The direction aftereffect is driven by adaptation of local motion detectors

The processing of motion information by the visual system can be decomposed into two general stages; point-by-point local motion extraction, followed by global motion extraction through the pooling of the local motion signals. The direction aftereVect (DAE) is a well known phenomenon in which prior adaptation to a unidirectional moving pattern results in an exaggerated perceived direction diVerence between the adapted direction and a subsequently viewed stimulus moving in a diVerent direction. The experiments in this paper sought to identify where the adaptation underlying the DAE occurs within the motion processing hierarchy. We found that the DAE exhibits interocular transfer, thus demonstrating that the underlying adapted neural mechanisms are binocularly driven and must, therefore, reside in the visual cortex. The remaining experiments measured the speed tuning of the DAE, and used the derived function to test a number of local and global models of the phenomenon. Our data provide compelling evidence that the DAE is driven by the adaptation of motion-sensitive neurons at the local-processing stage of motion encoding. This is in contrast to earlier research showing that direction repulsion, which can be viewed as a simultaneous presentation counterpart to the DAE, is a global motion process. This leads us to conclude that the DAE and direction repulsion reflect interactions between motion-sensitive neural mechanisms at different levels of the motion-processing hierarchy.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pharmaceutical care of patients with congestive heart failure: Interventions and outcomes

We evaluated a structured pharmaceutical care program for elderly patients (> 65 yrs) with congestive heart failure (CHF) based on objective measures of disease control, quality of life, and use of health care facilities in a randomized, controlled, longitudinal, prospective clinical trial. The 42 patients in group A received education from a pharmacist on the disease and its treatment, and lifestyle changes that could help control symptoms. Patients also were encouraged to monitor their symptoms and comply with prescribed drug therapy. If necessary, dosage regimens were simplified in liaison with hospital physicians. The 41 control patients (group B) received standard care. The following outcome measures were assessed in all patients at baseline (before the start of the trial) and at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months: 2-minute walk test, blood pressure, body weight, pulse, forced vital capacity, quality of life [disease-specific (Minnesota Living with Heart Failure questionnaire) and generic (SF-36)], knowledge of symptoms and drugs, compliance with therapy, and use of health care facilities (hospital admissions, visits to emergency room, emergency calls). Patients in group A showed improved compliance with drug therapy, which in turn improved their exercise capacity compared with those in group B; education on management of symptoms, lifestyle changes, and dietary recommendations were also of benefit. Group A patients significantly improved knowledge of their drug therapy over the 12-month study and had fewer hospital admissions compared with group B patients. They also had improved outcomes compared with group B, despite the small samples. An extension of this trial to other sites with pooling of results would provide additional evidence of the value of this structured program in elderly patients with CHF.

Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials comparing latanoprost with timolol in the treatment of patients with open angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension

Aim - To evaluate the comparative efficacy and tolerance of latanoprost versus timolol through a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Methods - Systematic retrieval of RCTs of latanoprost versus timolol to allow pooling of results from head to head comparison studies. Quality of trials was assessed based on randomisation, masking, and withdrawal. Sensitivity analyses were used to estimate the effects of quality of study on outcomes. The data sources were Medline, Embase, Scientific Citation Index, Merck Glaucoma, and Pharmacia and Upjohn ophthalmology databases. There were 1256 patients with open angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension reported in 11 trials of latanoprost versus timolol. The main outcome measures were (i) percentage intraocular pressure (IOP) reduction for efficacy; (ii) relative risk, risk difference, and number needed to harm for side effects such as hyperaemia, conjunctivitis, increased pigmentation, hypotension, and bradycardia expressed as dichotomous outcomes; and (iii) reduction in systemic blood pressure and heart rate as side effects. Results - Both 0.005% latanoprost once daily and 0.5% timolol twice daily reduced IOP. The percentage reductions in IOP from baseline (mean (SE)) produced by latanoprost and timolol were 30.2 (2.3) and 26.9 (3.4) at 3 months. The difference in IOP reduction between the two treatments were 5.0 (95% confidence intervals 2.8, 7.3). However, latanoprost caused iris pigmentation in more patients than timolol (relative risk = 8.01, 95% confidence intervals 1.87, 34.30). The 2 year risk with latanoprost reached 18% (51/277). Hyperaemia was also more often observed with latanoprost (relative risk = 2.20, 95% confidence intervals 1.33, 3.64). Timolol caused a significant reduction in heart rate of 4 beats/minute (95% confidence interval 2, 6). Conclusion - This meta-analysis suggests that latanoprost is more effective than timolol in lowering IOP. However, it often causes iris pigmentation. While current evidence suggests that this pigmentation is benign, careful lifetime evaluation of patients is still justified.

Direction repulsion goes global

When viewing two superimposed, translating sets of dots moving in different directions, one overestimates the direction difference. This phenomenon of direction repulsion is thought to be driven by inhibitory interactions between directionally tuned motion detectors [1, 2]. However, there is disagreement on where this occurs — at early stages of motion processing [1, 3], or at the later, global motion-processing stage following “pooling” of these measures [4–6]. These two stages of motion pro - cessing have been identified as occurring in area V1 and the human homolog of macaque MT/V5, respectively[7, 8]. We designed experiments in which local and global predictions of repulsion are pitted against one another. Our stimuli contained a target set of dots, moving at a uniform speed, superimposed on a “mixed-speed” distractor set. Because the perceived speed of a mixed-speed stimulus is equal to the dots’ average speed [9], a global-processing account of direction repulsion predicts that repulsion magnitude induced by a mixed-speed distractor will be indistinguishable from that induced by a single-speed distractor moving at the same mean speed. This is exactly what we found. These results provide compelling evidence that global-motion interactions play a major role in driving direction repulsion.

Habitat for Humanity: Calibrating Best Practice Against the MDGs

Poverty alleviation lies at the heart of contemporary international initiatives on development. The key to development is the creation of an environment in which people can develop their potential, leading productive, creative lives in accordance with their needs, interests and faith. This entails, on the one hand, protecting the vulnerable from things that threaten their survival, such as inadequate nutrition, disease, conflict, natural disasters and the impact of climate change, thereby enhancing the poor’s capabilities to develop resilience in difficult conditions. On the other hand, it also requires a means of empowering the poor to act on their own behalf, as individuals and communities, to secure access to resources and the basic necessities of life such as water, food, shelter, sanitation, health and education. ‘Development’, from this perspective, seeks to address the sources of human insecurity, working towards ‘freedom from want, freedom from fear’ in ways that empower the vulnerable as agents of development (not passive recipients of benefaction).

Recognition of the magnitude of the problems confronted by the poor and failure of past interventions to tackle basic issues of human security led the United Nations (UN) in September 2000 to set out a range of ambitious, but clearly defined, development goals to be achieved by 2015. These are known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The intention of the UN was to mobilise multilateral international organisations, non-governmental organisations and the wider international community to focus attention on fulfilling earlier promises to combat global poverty. This international framework for development prioritises: the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger; achieving universal primary education; promoting gender equality and empowering women; reducing child mortality; improving maternal health; combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensuring environmental sustainability; and developing a global partnership for development. These goals have been mapped onto specific targets (18 in total) against which outcomes of associated development initiatives can be measured and the international community held to account. If the world achieves the MDGs, more than 500 million people will be lifted out of poverty. However, the challenges the goals represent are formidable. Interim reports on the initiative indicate a need to scale-up efforts and accelerate progress.
Only MDG 7, Target 11 explicitly identifies shelter as a priority, identifying the need to secure ‘by 2020 a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers’. This raises a question over how Habitat for Humanity’s commitment to tackling poverty housing fits within this broader international framework designed to allievate global poverty. From an analysis of HFH case studies, this report argues that the processes by which Habitat for Humanity tackles poverty housing directly engages with the agenda set by the MDGs. This should not be regarded as a beneficial by-product of the delivery of decent, affordable shelter, but rather understood in terms of the ways in which Habitat for Humanity has translated its mission and values into a participatory model that empowers individuals and communities to address the interdependencies between inadequate shelter and other sources of human insecurity. What housing can deliver is as important as what housing itself is.

Examples of the ways in which Habitat for Humanity projects engage with the MDG framework include the incorporation of sustainable livelihoods strategies, up-grading of basic infrastructure and promotion of models of good governance. This includes housing projects that have also offered training to young people in skills used in the construction industry, microfinanced loans for women to start up their own home-based businesses, and the provision of food gardens. These play an important role in lifting families out of poverty and ensuring the sustainability of HFH projects. Studies of the impact of improved shelter and security of livelihood upon family life and the welfare of children evidence higher rates of participation in education, more time dedicated to study and greater individual achievement. Habitat for Humanity projects also typically incorporate measures to up-grade the provision of basic sanitation facilities and supplies of safe, potable drinking water. These measures not only directly help reduce mortality rates (e.g. diarrheal diseases account for around 2 million deaths annually in children under 5), but also, when delivered through HFH project-related ‘community funds’, empower the poor to mobilise community resources, develop local leadership capacities and even secure de facto security of tenure from government authorities.

In the process of translating its mission and values into practical measures, HFH has developed a range of innovative practices that deliver much more than housing alone. The organisation’s participatory model enables both direct beneficiaries and the wider community to tackle the insecurities they face, unlocking latent skills and enterprise, building sustainable livelihood capabilities. HFH plays an important role as a catalyst for change, delivering through the vehicle of housing the means to address the primary causes of poverty itself. Its contribution to wider development priorities deserves better recognition. In calibrating the success of HFH projects in terms of units completed or renovated alone, the significance of the process by which HFH realises these outcomes is often not sufficiently acknowledged, both within the organisation and externally. As the case studies developed in the report illustrate, the methodologies Habitat for Humanity employs to address the issue of poverty housing within the developing world, place the organisation at the centre of a global strategic agenda to address the root causes of poverty through community empowerment and the transformation of structures of governance.

Given this, the global network of HFH affiliates constitutes a unique organisational framework to faciliate sharing resources, ideas and practical experience across a diverse range of cultural, political and institutional environments. This said, it is apparent that work needs to be done to better to faciliate the pooling of experience and lessons learnt from across its affiliates. Much is to be gained from learning from less successful projects, sharing innovative practices, identifying strategic partnerships with donors, other NGOs and CBOs, and engaging with the international development community on how housing fits within a broader agenda to alleviate poverty and promote good governance.

Bandwidth selection by cross-validation for forecasting long memory financial time series

The paper addresses the issue of choice of bandwidth in the application of semiparametric estimation of the long memory parameter in a univariate time series process. The focus is on the properties of forecasts from the long memory model. A variety of cross-validation methods based on out of sample forecasting properties are proposed. These procedures are used for the choice of bandwidth and subsequent model selection. Simulation evidence is presented that demonstrates the advantage of the proposed new methodology.

Exercise rehabilitation following intensive care unit discharge for recovery from critical illness

Background: Skeletal muscle wasting and weakness are significant complications of critical illness, associated with the degree of illness severity and periods of reduced mobility during mechanical ventilation. They contribute to the profound physical and functional deficits observed in survivors. These impairments may persist for many years following discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU) and may markedly influence health-related quality of life. Rehabilitation is a key strategy in the recovery of patients following critical illness. Exercise based interventions are aimed at targeting this muscle wasting and weakness. Physical rehabilitation delivered during ICU admission has been systematically evaluated and shown to be beneficial. However its effectiveness when initiated after ICU discharge has yet to be established. Objectives: To assess the effectiveness of exercise rehabilitation programmes, initiated after ICU discharge, on functional exercise capacity and health-related quality of life in adult ICU survivors who have been mechanically ventilated for more than 24 hours. Search methods:We searched the following databases: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library), OvidSP MEDLINE, Ovid SP EMBASE, and CINAHL via EBSCO host to 15th May 2014. We used a specific search strategy for each database. This included synonyms for ICU and critical illness, exercise training and rehabilitation. We searched the reference lists of included studies and contacted primary authors to obtain further information regarding potentially eligible studies. We also searched major clinical trials registries (Clinical Trials and Current Controlled Trials) and the personal libraries of the review authors. We applied no language or publication restriction. We reran the search in February 2015. We will deal with any studies of interest when we update the review.  Selection criteria:We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs, and controlled clinical trials (CCTs) that compared an exercise interventioninitiated after ICU discharge to any other intervention or a control or ‘usual care’ programme in adult (≥18years) survivors ofcritical illness. Data collection and analysis:We used standard methodological procedures expected by The Cochrane Collaboration. Main results:We included six trials (483 adult ICU participants). Exercise-based interventions were delivered on the ward in two studies; both onthe ward and in the community in one study; and in the community in three studies. The duration of the intervention varied according to the length of stay in hospital following ICU discharge (up to a fixed duration of 12 weeks).Risk of bias was variable for all domains across all trials. High risk of bias was evident in all studies for performance bias, although blinding of participants and personnel in therapeutic rehabilitation trials can be pragmatically challenging. Low risk of bias was at least 50% for all other domains across all trials, although high risk of bias was present in one study for random sequence generation (selection bias), incomplete outcome data (attrition bias) and other sources. Risk of bias was unclear for remaining studies across the domains.All six studies measured effect on the primary outcome of functional exercise capacity, although there was wide variability in natureof intervention, outcome measures and associated metrics, and data reporting. Overall quality of the evidence was very low. Only two studies using the same outcome measure for functional exercise capacity, had the potential for pooling of data and assessment of heterogeneity. On statistical advice, this was considered inappropriate to perform this analysis and study findings were therefore qualitatively described. Individually, three studies reported positive results in favour of the intervention. A small benefit (versus. control)was evident in anaerobic threshold in one study (mean difference, MD (95% confidence interval, CI), 1.8 mlO2/kg/min (0.4 to 3.2),P value = 0.02), although this effect was short-term, and in a second study, both incremental (MD 4.7 (95% CI 1.69 to 7.75) Watts, P value = 0.003) and endurance (MD 4.12 (95% CI 0.68 to 7.56) minutes, P value = 0.021) exercise testing demonstrated improvement.Finally self-reported physical function increased significantly following a rehabilitation manual (P value = 0.006). Remaining studies found no effect of the intervention.Similar variability in with regard findings for the primary outcome of health-related quality of life were also evident. Only two studies evaluated this outcome. Following statistical advice, these data again were considered inappropriate for pooling to determine overall effect and assessment of heterogeneity. Qualitative description of findings was therefore undertaken. Individually, neither study reported differences between intervention and control groups for health-related quality of life as a result of the intervention. Overall quality of the evidence was very low.Mortality was reported by all studies, ranging from 0% to 18.8%. Only one non-mortality adverse event was reported across all patients in all studies (a minor musculoskeletal injury). Withdrawals, reported in four studies, ranged from 0% to 26.5% in control groups,and 8.2% to 27.6% in intervention groups. Loss to follow-up, reported in all studies, ranged from 0% to 14% in control groups, and 0% to 12.5% in intervention groups. Authors’ conclusions:We are unable, at this time, to determine an overall effect on functional exercise capacity, or health-related quality of life, of an exercise based intervention initiated after ICU discharge in survivors of critical illness. Meta-analysis of findings was not appropriate. This was due to insufficient study number and data. Individual study findings were inconsistent. Some studies reported a beneficial effect of the intervention on functional exercise capacity, and others not. No effect was reported on health-related quality of life. Methodological rigour was lacking across a number of domains influencing quality of the evidence. There was also wide variability in the characteristics of interventions, outcome measures and associated metrics, and data reporting.If further trials are identified, we may be able to determine the effect of exercise-based interventions following ICU discharge, on functional exercise capacity and health-related quality of life in survivors of critical illness.

New Organizational Leadership: Nonstate Actors in Global Economic Governance

States and international organizations have found irresistible cause in a globalizing world to coopt nonstate actors (NGOs, private standard setters and so forth) to manage the manifold problems arising under their stretched mandates and resources. The pooling of capacities in the pursuit of common goals seems perfectly sensible. Yet although the strategy of cooptation has become a policy of choice, policy makers often lack full knowledge of its implications. As Philip Selznick first showed, cooptation can have unintended consequences, shifting leadership from one organization to another. We place this fertile insight in a better specified analytical framework. That is, one capable of explaining when and how leadership shifts occur and where the status quo leaders will remain at the helm. Using original interview data and structured focused comparisons to test the framework, we reveal dramatic variation in leadership changes following the cooptation of outside actors in global financial and environmental governance.

Effect of pooling samples on the efficiency of comparative studies using microarrays

Motivation: Many biomedical experiments are carried out by pooling individual biological samples. However, pooling samples can potentially hide biological variance and give false confidence concerning the data significance. In the context of microarray experiments for detecting differentially expressed genes, recent publications have addressed the problem of the efficiency of sample pooling, and some approximate formulas were provided for the power and sample size calculations. It is desirable to have exact formulas for these calculations and have the approximate results checked against the exact ones. We show that the difference between the approximate and the exact results can be large.

Efficient Evaluation of Multidimensional Time-Varying Density Forecasts

We propose two simple evaluation methods for time varying density forecasts of continuous higher dimensional random variables. Both methods are based on the probability integral transformation for unidimensional forecasts. The first method tests multinormal densities and relies on the rotation of the coordinate system. The advantage of the second method is not only its applicability to any continuous distribution but also the evaluation of the forecast accuracy in specific regions of its domain as defined by the user’s interest. We show that the latter property is particularly useful for evaluating a multidimensional generalization of the Value at Risk. In simulations and in an empirical study, we examine the performance of both tests.

Neural network forecasts of input-output technology

A significant part of the literature on input-output (IO) analysis is dedicated to the development and application of methodologies forecasting and updating technology coefficients and multipliers. Prominent among such techniques is the RAS method, while more information demanding econometric methods, as well as other less promising ones, have been proposed. However, there has been little interest expressed in the use of more modern and often more innovative methods, such as neural networks in IO analysis in general. This study constructs, proposes and applies a Backpropagation Neural Network (BPN) with the purpose of forecasting IO technology coefficients and subsequently multipliers. The RAS method is also applied on the same set of UK IO tables, and the discussion of results of both methods is accompanied by a comparative analysis. The results show that the BPN offers a valid alternative way of IO technology forecasting and many forecasts were more accurate using this method. Overall, however, the RAS method outperformed the BPN but the difference is rather small to be systematic and there are further ways to improve the performance of the BPN.

Dynamic Density Forecasts for Multivariate Asset Returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the Method of Moments for a carefully selected set of co-moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the “negative tail” of the joint distribution.

Genome-wide association identifies a common variant in the reelin gene that increases the risk of schizophrenia only in women

Sex differences in schizophrenia are well known, but their genetic basis has not been identified. We performed a genome-wide association scan for schizophrenia in an Ashkenazi Jewish population using DNA pooling. We found a female-specific association with rs7341475, a SNP in the fourth intron of the reelin ( RELN) gene (p = 2.9 x 10(-5) in women), with a significant gene-sex effect (p = 1.8 x 10(-4)). We studied rs7341475 in four additional populations, totaling 2,274 cases and 4,401 controls. A significant effect was observed only in women, replicating the initial result (p = 2.1 x 10(-3) in women; p = 4.2 x 10(-3) for gene-sex interaction). Based on all populations the estimated relative risk of women carrying the common genotype is 1.58 (p = 8.8 x 10(-7); p = 1.6 x 10(-5) for gene-sex interaction). The female-specific association between RELN and schizophrenia is one of the few examples of a replicated sex-specific genetic association in any disease.