Modelo de predicción electoral: el caso de la elección municipal 2015 de León de los Aldama, Guanajuato

El artículo analiza los cambios político electorales en León, Guanajuato, a partir de cómo se fue configurando el desplazamiento del Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) por el Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) en este ayuntamiento en el año 1988, hasta el cambio de correlación de fuerzas en el año 2012. Ello da pauta para analizar los escenarios que podrían caracterizar las próximas elecciones de este año. Con este objetivo se propone un modelo estadístico para dicho estudio: el modelo de regresión Dirichlet, el cual permite considerar la naturaleza de los datos electorales.
The article analyzes the electoral changes in León, Guanajuato, based on how it was setting the displacement of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) by the National Action Party (PAN) in this council in 1988, until the change of correlation forces in 2012, which gives guidelines to analyze the scenarios that could characterize the upcoming elections this year. With this aim the authors proposed a statistical model for the study: the Dirichlet regression model, which allows to consider the nature of electoral data.

Uses of Agent-Based Modeling for Health Communication: the TELL ME Case Study

Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals' protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.