Uses of Agent-Based Modeling for Health Communication: the TELL ME Case Study

Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals' protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.

Heart failure in sub-Saharan Africa: review of the aetiology of heart failure and the role of point-of-care biomarker diagnostics

Within Africa, the burden of heart failure is significant. This arises from the increase in cardiovascular disease and associated risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes, as well as causes of heart failure which are particular to sub-Saharan Africa, such as endomyocardial fibrosis. The lack of access to echocardiography and other imaging modalities, from a cost and technical perspective, combined with the predominantly rural nature of many countries with poor transport links, means that the vast majority of people never obtain an appropriate diagnosis. Similarly, research has been limited on the causes and treatment of heart failure in Africa and in particular endemic causes such as EMF and rheumatic heart disease. This review outlines the burden of heart failure in Africa and highlights the opportunity to expand diagnosis through the use of biomarkers, in particular natriuretic peptides. This builds on the success of point-of-care testing in human immunodeficiency virus and tuberculosis which have been extensively deployed in community settings in Africa.

Clinical Outcomes in 3343 Children and Adults with Rheumatic Heart Disease from 14 Low and Middle Income Countries: 2-Year Follow-up of the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (the REMEDY study)

BACKGROUND: -There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) or information on their predictors. We report the two year follow-up of individuals with RHD from 14 low and middle income countries in Africa and Asia.

METHODS: -Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for two years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), recurrent acute rheumatic fever (ARF), and infective endocarditis (IE).

RESULTS: -Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age 28 years, interquartile range 18 to 40), the two year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio (HR) 2.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80-3.11), CHF (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.70-2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.32-2.10), atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.10-1.78) and older age (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.02 per year increase) at enrolment. Post-primary education (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54-0.85) and female sex (HR 0.65, 95%CI 0.52-0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. 204 (6.9%) had new CHF (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or TIA (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had ARF (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had IE (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/TIA or systemic embolism. Patients from low and lower-middle income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality compared to patients from upper-middle income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle income than in lower-middle- or low-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS: -Patients with clinical RHD have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low and lower-middle income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and treatment of clinical RHD are required to improve outcomes.

Epigenetic Therapy for the Treatment of Hypertension-Induced Cardiac Hypertrophy and Fibrosis

BACKGROUND: The development of heart failure is associated with changes in the size, shape, and structure of the heart that has a negative impact on cardiac function. These pathological changes involve excessive extracellular matrix deposition within the myocardial interstitium and myocyte hypertrophy. Alterations in fibroblast phenotype and myocyte activity are associated with reprogramming of gene transcriptional profiles that likely requires epigenetic alterations in chromatin structure. The aim of our work was to investigate the potential of a currently licensed anticancer epigenetic modifier as a treatment option for cardiac diseases associated with hypertension-induced cardiac hypertrophy and fibrosis.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The effects of DNA methylation inhibition with 5-azacytidine (5-aza) were examined in a human primary fibroblast cell line and in a spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR) model. The results from this work allude to novel in vivo antifibrotic and antihypertrophic actions of 5-aza. Administration of the DNA methylation inhibitor significantly improved several echocardiographic parameters associated with hypertrophy and diastolic dysfunction. Myocardial collagen levels and myocyte size were reduced in 5-aza-treated SHRs. These findings are supported by beneficial in vitro effects in cardiac fibroblasts. Collagen I, collagen III, and α-smooth muscle actin were reduced in a human ventricular cardiac fibroblast cell line treated with 5-aza.

CONCLUSION: These findings suggest a role for epigenetic modifications in contributing to the profibrotic and hypertrophic changes evident during disease progression. Therapeutic intervention with 5-aza demonstrated favorable effects highlighting the potential use of this epigenetic modifier as a treatment option for cardiac pathologies associated with hypertrophy and fibrosis.

D4.3 Prototype Software (Documentation)

The agent-based social simulation component of the TELL ME project (WP4) developed prototype software to assist communications planners to understand the complex relationships between communication, personal protective behaviour and epidemic spread. Using the simulation, planners can enter different potential communications plans, and see their simulated effect on attitudes, behaviour and the consequent effect on an influenza epidemic.

The model and the software to run the model are both freely available (see section 2.2.1 for instructions on how to obtain the relevant files). This report provides the documentation for the prototype software. The major component is the user guide (Section 2). This provides instructions on how to set up the software, some training scenarios to become familiar with the model operation and use, and details about the model controls and output.

The model contains many parameters. Default values and their source are described at Section 3. These are unlikely to be suitable for all countries, and may also need to be changed as new research is conducted. Instructions for how to customise these values are also included (see section 3.5).

The final technical reference contains two parts. The first is a guide for advanced users who wish to run multiple simulations and analyse the results (section 4.1). The second is to orient programmers who wish to adapt or extend the simulation model (section 4.2). This material is not suitable for general users.