PROGNOSTIC FACTORS PREDICTING FUNCTIONAL OUTCOME AT FOUR MONTHS FOLLOWING ACUTE ANKLE SPRAIN

PROGNOSTIC FACTORS PREDICTING FUNCTIONAL OUTCOME AT FOUR MONTHS FOLLOWING ACUTE ANKLE SPRAINBleakley C.M.1, O'Connor S.R.1, Tully M.A.2, Rocke L.G.3, MacAuley D.C.1, Bradbury I.4, Keegan S.4, McDonough S.M.11University of Ulster, Health & Rehabilitation Sciences Research Institute, Newtownabbey, United Kingdom, 2Queen's University, UKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health (NI), Belfast, United Kingdom, 3Royal Victoria Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Belfast, United Kingdom, 4Frontier Science (Scotland), Kincraig, Inverness-shire, United KingdomPurpose: To identify clinically relevant factors assessed following acute ankle sprain that predict functional recovery at four months post-injury.Relevance: Ankle sprains are one of the most common musculoskeletal injuries with an estimated 5000 new cases occurring each day in the United Kingdom. In the acute phase, ankle sprains may be associated with pain and loss of function. In the longer-term there is a risk of residual problems including chronic pain or reinjury. Few studies have sought to examine factors associated with a poor long-term prognosis.Participants: 101 patients (Age: Mean (SD) 25.9 (7.9) years; Body Mass Index (BMI): 25.3 (3.5) kg/m2) with an acute grade 1 or 2 ankle sprain attending an accident and emergency department or sports injury clinic. Exclusion criteria included complete (grade 3) rupture of the ankle ligament complex, bony ankle injury or multiple injuries.Methods: Participants were allocated as part of a randomised controlled trial to an accelerated intervention incorporating intermittent ice and early therapeutic exercise or a standard protection, rest, ice, compression, and elevation intervention for one week. Treatment was then standardised in both groups and consisted of ankle rehabilitation exercises focusing on muscle strengthening, neuromuscular training, and sports specific functional exercises for a period of approximately four to six weeks. On initial assessment age, gender, mechanism of injury, presence of an audible pop or snap and the presence of contact during the injury were recorded. The following factors were also recorded at baseline and at one and four weeks post-injury: weight-bearing dorsi-flexion test, lateral hop test, presence of medial pain on palpation and a positive impingement sign. Functional status was assessed using the Karlsson score at baseline, at week four and at four months. Reinjury rates were recorded throughout the intervention phase and at four months.Analysis: A mixed between-within subjects analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the effect of each factor on functional status at week four and at four months. Significance was set at a Bonferroni adjusted level of 0.0125 (0.05/4).Results: Eighty-five participants (84%) were available at final follow-up assessment. Pain on weight-bearing dorsi-flexion and lateral hop tests at week four were both associated with a lower functional score at four months post-injury (P = 0.011 and P = 0.001). No other significant interactions were observed at any other timepoint (baseline or week one). There were only two reinjuries within the four month follow-up period with a further two reported at approximately six months post-injury. We were therefore unable to determine whether any factors were associated with an increased risk of reinjury.Conclusions: Potential prognostic factors on initial or early examination after acute ankle sprain did not help predict functional recovery at four months post-injury. However, pain on weight-bearing dorsi-flexion and lateral hop tests observed at four weeks were associated with a slower rate of recovery.Implications: Some clinical tests may help identify patients at risk of poor functional recovery after acute ankle sprain. However, further work is required to examine factors which may be predictive on initial assessment.Key-words: 1. Prognostic factors 2. Recovery 3. Ankle sprainFunding acknowledgements: Physiotherapy Research Foundation, Chartered Society of Physiotherapy, Strategic Priority Fund; Department of Employment and Learning, Northern Ireland.Ethics approval: Office for Research Ethics Committee (UK).

The prognostic impact of clinical and molecular features in hairy cell leukaemia variant and splenic marginal zone lymphoma.

Hairy cell leukaemia variant (HCL-variant) and splenic marginal zone lymphoma (SMZL) are disorders with overlapping features. We investigated the prognostic impact in these disorders of clinical and molecular features including IGH VDJ rearrangements, IGHV gene usage and TP 53 mutations. Clinical and laboratory data were collected before therapy from 35 HCL-variant and 68 SMZL cases. End-points were the need for treatment and overall survival. 97% of HCL-variant and 77% of SMZL cases required treatment (P = 0·009). Survival at 5 years was significantly worse in HCL-variant [57% (95% confidence interval 38-73%)] compared with SMZL [84% (71-91%); Hazard Ratio 2·25 (1·20-4·25), P = 0·01]. In HCL-variant, adverse prognostic factors for survival were older age (P = 0·04), anaemia (P = 0·01) and TP 53 mutations (P = 0·02). In SMZL, splenomegaly, anaemia and IGHV genes with >98% homology to the germline predicted the need for treatment; older age, anaemia and IGHV unmutated genes (100% homology) predicted shorter survival. IGHV gene usage had no impact on clinical outcome in either disease. The combination of unfavourable factors allowed patients to be stratified into risk groups with significant differences in survival. Although HCL-variant and SMZL share some features, they have different outcomes, influenced by clinical and biological factors.

Association Between Results of a Gene Expression Signature Assay and Recurrence-Free Interval in Patients With Stage II Colon Cancer in Cancer and Leukemia Group B 9581 (Alliance)

PURPOSE: Conventional staging methods are inadequate to identify patients with stage II colon cancer (CC) who are at high risk of recurrence after surgery with curative intent. ColDx is a gene expression, microarray-based assay shown to be independently prognostic for recurrence-free interval (RFI) and overall survival in CC. The objective of this study was to further validate ColDx using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens collected as part of the Alliance phase III trial, C9581.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: C9581 evaluated edrecolomab versus observation in patients with stage II CC and reported no survival benefit. Under an initial case-cohort sampling design, a randomly selected subcohort (RS) comprised 514 patients from 901 eligible patients with available tissue. Forty-nine additional patients with recurrence events were included in the analysis. Final analysis comprised 393 patients: 360 RS (58 events) and 33 non-RS events. Risk status was determined for each patient by ColDx. The Self-Prentice method was used to test the association between the resulting ColDx risk score and RFI adjusting for standard prognostic variables.

RESULTS: Fifty-five percent of patients (216 of 393) were classified as high risk. After adjustment for prognostic variables that included mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency, ColDx high-risk patients exhibited significantly worse RFI (multivariable hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.5; P < .01). Age and MMR status were marginally significant. RFI at 5 years for patients classified as high risk was 82% (95% CI, 79% to 85%), compared with 91% (95% CI, 89% to 93%) for patients classified as low risk.

CONCLUSION: ColDx is associated with RFI in the C9581 subsample in the presence of other prognostic factors, including MMR deficiency. ColDx could be incorporated with the traditional clinical markers of risk to refine patient prognosis.

TP53 mutational status and cetuximab benefit in rectal cancer: 5-year results of the EXPERT-C trial.

In this updated analysis of the EXPERT-C trial we show that, in magnetic resonance imaging-defined, high-risk, locally advanced rectal cancer, adding cetuximab to a treatment strategy with neoadjuvant CAPOX followed by chemoradiotherapy, surgery, and adjuvant CAPOX is not associated with a statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in both KRAS/BRAF wild-type and unselected patients. In a retrospective biomarker analysis, TP53 was not prognostic but emerged as an independent predictive biomarker for cetuximab benefit. After a median follow-up of 65.0 months, TP53 wild-type patients (n = 69) who received cetuximab had a statistically significant better PFS (89.3% vs 65.0% at 5 years; hazard ratio [HR] = 0.23; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.07 to 0.78; two-sided P = .02 by Cox regression) and OS (92.7% vs 67.5% at 5 years; HR = 0.16; 95% CI = 0.04 to 0.70; two-sided P = .02 by Cox regression) than TP53 wild-type patients who were treated in the control arm. An interaction between TP53 status and cetuximab effect was found (P <.05) and remained statistically significant after adjusting for statistically significant prognostic factors and KRAS.

Functional analysis of the ATM-p53-p21 pathway in the LRF CLL4 trial: blockade at the level of p21 is associated with short response duration.

PURPOSE: This study sought to establish whether functional analysis of the ATM-p53-p21 pathway adds to the information provided by currently available prognostic factors in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) requiring frontline chemotherapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Cryopreserved blood mononuclear cells from 278 patients entering the LRF CLL4 trial comparing chlorambucil, fludarabine, and fludarabine plus cyclophosphamide were analyzed for ATM-p53-p21 pathway defects using an ex vivo functional assay that uses ionizing radiation to activate ATM and flow cytometry to measure upregulation of p53 and p21 proteins. Clinical endpoints were compared between groups of patients defined by their pathway status. RESULTS: ATM-p53-p21 pathway defects of four different types (A, B, C, and D) were identified in 194 of 278 (70%) samples. The type A defect (high constitutive p53 expression combined with impaired p21 upregulation) and the type C defect (impaired p21 upregulation despite an intact p53 response) were each associated with short progression-free survival. The type A defect was associated with chemoresistance, whereas the type C defect was associated with early relapse. As expected, the type A defect was strongly associated with TP53 deletion/mutation. In contrast, the type C defect was not associated with any of the other prognostic factors examined, including TP53/ATM deletion, TP53 mutation, and IGHV mutational status. Detection of the type C defect added to the prognostic information provided by TP53/ATM deletion, TP53 mutation, and IGHV status. CONCLUSION: Our findings implicate blockade of the ATM-p53-p21 pathway at the level of p21 as a hitherto unrecognized determinant of early disease recurrence following successful cytoreduction.

Mutational Status of the TP53 Gene As a Predictor of Response and Survival in Patients With Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: Results From the LRF CLL4 Trial

PurposeTP53 mutations have been described in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and have been associated with poor prognosis in retrospective studies. We aimed to address the frequency and prognostic value of TP53 abnormalities in patients with CLL in the context of a prospective randomized trial.Patients and MethodsWe analyzed 529 CLL samples from the LRF CLL4 (Leukaemia Research Foundation Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia 4) trial (chlorambucil v fludarabine with or without cyclophosphamide) at the time of random assignment for mutations in the TP53 gene. TP53 mutation status was correlated with response and survival data.ResultsMutations of TP53 were found in 40 patients (7.6%), including 25 (76%) of 33 with 17p deletion and 13 (3%) of 487 without that deletion. There was no significant correlation between TP53 mutations and age, stage, IGHV gene mutations, CD38 and ZAP-70 expression, or any other chromosomal abnormality other than 17p deletion, in which concordance was high (96%). TP53 mutations were significantly associated with poorer overall response rates (27% v 83%; P <.001) and shorter progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS; 5-year PFS: 5% v 17%; 5-year OS: 20% v 59%; P <.001 for both). Multivariate analysis that included baseline clinical variables, treatment, and known adverse genetic factors confirmed that TP53 mutations have added prognostic value.ConclusionTP53 mutations are associated with impaired response and shorter survival in patients with CLL. Analysis of TP53 mutations should be performed in patients with CLL who have progressive disease before starting first-line treatment, and those with mutations should be selected for novel experimental therapies. J Clin Oncol 29: 2223-2229. (C) 2011 by American Society of Clinical Oncology

Combinations of ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutational status as predictors of time to first treatment in CLL.

ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutations have all been reported to have prognostic impact in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), both individually and in paired combinations. We aimed to determine whether the combination of all three factors provided more refined prognostic information concerning the treatment-free interval (TFI) from diagnosis. ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutations were evaluated in 142 patients. Combining all three factors, the ZAP-70-/CD38-/Mutated group showed the longest median TFI (62 months, n = 37), ZAP-70+/CD38+/Unmutated cases the shortest (11 months, n = 37) and cases discordant for > or = 1 factor, an intermediate TFI (27 months, n = 68) (p = 0.006). Analysis of discordant cases revealed values that were otherwise masked when measuring single prognostic factors. The presence or absence of cytogenetic abnormalities did not explain the variability among discordant cases. Simultaneous analysis of ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutations in CLL provides more discriminatory prediction of TFI than any factor alone.