Pre-operative fasting for intravenous conscious sedation used in dental treatment: are conclusions based on relative risk management or evidence?

Intravenous sedation is a widely used pharmacological method of patient management commonly used in dental surgery for the treatment of anxious patients. Variety exists in fasting regimes between different centres offering dental sedation, with some advocating starvation in line with general anaesthesia protocols and others not enforcing starvation at all. The currently available guidelines on fasting protocols are ambiguous and open to interpretation partly because they are based on expert opinion rather than evidence-based research. This article reviews the available evidence on the subject of pre-operative fasting and discusses current guidelines.

Uncertainty, learning and growth

The paper extends Blackburn and Galindev's (Economics Letters, Vol. 79 (2003), pp. 417-421) stochastic growth model in which productivity growth entails both external and internal learning behaviour with a constant relative risk aversion utility function and productivity shocks. Consequently, the relationship between long-term growth and short-term volatility depends not only on the relative importance of each learning mechanism but also on a parameter measuring individuals' attitude towards risk.

Dietary glycaemic index, glycaemic load and breast cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review aimed to examine if an association exists between dietary glycaemic index (GI) and glycaemic load (GL) intake and breast cancer risk. A systematic search was conducted in Medline and Embase and identified 14 relevant studies up to May 2008. Adjusted relative risk estimates comparing breast cancer risk for the highest versus the lowest category of GI/GL intake were extracted from relevant studies and combined in meta-analyses using a random-effects model. Combined estimates from six cohort studies show non-significant increased breast cancer risks for premenopausal women (relative risk (RR) 1.14, 95% CI 0.95-1.38) and postmenopausal women (RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.99-1.25) consuming the highest versus the lowest category of GI intake. Evidence of heterogeneity hindered analyses of GL and premenopausal risk, although most studies did not observe any significant association. Pooled cohort study results indicated no association between postmenopausal risk and GL intake (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.94-1.12). Our findings do not provide strong support of an association between dietary GI and GL and breast cancer risk. © 2008 Cancer Research UK.


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Glycemic index, glycemic load, and risk of digestive tract neoplasms: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Habitual consumption of diets with a high glycemic index (GI) and a high glycemic load (GL) may influence cancer risk via hyperinsulinemia and the insulin-like growth factor axis.
Objective: The objective was to conduct a systematic review to assess the association between GI, GL, and risk of digestive tract cancers.
Design: Medline and Embase were searched for relevant publications from inception to July 2008. When possible, adjusted results from a comparison of cancer risk of the highest compared with the lowest category of GI and GL intake were combined by using random-effects meta-analyses.
Results: Cohort and case-control studies that examined the risk between GI or GL intake and colorectal cancer (n = 12) and adenomas (n = 2), pancreatic cancer (n = 6), gastric cancer (n = 2), and squamous-cell esophageal carcinoma (n = 1) were retrieved. Most case-control studies observed positive associations between GI and GL intake and these cancers. However, pooled cohort study results showed no associations between colorectal cancer risk and GI intake [relative risk (RR): 1.04; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.12; n = 7 studies] or GL intake (RR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.17; n = 8 studies). Furthermore, no significant associations were observed in meta-analyses of cohort study results of colorectal cancer subsites and GI and GL intake. Similarly, no significant associations emerged between pancreatic cancer risk and GI intake (RR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.19; n = 5 studies) or GL intake (RR: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.19; n = 6 studies) in combined cohort studies.
Conclusions: The findings from our meta-analyses indicate that GI and GL intakes are not associated with risk of colorectal or pancreatic cancers. There were insufficient data available regarding other digestive tract cancers to make any conclusions about GI or GL intake and risk.

Genome-wide association identifies a common variant in the reelin gene that increases the risk of schizophrenia only in women

Sex differences in schizophrenia are well known, but their genetic basis has not been identified. We performed a genome-wide association scan for schizophrenia in an Ashkenazi Jewish population using DNA pooling. We found a female-specific association with rs7341475, a SNP in the fourth intron of the reelin ( RELN) gene (p = 2.9 x 10(-5) in women), with a significant gene-sex effect (p = 1.8 x 10(-4)). We studied rs7341475 in four additional populations, totaling 2,274 cases and 4,401 controls. A significant effect was observed only in women, replicating the initial result (p = 2.1 x 10(-3) in women; p = 4.2 x 10(-3) for gene-sex interaction). Based on all populations the estimated relative risk of women carrying the common genotype is 1.58 (p = 8.8 x 10(-7); p = 1.6 x 10(-5) for gene-sex interaction). The female-specific association between RELN and schizophrenia is one of the few examples of a replicated sex-specific genetic association in any disease.

Secretor status and Helicobacter pylori infection are independent risk factors for gastroduodenal disease

The hypothesis that non-secretors of ABO blood group antigens, a group shown to be more susceptible to certain bacterial infections, may be at greater risk of gastroduodenal disease because of increased susceptibility to Helicobacter pylori infection was investigated. Of 101 patients with symptoms of dyspepsia who were undergoing endoscopy, 32% were non-secretors (determined from Lewis blood group phenotype), 36% had endoscopically visible gastroduodenal disease (antral gastritis, gastric ulcer, erosive duodenitis, duodenal ulcer or some combination), and 58% had H pylori detected in antral biopsy specimens. Non-secretors and patients with H pylori infection were significantly more likely to have gastroduodenal disease (p = 0.02 and p = 0.002 respectively). There was, however, no significant association between secretor status and H pylori infection, logistic regression analysis confirming that these were independently associated with gastroduodenal disease. Overall, the relative risk of gastroduodenal disease for non-secretors compared with secretors was 1.9 (95% confidence intervals 1.2, 3.2). Non-secretion of ABO blood group antigens is not related to H pylori infection but is independently and significantly associated with endoscopic gastroduodenal disease. The mechanism of this remains to be explained.

Individual and couple decision behavior under risk: evidence on the dynamics of power balance

This article reports results of an experiment designed to analyze the link between risky decisions made by couples and risky decisions made separately by each spouse. We estimate both the spouses and the couples' degrees of risk aversion, we assess how the risk preferences of the two spouses aggregate when they make risky decisions, and we shed light on the dynamics of the decision process that takes place when couples make risky decisions. We find that, far from being fixed, the balance of power within the household is malleable. In most couples, men have, initially, more decision-making power than women but women who ultimately implement the joint decisions gain more and more power over the course of decision making.

What do men understand about lifetime risk following genetic testing?:The effect of context and numeracy.

Genetic testing for gene mutations associated with specific cancers provides an opportunity for early detection, surveillance, and intervention (Smith, Cokkinides, & Brawley, 2008). Lifetime risk estimates provided by genetic testing refer to the risk of developing a specific disease within one's lifetime, and evidence suggests that this is important for the medical choices people make, as well as their future family and financial plans. The present studies tested whether adult men understand the lifetime risks of prostate cancer informed by genetic testing. In 2 experiments, adult men were asked to interpret the lifetime risk information provided in statements about risks of prostate cancer. Statement format was manipulated such that the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred to an absolute risk of cancer in experiment 1 and a relative risk in experiment 2. Experiment 1 revealed that few men correctly interpreted the lifetime risks of cancer when these refer to an absolute risk of cancer, and numeracy levels positively predicted correct responding. The proportion of correct responses was greatly improved in experiment 2 when the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred instead to a relative rather than an absolute risk, and numeracy levels were less involved. Understanding of lifetime risk information is often poor because individuals incorrectly believe that these refer to relative rather than absolute risks of cancer.

Prior Autoimmune Disease and Risk of Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance and Multiple Myeloma:A Systematic Review

Background: Several observational studies have investigated autoimmune disease and subsequent risk of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and multiple myeloma. Findings have been largely inconsistent and hindered by the rarity and heterogeneity of the autoimmune disorders investigated. A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to evaluate the strength of the evidence linking prior autoimmune disease and risk of MGUS/multiple myeloma.

Methods: A broad search strategy using key terms for MGUS, multiple myeloma, and 50 autoimmune diseases was used to search four electronic databases (PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Web of Science) from inception through November 2011.

Results: A total of 52 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 32 were suitably comparable to perform a meta-analysis. “Any autoimmune disorder” was associated with an increased risk of both MGUS [n = 760 patients; pooled relative risk (RR) 1.42; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.14–1.75] and multiple myeloma (n>2,530 patients; RR 1.13, 95% CI, 1.04–1.22). This risk was disease dependent with only pernicious anemia showing an increased risk of both MGUS (RR 1.67; 95% CI, 1.21–2.31) and multiple myeloma (RR 1.50; 95% CI, 1.25–1.80).

Conclusions: Our findings, based on the largest number of autoimmune disorders and patients with MGUS/multiple myeloma reported to date, suggest that autoimmune diseases and/or their treatment may be important in the etiology of MGUS/multiple myeloma. The strong associations observed for pernicious anemia suggest that anemia seen in plasma cell dyscrasias may be of autoimmune origin.

Impact: Underlying mechanisms of autoimmune diseases, general immune dysfunction, and/or treatment of autoimmune diseases may be important in the pathogenesis of MGUS/multiple myeloma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 23(2); 332–42. ©2014 AACR.

Long working hours and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of published and unpublished data for 603 838 individuals

Background: Long working hours might increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but prospective evidence is scarce, imprecise, and mostly limited to coronary heart disease. We aimed to assess long working hours as a risk factor for incident coronary heart disease and stroke. 

Methods We identified published studies through a systematic review of PubMed and Embase from inception to Aug 20, 2014. We obtained unpublished data for 20 cohort studies from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium and open-access data archives. We used cumulative random-effects meta-analysis to combine effect estimates from published and unpublished data. 

Findings We included 25 studies from 24 cohorts in Europe, the USA, and Australia. The meta-analysis of coronary heart disease comprised data for 603 838 men and women who were free from coronary heart disease at baseline; the meta-analysis of stroke comprised data for 528 908 men and women who were free from stroke at baseline. Follow-up for coronary heart disease was 5·1 million person-years (mean 8·5 years), in which 4768 events were recorded, and for stroke was 3·8 million person-years (mean 7·2 years), in which 1722 events were recorded. In cumulative meta-analysis adjusted for age, sex, and socioeconomic status, compared with standard hours (35-40 h per week), working long hours (≥55 h per week) was associated with an increase in risk of incident coronary heart disease (relative risk [RR] 1·13, 95% CI 1·02-1·26; p=0·02) and incident stroke (1·33, 1·11-1·61; p=0·002). The excess risk of stroke remained unchanged in analyses that addressed reverse causation, multivariable adjustments for other risk factors, and different methods of stroke ascertainment (range of RR estimates 1·30-1·42). We recorded a dose-response association for stroke, with RR estimates of 1·10 (95% CI 0·94-1·28; p=0·24) for 41-48 working hours, 1·27 (1·03-1·56; p=0·03) for 49-54 working hours, and 1·33 (1·11-1·61; p=0·002) for 55 working hours or more per week compared with standard working hours (p_trend<0·0001).

Interpretation Employees who work long hours have a higher risk of stroke than those working standard hours; the association with coronary heart disease is weaker. These findings suggest that more attention should be paid to the management of vascular risk factors in individuals who work long hours. 

Risk-aware Planning in BDI Agents

The ability of an autonomous agent to select rational actions is vital in enabling it to achieve its goals. To do so effectively in a high-stakes setting, the agent must be capable of considering the risk and potential reward of both immediate and future actions. In this paper we provide a novel method for calculating risk alongside utility in online planning algorithms. We integrate such a risk-aware planner with a BDI agent, allowing us to build agents that can set their risk aversion levels dynamically based on their changing beliefs about the environment. To guide the design of a risk-aware agent we propose a number of principles which such an agent should adhere to and show how our proposed framework satisfies these principles. Finally, we evaluate our approach and demonstrate that a dynamically risk-averse agent is capable of achieving a higher success rate than an agent that ignores risk, while obtaining a higher utility than an agent with a static risk attitude.

Risk factors (excluding hormone therapy) for endometrial hyperplasia: a systematic review.

Objective: To conduct a systematic review of risk factors associated with the development of Endometrial Hyperplasia (EH).

Data sources: Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science databases were searched from inception to 30 June 2015.

Study eligibility: Fifteen observational studies that reported on EH risk in relation to lifestyle factors (n=14), medical history (n=11), reproductive and menstrual history (n=9) and measures of socio-economic status (n=2) were identified. Pooled relative risk estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were able to be derived for EH and Body Mass Index (BMI), smoking, diabetes and hypertension, using random effects models comparing high versus low categories.

Results: The pooled relative risk for EH when comparing women with the highest versus lowest BMI was 1.82 (95% CI 1.22–2.71; n=7 studies, I2=90.4%). No significant associations were observed for EH risk for smokers compared with non-smokers (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.66-1.17; n=3, I2=0.0%), hypertensive versus normotensive women (RR 1.51, 95% CI 0.72–3.15; n=5 studies, I2=79.1%), or diabetic versus non-diabetic women (RR 1.77, 95% CI 0.79–3.96; n=5 studies, I2=31.8%) respectively although the number of included studies was limited. There were mixed reports on the relationship between age and risk of EH. Too few studies reported on other factors to reach any conclusions in relation to EH risk.

Conclusions: A high BMI was associated with an increased risk of EH, providing additional rationale for women to maintain a normal body weight. No significant associations were detected for other factors and EH risk, however relatively few studies have been conducted and few of the available studies adequately adjusted for relevant confounders. Therefore, further aetiological studies of endometrial hyperplasia are warranted.

Troponin I and cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population: the BiomarCaRE consortium

AIMS: Our aims were to evaluate the distribution of troponin I concentrations in population cohorts across Europe, to characterize the association with cardiovascular outcomes, to determine the predictive value beyond the variables used in the ESC SCORE, to test a potentially clinically relevant cut-off value, and to evaluate the improved eligibility for statin therapy based on elevated troponin I concentrations retrospectively.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project, we analysed individual level data from 10 prospective population-based studies including 74 738 participants. We investigated the value of adding troponin I levels to conventional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular disease by calculating measures of discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We further tested the clinical implication of statin therapy based on troponin concentration in 12 956 individuals free of cardiovascular disease in the JUPITER study. Troponin I remained an independent predictor with a hazard ratio of 1.37 for cardiovascular mortality, 1.23 for cardiovascular disease, and 1.24 for total mortality. The addition of troponin I information to a prognostic model for cardiovascular death constructed of ESC SCORE variables increased the C-index discrimination measure by 0.007 and yielded an NRI of 0.048, whereas the addition to prognostic models for cardiovascular disease and total mortality led to lesser C-index discrimination and NRI increment. In individuals above 6 ng/L of troponin I, a concentration near the upper quintile in BiomarCaRE (5.9 ng/L) and JUPITER (5.8 ng/L), rosuvastatin therapy resulted in higher absolute risk reduction compared with individuals <6 ng/L of troponin I, whereas the relative risk reduction was similar.

CONCLUSION: In individuals free of cardiovascular disease, the addition of troponin I to variables of established risk score improves prediction of cardiovascular death and cardiovascular disease.