohol’, ‘Drug Use’, ‘Aneurism’ and ‘Recreation’), blame (blame and no-blame), group (psychology students and members of the public) and gender to explore attitudes towards survivors of brain injury. The dependent variables were measured using the Prejudicial Evaluation Scale (PES) and Social Interaction Scale (SIS). Three hundred and twenty-five participants (173 students and 152 members of the public) were randomly allocated to one of ten possible conditions. Among individuals who contributed to receiving their injury greater prejudice was displayed towards those in the ‘Drugs’ condition followed by ‘Recreation’, ‘RTA’, ‘Alcohol’ and ‘Aneurism’. Findings suggest that a hierarchy of aetiology exists, which results in prejudicial attitudes, and is influenced by issues of blame. Key words: prejudice, blame, brain injury

Donor identification and consent for deceased organ donation: summary of NICE guidance.

Organ donation plays a major role in the management of patients with single organ failure of the kidneys, liver, pancreas, heart, or lung, or with combined organ failure of heart and lung (such as in cystic fibrosis) or of kidney and pancreas (such as in diabetes). A shortage of transplant organs has resulted in long waits for transplantation. Currently about 500 people in the United Kingdom die each year because of a shortage of donated organs,1 and at 31 March 2011 almost 7000 patients were waiting for a kidney transplant1 and would be having costly dialysis with serious morbidity and impact on quality of life. This shortage of organs is partly the result of relatively low numbers of road traffic deaths (lower than in many countries) but is also the result of inefficiencies in the donor identification and consent processes. This article summarises the most recent recommendations from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) on improving donor identification and consent rates for deceased organ donation.2

Post-mortem examination of a wild muntjac from Northern Ireland.

1. Deer are of major concern with regards to impacts on biodiversity, forestry and agriculture as well as human health. The invasive Reeves’ muntjac deer Muntiacus reevesi, native to Asia but established in Great Britain, has recently appeared in the wild in Ireland.

2. The first verified record in the wild in Northern Ireland was confirmed during June 2009 as a result of a road traffic accident near Newtownards, Co. Down. The second record was a culled animal shot in the grounds of Mount Stewart, Co. Down during June 2011.

3. The current report aimed to perform a detailed investigation of the most recently obtained animal to establish a) its age, b) its genetic relationship with the first animal and c) the threat it might pose in terms of carrying endo- or ecto-parasites or other micro-pathogens, principally viruses and bacteria.

4. Analysis of its dentition suggested the culled animal was 56 weeks old (range 55-57 weeks).

5. Genetic analysis indicated that there was no possibility of a father-son relationship with the buck killed in 2009. There was a 6.25% probability of both individuals being full-sibs and a 25% probability of a half-sib relationship.

6. The deer was free from all the major pathogens. Most significantly, a novel species of Gammaherpesvirus was detected most closely matching type 2 ruminant rhadinovirus (Gammaherpesvirinae) from mule deer. Further sequencing is required to provide a definitive classification. There is no evidence suggesting this virus is pathogenic but its detection is nonetheless of concern.

7. During late 2009 (after the first animal was recovered) and early 2010, there were a number of sightings of muntjac within the vicinity of Mount Stewart. Our results indicate that the animal shot in June 2011 could not have been this same animal, as the shot animal must have been born in spring 2010. Moreover, genetic analysis indicates that the two recovered individuals were highly unlikely to share the same mother and father, suggesting they were the offspring of a minimum of three breeding adults (two fathers and one mother or two mothers and one father). This brings the total number of known individuals to 5 including the two offspring. The location of the breeding adults is unknown and may be either in captivity with subsequent escapees, or deliberate releases, or be free living in the wild. However, a further sighting during early 2012 may suggest a wild origin.

Diversity and abundance of soil arthropods in urban and suburban holm oak stands

We investigated the soil arthropod communities of urban and suburban holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) stands in a small (Siena) and a large Italian city (Naples) and tested whether the abundance and diversity of higher arthropod taxa are affected by the biotic and abiotic conditions of urban forest soils, including pollution. Acarina and Collembola were the dominant taxa in both cities. In Siena the total number of arthropod individuals collected in the samples was over 1/3 greater than in Naples, but all diversity indices scored higher in Naples than in Siena, probably in response to the higher heterogeneity of microclimatic and pedological conditions found in Naples study area. Oribatids resulted twice more abundant in Siena and so were the total mites with respect to Collembola. While “taxonomic richness” per site increased with distance from road traffic, entropy and evenness indices scored higher at the two ends of the impact gradient in both cities. The overall variation in basic pedological and microbiological soil parameters positively correlated with the total abundance of arthropods, and negatively correlated with their taxonomic richness. At the resolution employed, no significant relation emerged between anthropogenic factors, such as traffic load and soil pollution, and the arthropod fauna density and variety. These results are consistent with conclusions drawn from a previous study on the enchytraeid fauna examined at species level, which is remarkable considering the different taxonomic resolutions of the two studies. CCA results suggest that the higher abundance of Oribatid mites, Protura and Thysanura and the lower abundance of Diplopoda and Symphyla in Siena could depend on a higher fungi/bacteria ratio. This observation can be interpreted in terms of differences in fungi and bacteria between the two cities: Siena is shifted towards the fungal decomposition channel, which supports taxa such as oribatid mites, while Naples is shifted towards the bacterial channel, which supports chiefly detritivorous groups, such as diplopods.