A Bayesian Network Hybrid Model for Representing Accident and Emergency Waiting Times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department in a UK based National Health Service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (Emergency Rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

A Bayesian network hybrid model for representing accident and emergency waiting times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an accident and emergency (A&E) department in a UK based national health service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (emergency rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

Lung Clearance Index Is a Repeatable and Sensitive Indicator of Radiological Changes in Bronchiectasis

RATIONALE: In bronchiectasis there is a need for improved markers of lung function to determine disease severity and response to therapy.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether the lung clearance index is a repeatable and more sensitive indicator of computed tomography (CT) scan abnormalities than spirometry in bronchiectasis.

METHODS: Thirty patients with stable bronchiectasis were recruited and lung clearance index, spirometry, and health-related quality of life measures were assessed on two occasions, 2 weeks apart when stable (study 1). A separate group of 60 patients with stable bronchiectasis was studied on a single visit with the same measurements and a CT scan (study 2).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In study 1, the intervisit intraclass correlation coefficient for the lung clearance index was 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.89 to 0.97; P < 0.001). In study 2, the mean age was 62 (10) years, FEV1 76.5% predicted (18.9), lung clearance index 9.1 (2.0), and total CT score 14.1 (10.2)%. The lung clearance index was abnormal in 53 of 60 patients (88%) and FEV1 was abnormal in 37 of 60 patients (62%). FEV1 negatively correlated with the lung clearance index (r = -0.51, P < 0.0001). Across CT scores, there was a relationship with the lung clearance index, with little evidence of an effect of FEV1. There were no significant associations between the lung clearance index or FEV1 and health-related quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS: The lung clearance index is repeatable and a more sensitive measure than FEV1 in the detection of abnormalities demonstrated on CT scan. The lung clearance index has the potential to be a useful clinical and research tool in patients with bronchiectasis.

Radiological characterization of clay mixed red mud in particular as regards its leaching features

The reuse of industrial by-products such as red mud is of great importance. In the case of the building material industry the reuse of red mud requires a cautious attitude, since the enhanced radionuclide content of red mud can have an effect on human health. The natural radionuclide content of red mud from the Ajka red mud reservoir and the clay sample from a Hungarian brick factory were determined by gamma spectrometry. It was found that maximum 27.8% red mud content can be added to fulfil the conditions of the EU-BSS. The effect of heat treatment was investigated on a red mud-clay mixture and it was found that in the case of radon and thoron exhalation the applied heat reduced remarkably the exhalation capacities. The leaching features of red mud and different mixtures were studied according to the MSZ-21470-50 Hungarian standard, the British CEN/TS 14429 standard and the Tessier sequential extraction method. The Tessier method and the MSZ-21470-50 standard are suitable for the characterization of materials; however, they do not provide enough information for waste deposition purposes. To this end, we propose using the CEN/TS 14429 method, because it is easy to use, and gives detailed information about the material's behaviour under different pH conditions, however, further measurements are necessary.

Radiological and material characterization of high volume fly ash concrete

The main goal of research presented in this paper was the material and radiological characterization of high volume fly ash concrete (HVFAC) in terms of determination of natural radionuclide content and radon emanation and exhalation coefficients. All concrete samples were made with a fly ash content between 50% and 70% of the total amount of cementitious materials from one coal burning power plant in Serbia. Physical (fresh and hardened concrete density) and mechanical properties (compressive strength, splitting tensile strength and modulus of elasticity) of concrete were tested. The radionuclide content (226Ra, 232Th and 40K) and radon massic exhalation of HVFAC samples were determined using gamma spectrometry. Determination of massic exhalation rates of HVFAC and its components using radon accumulation chamber techniques combined with a radon monitor was performed. The results show a beneficial effect of pozzolanic activity since the increase in fly ash content resulted in an increase in compressive strength of HVFAC by approximately 20% for the same mass of cement used in the mixtures. On the basis of the obtained radionuclide content of concrete components the I -indices of different HVFAC samples were calculated and compared with measured values (0.27e0.32), which were significantly below the recommended 1.0 index value. The prediction was relatively close to the measured values as the ratio between the calculated and measured I-index ranged between 0.89 and 1.14. Collected results of mechanical and radiological properties and performed calculations clearly prove that all 10 designed concretes with a certain type of fly ash are suitable for structural and non-structural applications both from a material and radiological point of view.

Comparison of excess radiological risk of building materials and industrial by-products according to I-index (EU-BSS) and revised room model (IAEA SSG-32)

To get a better insight into the radiological features of industrial by-products that can be reused in building materials a review of the reported scientific data can be very useful. The current study is based on the continuously growing database of the By-BM (H2020-MSCA-IF-2015) project (By-products for Building Materials). Currently, the By-BM database contains individual data of about 431 by-products and 1095 building and raw materials. It was found that in case of the building materials the natural radionuclide content varied widely (Ra-226: <DL-27851 Bq/kg; Th-232: <DL-906 Bq/kg, K-40: <DL-17922 Bq/kg), more so than for the by-products (Ra-226: 7-3152 Bq/kg; Th-232: <DL-1350 Bq/kg, K-40: <DL-3001 Bq/kg). The average Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40 contents of the reported by-products were respectively 2.52, 2.35 and 0.39 times higher than the building materials. The gamma exposure of bulk building products was calculated according to IAEA Specific Safety Guide No. SSG-32 and the European Commission Radiation Protection 112 based I-index (EU BSS). It was found that in most cases the I-index without density consideration provides a significant overestimation in excess effective dose.