Human capital and the quantity–quality trade-off during the demographic transition

This paper provides an empirical test of the child quantity–quality (QQ) trade-off predicted by unified growth theory. Using individual census returns from the 1911 Irish census, we examine whether children who attended school were from smaller families—as predicted by a standard QQ model. To measure causal effects, we use a selection of models robust to endogeneity concerns which we validate for this application using an Empirical Monte Carlo analysis. Our results show that a child remaining in school between the ages of 14 and 16 caused up to a 27 % reduction in fertility. Our results are robust to alternative estimation techniques with different modeling assumptions, sample selection, and alternative definitions of fertility. These findings highlight the importance of the demographic transition as a mechanism which underpinned the expansion in human capital witnessed in Western economies during the twentieth century.

Stories from the Inside:The Prisons Memory Archive

A close textual reading of the online-available recording of ex-prison officer, John Heatherington, who is filmed as he returns to the site of the Maze and Long Kesh Prison, which was the largest prison oeperating during the Troubles in Northern Ireland. Using the empty site as stimulant for his memory, John recalls the tension, violence and dark humour of the period, while also showing exceptional empathy for all those, including prisoners, who passed through the prison system.The interview is taken from the Prisons Memory Archive (www.prisonsmemoryarchive.com) and, as director of the PMA, I have a particular insight to the recording process and John's special contribution to it.