Addressing Bed Costs for the Elderly: A New Methodology for Modelling Patient Outcomes and Length of Stay

The proportion of elderly in the population has dramatically increased and will continue to do so for at least the next 50 years. Medical resources throughout the world are feeling the added strain of the increasing proportion of elderly in the population. The effective care of elderly patients in hospitals may be enhanced by accurately modelling the length of stay of the patients in hospital and the associated costs involved. This paper examines previously developed models for patient length of stay in hospital and describes the recently developed conditional phase-type distribution (C-Ph) to model patient duration of stay in relation to explanatory patient variables. The Clinics data set was used to demonstrate the C-Ph methodology. The resulting model highlighted a strong relationship between Barthel grade, patient outcome and length of stay showing various groups of patient behaviour. The patients who stay in hospital for a very long time are usually those that consume the largest amount of hospital resources. These have been identified as the patients whose resulting outcome is transfer. Overall, the majority of transfer patients spend a considerably longer period of time in hospital compared to patients who die or are discharged home. The C-Ph model has the potential for considering costs where different costs are attached to the various phases or subgroups of patients and the anticipated cost of care estimated in advance. It is hoped that such a method will lead to the successful identification of the most cost effective case-mix management of the hospital ward.

Retroviral-mediated gene transfer of the human erythropoietin gene into a factor-dependent cell line, TF-1

The factor-dependent cell line, TF-1, established from a patient with erythroleukaemia, shows characteristics of immature erythroblasts. Addition of granulocyte-macrophage colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF) to the culture medium is required for long-term growth of the cells. Erythropoietin (Epo) can also be used to sustain TF-1 cells but for only limited periods (approximately a week). Low levels of both growth factors can act synergistically to maintain proliferation for a longer period of time than Epo alone. To eliminate the requirement of exogenous Epo for growth, TF-1 cells were co-cultured with a retroviral secreting cell line containing the human erythropoietin (hEpo) gene and a neomycin (neo) selectable marker. TF-1 cells which exhibited neo resistance (indicating infection by the retrovirus) were then grown in low concentrations of GM-CSF without the addition of Epo. Under these conditions growth of normal TF-1 cells was not sustained. The neo-resistant cells survived for more than 14 days indicating synergy between GM-CSF and the Epo synthesised by the co-cultured TF-1 cells. Radioimmunoassays performed on growth media detected concentrations up to 1 mU/ml of Epo, implying that stable integration of the retroviral vector and expression of the hEpo gene have been achieved.