Reducing Uncertainty in Aeroelastic Flutter Boundaries Using Experimental Data

Flutter prediction as currently practiced is usually deterministic, with a single structural model used to represent an aircraft. By using interval analysis to take into account structural variability, recent work has demonstrated that small changes in the structure can lead to very large changes in the altitude at which
utter occurs (Marques, Badcock, et al., J. Aircraft, 2010). In this follow-up work we examine the same phenomenon using probabilistic collocation (PC), an uncertainty quantification technique which can eficiently propagate multivariate stochastic input through a simulation code,
in this case an eigenvalue-based fluid-structure stability code. The resulting analysis predicts the consequences of an uncertain structure on incidence of
utter in probabilistic terms { information that could be useful in planning
flight-tests and assessing the risk of structural failure. The uncertainty in
utter altitude is confirmed to be substantial. Assuming that the structural uncertainty represents a epistemic uncertainty regarding the
structure, it may be reduced with the availability of additional information { for example aeroelastic response data from a flight-test. Such data is used to update the structural uncertainty using Bayes' theorem. The consequent
utter uncertainty is significantly reduced across the entire Mach number range.

Trace Element Abundance and Renal Disease

This research investigates the relationship between elevated trace elements in soils, stream sediments and stream water and the prevalence of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD). The study uses a collaboration of datasets provided from the UK Renal Registry Report (UKRR) on patients with renal diseases requiring treatment including Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT), the soil geochemical dataset for Northern Ireland provided by the Tellus Survey, Geological Survey of Northern Ireland (GSNI) and the bioaccessibility of Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) from soil samples which were obtained from the Unified Barge Method (UBM). The relationship between these factors derives from the UKRR report which highlights incidence rates of renal impaired patients showing regional variation with cases of unknown aetiology. Studies suggest a potential cause of the large variation and uncertain aetiology is associated with underlying environmental factors such as the oral bioaccessibility of trace elements in the gastrointestinal tract.
As previous research indicates that long term exposure is related to environmental factors, Northern Ireland is ideally placed for this research as people traditionally live in the same location for long periods of time. Exploratory data analysis and multivariate analyses are used to examine the soil, stream sediments and stream water geochemistry data for a range of key elements including arsenic, lead, cadmium and mercury identified from a review of previous renal disease literature. The spatial prevalence of patients with long term CKD is analysed on an area basis. Further work includes cluster analysis to detect areas of low or high incidences of CKD that are significantly correlated in space, Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) and Poisson kriging to examine locally varying relationship between elevated concentrations of PTEs and the prevalence of CKD.

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Soil Organic Carbon Assessment using an Integrated Geostatistical and Compositional Data Analysis Approach

The Irish and UK governments, along with other countries, have made a commitment to limit the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by reducing emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. This can be achieved (in part) through increasing the sequestration of CO2 from the atmosphere including monitoring the amount stored in vegetation and soils. A large proportion of soil carbon is held within peat due to the relatively high carbon density of peat and organic-rich soils. This is particularly important for a country such as Ireland, where some 16% of the land surface is covered by peat. For Northern Ireland, it has been estimated that the total amount of carbon stored in vegetation is 4.4Mt compared to 386Mt stored within peat and soils. As a result it has become increasingly important to measure and monitor changes in stores of carbon in soils. The conservation and restoration of peat covered areas, although ongoing for many years, has become increasingly important. This is summed up in current EU policy outlined by the European Commission (2012) which seeks to assess the relative contributions of the different inputs and outputs of organic carbon and organic matter to and from soil. Results are presented from the EU-funded Tellus Border Soil Carbon Project (2011 to 2013) which aimed to improve current estimates of carbon in soil and peat across Northern Ireland and the bordering counties of the Republic of Ireland.
Historical reports and previous surveys provide baseline data. To monitor change in peat depth and soil organic carbon, these historical data are integrated with more recently acquired airborne geophysical (radiometric) data and ground-based geochemical data generated by two surveys, the Tellus Project (2004-2007: covering Northern Ireland) and the EU-funded Tellus Border project (2011-2013) covering the six bordering counties of the Republic of Ireland, Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth. The concept being applied is that saturated organic-rich soil and peat attenuate gamma-radiation from underlying soils and rocks. This research uses the degree of spatial correlation (coregionalization) between peat depth, soil organic carbon (SOC) and the attenuation of the radiometric signal to update a limited sampling regime of ground-based measurements with remotely acquired data. To comply with the compositional nature of the SOC data (perturbations of loss on ignition [LOI] data), a compositional data analysis approach is investigated. Contemporaneous ground-based measurements allow corroboration for the updated mapped outputs. This provides a methodology that can be used to improve estimates of soil carbon with minimal impact to sensitive habitats (like peat bogs), but with maximum output of data and knowledge.