Progress and Research in Cybersecurity - Supporting a resilient and trustworthy system for the UK

Executive summary
Digital systems have transformed, and will continue to transform, our world. Supportive government policy, a strong research base and a history of industrial success make the UK particularly well-placed to realise the benefits of the emerging digital society. These benefits have already been substantial, but they remain at risk. Protecting the benefits and minimising the risks requires reliable and robust cybersecurity, underpinned by a strong research and translation system.
Trust is essential for growing and maintaining participation in the digital society. Organisations earn trust by acting in a trustworthy manner: building systems that are reliable and secure, treating people, their privacy and their data with respect, and providing credible and comprehensible information to help people understand how secure they are.
Resilience, the ability to function, adapt, grow, learn and transform under stress or in the face of shocks, will help organisations deliver systems that are reliable and secure. Resilient organisations can better protect their customers, provide more useful products and services, and earn people’s trust.
Research and innovation in industry and academia will continue to make important contributions to creating this resilient and trusted digital environment. Research can illuminate how best to build, assess and improve digital systems, integrating insights from different disciplines, sectors and around the globe. It can also generate advances to help cybersecurity keep up with the continued evolution of cyber risks.
Translation of innovative ideas and approaches from research will create a strong supply of reliable, proven solutions to difficult to predict cybersecurity risks. This is best achieved by maximising the diversity and number of innovations that see the light of day as products.
Policy, practice and research will all need to adapt. The recommendations made in this report seek to set up a trustworthy, self-improving and resilient digital environment that can thrive in the face of unanticipated threats, and earn the trust people place in it.
Innovation and research will be particularly important to the UK’s economy as it establishes a new relationship with the EU. Cybersecurity delivers important economic benefits, both by underpinning the digital foundations of UK business and trade and also through innovation that feeds directly into growth. The findings of this report will be relevant regardless of how the UK’s relationship to the EU changes.
Headline recommendations
● Trust: Governments must commit to preserving the robustness of encryption, including end-to-end encryption, and promoting its widespread use. Encryption is a foundational security technology that is needed to build user trust, improve security standards and fully realise the benefits of digital systems.
● Resilience: Government should commission an independent review of the UK’s future cybersecurity needs, focused on the institutional structures needed to support resilient and trustworthy digital systems in the medium and longer term. A self-improving, resilient digital environment will need to be guided and governed by institutions that are transparent, expert and have a clear and widely-understood remit.
● Research: A step change in cybersecurity research and practice should be pursued; it will require a new approach to research, focused on identifying ambitious high-level goals and enabling excellent researchers to pursue those ambitions. This would build on the UK's existing strengths in many aspects of cybersecurity research and ultimately help build a resilient and trusted digital sector based on excellent research and world-class expertise.
● Translation: The UK should promote a free and unencumbered flow of cybersecurity ideas from research to practical use and support approaches that have public benefits beyond their short term financial return. The unanticipated nature of future cyber threats means that a diverse set of cybersecurity ideas and approaches will be needed to build resilience and adaptivity. Many of the most valuable ideas will have broad security benefits for the public, beyond any direct financial returns.

An Environment for Rapid Derivatives Design and Experimentation

In the highly competitive world of modern finance, new derivatives are continually required to take advantage of changes in financial markets, and to hedge businesses against new risks. The research described in this paper aims to accelerate the development and pricing of new derivatives in two different ways. Firstly, new derivatives can be specified mathematically within a general framework, enabling new mathematical formulae to be specified rather than just new parameter settings. This Generic Pricing Engine (GPE) is expressively powerful enough to specify a wide range of stand¬ard pricing engines. Secondly, the associated price simulation using the Monte Carlo method is accelerated using GPU or multicore hardware. The parallel implementation (in OpenCL) is automatically derived from the mathematical description of the derivative. As a test, for a Basket Option Pricing Engine (BOPE) generated using the GPE, on the largest problem size, an NVidia GPU runs the generated pricing engine at 45 times the speed of a sequential, specific hand-coded implementation of the same BOPE. Thus a user can more rapidly devise, simulate and experiment with new derivatives without actual programming.

The EU referendum and the UK environment:The Future Under a 'Hard' and a 'Soft' Brexit

'Brexit means Brexit’: but what does Brexit mean for the environment? In the new EUrefEnv study, Dr Charlotte Burns (University of York), Prof Andrew Jordan and Dr Viviane Gravey (University of East Anglia) explore what Brexit may mean for UK environmental policies and governance processes by comparing two scenarios: a ‘soft’ and a ‘hard’ Brexit. A ‘soft’ Brexit would see the UK remain as close as possible to the EU, establishing a new relationship akin to Norway’s relationship with the EU. Conversely a ‘hard’ Brexit would see the UK trade with the EU under World Trade Organisation rules. Both will generate radically different impacts on policies, systems of governance and levels of environmental quality in the UK – key issues that should inform forthcoming negotiations to effect Brexit. The study concludes with suggestions for future research and policy.

The effect of changing the built environment on physical activity: a quantitative review of the risk of bias in natural experiments.

BACKGROUND:
Evidence regarding the association of the built environment with physical activity is influencing policy recommendations that advocate changing the built environment to increase population-level physical activity. However, to date there has been no rigorous appraisal of the quality of the evidence on the effects of changing the built environment. The aim of this review was to conduct a thorough quantitative appraisal of the risk of bias present in those natural experiments with the strongest experimental designs for assessing the causal effects of the built environment on physical activity.

METHODS:
Eligible studies had to evaluate the effects of changing the built environment on physical activity, include at least one measurement before and one measurement of physical activity after changes in the environment, and have at least one intervention site and non-intervention comparison site. Given the large number of systematic reviews in this area, studies were identified from three exemplar systematic reviews; these were published in the past five years and were selected to provide a range of different built environment interventions. The risk of bias in these studies was analysed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool: for Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ACROBAT-NRSI).

RESULTS:
Twelve eligible natural experiments were identified. Risk of bias assessments were conducted for each physical activity outcome from all studies, resulting in a total of fifteen outcomes being analysed. Intervention sites included parks, urban greenways/trails, bicycle lanes, paths, vacant lots, and a senior citizen's centre. All outcomes had an overall critical (n = 12) or serious (n = 3) risk of bias. Domains with the highest risk of bias were confounding (due to inadequate control sites and poor control of confounding variables), measurement of outcomes, and selection of the reported result.

CONCLUSIONS:
The present review focused on the strongest natural experiments conducted to date. Given this, the failure of existing studies to adequately control for potential sources of bias highlights the need for more rigorous research to underpin policy recommendations for changing the built environment to increase physical activity. Suggestions are proposed for how future natural experiments in this area can be improved.