Willingness to Pay for Rural Landscape Improvements: Combining Mixed Logit and Random-Effects Models

This paper reports the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with rural landscape improvements in Ireland. Using a mixed logit model, the panel nature of the dataset is exploited to retrieve willingness-to-pay values for every individual in the sample. This departs from customary approaches in which the willingness-to-pay estimates are normally expressed as measures of central tendency of an a priori distribution. Random-effects models for panel data are subsequently used to identify the determinants of the individual-specific willingness-to-pay estimates. In comparison with the standard methods used to incorporate individual-specific variables into the analysis of discrete-choice experiments, the analytical approach outlined in this paper is shown to add considerable explanatory power to the welfare estimates.

An invasive-native mammalian species replacement process captured by camera trap survey random encounter models

Camera traps are used to estimate densities or abundances using capture-recapture and, more recently, random encounter models (REMs). We deploy REMs to describe an invasive-native species replacement process, and to demonstrate their wider application beyond abundance estimation. The Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus is a high priority endemic of conservation concern. It is threatened by an expanding population of non-native, European hares L. europaeus, an invasive species of global importance. Camera traps were deployed in thirteen 1 km squares, wherein the ratio of invader to native densities were corroborated by night-driven line transect distance sampling throughout the study area of 1652 km2. Spatial patterns of invasive and native densities between the invader’s core and peripheral ranges, and native allopatry, were comparable between methods. Native densities in the peripheral range were comparable to those in native allopatry using REM, or marginally depressed using Distance Sampling. Numbers of the invader were substantially higher than the native in the core range, irrespective of method, with a 5:1 invader-to-native ratio indicating species replacement. We also describe a post hoc optimization protocol for REM which will inform subsequent (re-)surveys, allowing survey effort (camera hours) to be reduced by up to 57% without compromising the width of confidence intervals associated with density estimates. This approach will form the basis of a more cost-effective means of surveillance and monitoring for both the endemic and invasive species. The European hare undoubtedly represents a significant threat to the endemic Irish hare.

Hypermobility and musculoskeletal pain in children:a systematic review

Objective: To examine the evidence of an association between hypermobility and musculoskeletal pain in children. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was performed using the databases PubMed, EMBASE, NHS Evidence, and Medline. Inclusion criteria were observational studies investigating hypermobility and musculoskeletal pain in children. Exclusion criteria were studies conducted on specialist groups (i.e. dancers) or hospital referrals. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) were calculated using random effects models and heterogeneity was tested using ?(2)-tests. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for case-control studies. Results: Of the 80 studies identified, 15 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Of these, 13 were included in the statistical analyses. Analysing the data showed that the heterogeneity was too high to allow for interpretation of the meta-analysis (I(2) = 72%). Heterogeneity was much lower when the studies were divided into European (I(2) = 8%) and Afro-Asian subgroups (I(2) = 65%). Sensitivity analysis based on data from studies reporting from European and Afro-Asian regions showed no association in the European studies [OR 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79-1.26] but a marked relationship between hypermobility and joint pain in the Afro-Asian group (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.45-2.77). Meta-regression showed a highly significant difference between subgroups in both meta-analyses (p <0.001). Conclusion: There seems to be no association between hypermobility and joint pain in Europeans. There does seem to be an association in Afro-Asians; however, there was a high heterogeneity. It is unclear whether this is due to differences in ethnicity, nourishment, climate or study design.

Alcohol and the Risk of Barrett's Esophagus: A Pooled Analysis from the International BEACON Consortium

OBJECTIVES: Results from studies examining the association between alcohol consumption and the risk of Barrett's esophagus have been inconsistent. We assessed the risk of Barrett's esophagus associated with total and beverage-specific alcohol consumption by pooling individual participant data from five case–control studies participating in the international Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium.
METHODS: For analysis, there were 1,282 population-based controls, 1,418 controls with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), and 1,169 patients with Barrett's esophagus (cases). We estimated study-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) using multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), education, smoking status, and GERD symptoms. Summary risk estimates were obtained by random-effects models. We also examined potential effect modification by sex, BMI, GERD symptoms, and cigarette smoking.
RESULTS: For comparisons with population-based controls, although there was a borderline statistically significant inverse association between any alcohol consumption and the risk of Barrett's esophagus (any vs. none, summary OR=0.77, 95% CI=0.60–1.00), risk did not decrease in a dose-response manner (Ptrend=0.72). Among alcohol types, wine was associated with a moderately reduced risk of Barrett's esophagus (any vs. none, OR=0.71, 95% CI=0.52–0.98); however, there was no consistent dose–response relationship (Ptrend=0.21). We found no association with alcohol consumption when cases were compared with GERD controls. Similar associations were observed across all strata of BMI, GERD symptoms, and cigarette smoking.
CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with findings for esophageal adenocarcinoma, we found no evidence that alcohol consumption increases the risk of Barrett's esophagus.

Prediction of surface roughness during hard turning of AISI 4340 steel (69 HRC)

In this study, 39 sets of hard turning (HT) experimental trials were performed on a Mori-Seiki SL-25Y (4-axis) computer numerical controlled (CNC) lathe to study the effect of cutting parameters in influencing the machined surface roughness. In all the trials, AISI 4340 steel workpiece (hardened up to 69 HRC) was machined with a commercially available CBN insert (Warren Tooling Limited, UK) under dry conditions. The surface topography of the machined samples was examined by using a white light interferometer and a reconfirmation of measurement was done using a Form Talysurf. The machining outcome was used as an input to develop various regression models to predict the average machined surface roughness on this material. Three regression models - Multiple regression, Random Forest, and Quantile regression were applied to the experimental outcomes. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to apply Random Forest or Quantile regression techniques to the machining domain. The performance of these models was compared to each other to ascertain how feed, depth of cut, and spindle speed affect surface roughness and finally to obtain a mathematical equation correlating these variables. It was concluded that the random forest regression model is a superior choice over multiple regression models for prediction of surface roughness during machining of AISI 4340 steel (69 HRC).

On Regression Methods for Virtual Metrology in Semiconductor Manufacturing

Virtual metrology (VM) aims to predict metrology values using sensor data from production equipment and physical metrology values of preceding samples. VM is a promising technology for the semiconductor manufacturing industry as it can reduce the frequency of in-line metrology operations and provide supportive information for other operations such as fault detection, predictive maintenance and run-to-run control. The prediction models for VM can be from a large variety of linear and nonlinear regression methods and the selection of a proper regression method for a specific VM problem is not straightforward, especially when the candidate predictor set is of high dimension, correlated and noisy. Using process data from a benchmark semiconductor manufacturing process, this paper evaluates the performance of four typical regression methods for VM: multiple linear regression (MLR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), neural networks (NN) and Gaussian process regression (GPR). It is observed that GPR performs the best among the four methods and that, remarkably, the performance of linear regression approaches that of GPR as the subset of selected input variables is increased. The observed competitiveness of high-dimensional linear regression models, which does not hold true in general, is explained in the context of extreme learning machines and functional link neural networks.

Constructing random matrices to represent real ecosystems

Models of complex systems with n components typically have order n² parameters because each component can potentially interact with every other. When it is impractical to measure these parameters, one may choose random parameter values and study the emergent statistical properties at the system level. Many influential results in theoretical ecology have been derived from two key assumptions: that species interact with random partners at random intensities and that intraspecific competition is comparable between species. Under these assumptions, community dynamics can be described by a community matrix that is often amenable to mathematical analysis. We combine empirical data with mathematical theory to show that both of these assumptions lead to results that must be interpreted with caution. We examine 21 empirically derived community matrices constructed using three established, independent methods. The empirically derived systems are more stable by orders of magnitude than results from random matrices. This consistent disparity is not explained by existing results on predator-prey interactions. We investigate the key properties of empirical community matrices that distinguish them from random matrices. We show that network topology is less important than the relationship between a species’ trophic position within the food web and its interaction strengths. We identify key features of empirical networks that must be preserved if random matrix models are to capture the features of real ecosystems.

Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults: meta-analysis of individual participant data from prospective cohort studies of the CHANCES consortium

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.

DESIGN: Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.

RESULTS: Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

Generating Realistic Labelled, Weighted Random Graphs

Generative algorithms for random graphs have yielded insights into the structure and evolution of real-world networks. Most networks exhibit a well-known set of properties, such as heavy-tailed degree distributions, clustering and community formation. Usually, random graph models consider only structural information, but many real-world networks also have labelled vertices and weighted edges. In this paper, we present a generative model for random graphs with discrete vertex labels and numeric edge weights. The weights are represented as a set of Beta Mixture Models (BMMs) with an arbitrary number of mixtures, which are learned from real-world networks. We propose a Bayesian Variational Inference (VI) approach, which yields an accurate estimation while keeping computation times tractable. We compare our approach to state-of-the-art random labelled graph generators and an earlier approach based on Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). Our results allow us to draw conclusions about the contribution of vertex labels and edge weights to graph structure.

Determinants and two-year change in anterior chamber angle width in a Chinese population

Objective: To study the population distribution and longitudinal changes in anterior chamber angle width and its determinants among Chinese adults. Design: Prospective cohort, population-based study. Participants: Persons aged 35 years or more residing in Guangzhou, China, who had not previously undergone incisional or laser eye surgery. Methods: In December 2008 and December 2010, all subjects underwent automated keratometry, and a random 50% sample had anterior segment optical coherence tomography with measurement of angle-opening distance at 500 μm (AOD500), angle recess area (ARA), iris thickness at 750 μm (IT750), iris curvature, pupil diameter, corneal thickness, anterior chamber width (ACW), lens vault (LV), and lens thickness (LT) and measurement of axial length (AL) and anterior chamber depth (ACD) by partial coherence laser interferometry. Main Outcome Measures: Baseline and 2-year change in AOD500 and ARA in the right eye. Results: A total of 745 subjects were present for full biometric testing in both 2008 and 2010 (mean age at baseline, 52.2 years; standard deviation [SD], 11.5 years; 53.7% were female). Test completion rates in 2010 varied from 77.3% (AOD500: 576/745) to 100% (AL). Mean AOD500 decreased from 0.25 mm (SD, 0.13 mm) in 2008 to 0.21 mm (SD, 13 mm) in 2010 (difference, -0.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.05 to -0.03). The ARA decreased from 21.5±3.73 10^-2 mm² to 21.0±3.64 10 ^-2 mm² (difference, -0.46; 95% CI, -0.52 to -0.41). The decrease in both was most pronounced among younger subjects and those with baseline AOD500 in the widest quartile at baseline. The following baseline variables were significantly associated with a greater 2-year decrease in both AOD500 and ARA: deeper ACD, steeper iris curvature, smaller LV, greater ARA, and greater AOD500. By using simple regression models, we could explain 52% to 58% and 93% of variation in baseline AOD500 and ARA, respectively, but only 27% and 16% of variation in 2-year change in AOD500 and ARA, respectively. Conclusions: Younger persons and those with the least crowded anterior chambers at baseline have the largest 2-year decreases in AOD500 and ARA. The ability to predict change in angle width based on demographic and biometric factors is relatively poor, which may have implications for screening. Financial Disclosure(s): The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article. © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology.

Visual symptoms and retinal straylight after laser peripheral iridotomy: the Zhongshan Angle-Closure Prevention Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of laser peripheral iridotomy (LPI) on forward-scatter of light and subjective visual symptoms and to identify LPI parameters influencing these phenomena. DESIGN: Cohort study derived from a randomized trial, using an external control group. PARTICIPANTS: Chinese subjects initially aged 50 or older and 70 years or younger with bilateral narrow angles undergoing LPI in 1 eye selected at random, and age- and gender-matched controls. METHODS: Eighteen months after laser, LPI-treated subjects underwent digital iris photography and photogrammetry to characterize the size and location of the LPI, Lens Opacity Classification System III cataract grading, and measurement of retinal straylight (C-Quant; OCULUS, Wetzlar, Germany) in the treated and untreated eyes and completed a visual symptoms questionnaire. Controls answered the questionnaire and underwent straylight measurement and (in a random one-sixth sample) cataract grading. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Retinal straylight levels and subjective visual symptoms. RESULTS: Among 230 LPI-treated subjects (121 [58.8%] with LPI totally covered by the lid, 43 [19.8%] with LPI partly covered by the lid, 53 [24.4%] with LPI uncovered by the lid), 217 (94.3%) completed all testing, as did 250 (93.3%) of 268 controls. Age, gender, and prevalence of visual symptoms did not differ between treated subjects and controls, although nuclear (P<0.01) and cortical (P = 0.03) cataract were less common among controls. Neither presenting visual acuity nor straylight score differed between the treated and untreated eyes among all treated persons, nor among those (n = 96) with LPI partially or totally uncovered. Prevalence of subjective glare did not differ significantly between participants with totally covered LPI (6.61%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.39%-12.5%), partially covered LPI (11.6%; 95% CI, 5.07%-24.5%), or totally uncovered LPI (9.43%; 95% CI, 4.10%-10.3%). In regression models, only worse cortical cataract grade (P = 0.01) was associated significantly with straylight score, and no predictors were associated with subjective glare. None of the LPI size or location parameters were associated with straylight or subjective symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggests that LPI is safe regarding measures of straylight and visual symptoms. This randomized design provides strong evidence that treatment programs for narrow angles would be unlikely to result in important medium-term visual disability.

Factors associated with spectacle-wear compliance in school-aged Mexican children.

PURPOSE: To study the prevalence and determinants of compliance with spectacle wear among school-age children in Oaxaca, Mexico, who were provided spectacles free of charge. METHODS: A cohort of 493 children aged 5 to 18 years chosen by random cluster sampling from primary and secondary schools in Oaxaca, Mexico, all of whom had received free spectacles through a local program, underwent unannounced, direct examination to determine compliance with spectacle wear within 18 months after initial provision of spectacles. Potential determinants of spectacle wear including age, gender, urban versus rural residence, presenting visual acuity, refractive error, and time since dispensing of the spectacles were examined in univariate and multivariate regression models. Children not currently wearing their spectacles were asked to select the reason from a list of possibilities, and reasons for noncompliance were analyzed within different demographic groups. RESULTS: Among this sample of children with a mean age of 10.4 +/- 2.6 years, the majority (74.5%) of whom were myopic (spherical equivalent [SE] < or = -0.50 D), 13.4% (66/493) were wearing their spectacles at the time of examination. An additional 34% (169/493) had the spectacles with them but were not wearing them. In regression models, the odds of spectacle wear were significantly higher among younger (OR = 1.19 per year of age; 95% CI, 1.05-1.33) rural (OR = 10.6; 95% CI, 5.3-21.0) children and those with myopia < or = -1.25 D (OR = 3.97; 95% CI, 1.98-7.94). The oldest children and children in urban-suburban areas were significantly more likely to list concerns about the appearance of the glasses or about being teased than were younger, rurally resident children. CONCLUSIONS: Compliance with spectacle wear may be very low, even when spectacles are provided free of charge, particularly among older, urban children, who have been shown in many populations to have the highest prevalence of myopia. As screening programs for refractive error become increasingly common throughout the world, new strategies are needed to improve compliance if program resources are to be maximized.

Associations between near work, outdoor activity, and myopia among adolescent students in rural China: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study report no. 2.

OBJECTIVE:

To study the associations between near work, outdoor activity, and myopia among children attending secondary school in rural China.

METHODS:

Among a random cluster sample of 1892 children in Xichang, China, subjects with an uncorrected acuity of 6/12 or less in either eye (n = 984) and a 25% sample of children with normal vision (n = 248) underwent measurement of refractive error. Subjects were administered a questionnaire on parental education, time spent outdoors, and weekly time spent engaged in and preferred working distance for a variety of near-work activities.

RESULTS:

Among 1232 children with refraction data, 998 (81.0%) completed the near-work survey. Their mean age was 14.6 years (SD, 0.8 years), 55.6% were girls, and 83.1% had myopia of -0.5 diopters or less (more myopia) in both eyes. Time and diopter-hours spent on near activities did not differ between children with and without myopia. In regression models, time spent on near activities and time outdoors were unassociated with myopia, adjusting for age, sex, and parental education.

CONCLUSIONS:

These and other recent results raise some doubts about the association between near work and myopia. Additional efforts to identify other environmental factors associated with myopia risk and that may be amenable to intervention are warranted.