Relevance of breast cancer hormone receptors and other factors to the efficacy of adjuvant tamoxifen: patient-level meta-analysis of randomised trials

Background: As trials of 5 years of tamoxifen in early breast cancer mature, the relevance of hormone receptor measurements (and other patient characteristics) to long-term outcome can be assessed increasingly reliably. We report updated meta-analyses of the trials of 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen.
Methods: We undertook a collaborative meta-analysis of individual patient data from 20 trials (n=21457) in early breast cancer of about 5 years of tamoxifen versus no adjuvant tamoxifen, with about 80% compliance. Recurrence and death rate ratios (RRs) were from log-rank analyses by allocated treatment.
Findings: In oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease (n=10 645), allocation to about 5 years of tamoxifen substantially reduced recurrence rates throughout the first 10 years (RR 0.53 [SE 0.03] during years 0-4 and RR 0.68 [0.06] during years 5-9 [both 2p<0.00001]; but RR 0.97 [0.10] during years 10-14, suggesting no further gain or loss after year 10). Even in marginally ER-positive disease (10-19 fmol/mg cytosol protein) the recurrence reduction was substantial (RR 0.67 [0.08]). In ER-positive disease, the RR was approximately independent of progesterone receptor status (or level), age, nodal status, or use of chemotherapy. Breast cancer mortality was reduced by about a third throughout the first 15 years (RR 0.71 [0.05] during years 0-4, 0.66 [0.05] during years 5-9, and 0.68 [0.08] during years 10-14; p<0.0001 for extra mortality reduction during each separate time period). Overall non-breast-cancer mortality was little affected, despite small absolute increases in thromboembolic and uterine cancer mortality (both only in women older than 55 years), so all-cause mortality was substantially reduced. In ER-negative disease, tamoxifen had little or no effect on breast cancer recurrence or mortality.
Interpretation: 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen safely reduces 15-year risks of breast cancer recurrence and death. ER status was the only recorded factor importantly predictive of the proportional reductions. Hence, the absolute risk reductions produced by tamoxifen depend on the absolute breast cancer risks (after any chemotherapy) without tamoxifen.
Funding: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and Medical Research Council.

Factors associated with hare mortality during coursing

Hare coursing is a widespread but controversial activity. In an attempt to reduce hare mortality and mitigate the activity's impact on hare welfare, the Irish Coursing Club introduced measures including the compulsory muzzling of dogs in 1993. However, the efficacy of these measures remained the subject of heated debate. Official records, corroborated by independent video evidence, were used to assess the fate of individual Irish hares (Lepus timiclus hibernicus) during coursing events from 1988-2004. Muzzling dogs significantly reduced levels of hare mortality. In courses using unmuzzled dogs from 1988189-1992193 mean hare mortality was 15.8%, compared to 4.1% in courses using muzzled dogs from 1993194-2003104. Further reductions in mortality could not be accounted for by muzzling dogs, supporting the efficacy of other factors such as improved hare husbandry. The duration of the head start given to the hare prior to the release of the dogs significantly affected the outcome of the course. Hares that were killed had head starts of greater duration than those that were chased but survived, suggesting the former may have been slower. The selection of hares by assessment of their running ability may provide means to reduce hare mortality during courses further. Our findings support the efficacy of measures taken to mitigate the impact of coursing on individual hares. However, it is necessary to evaluate the impact of removing hares from the source population and of returning coursed hares to the wild before the wider impact of coursing on wild hare populations can be determined.

Assessing the extent to which temporal changes in waterbird community composition are driven by either local, regional or global factors.

1. Lough Neagh and Lough Beg Special Protection Area (SPA, hereafter Lough Neagh) is an important non-estuarine site in Britain and Ireland for overwintering wildfowl. Multivariate analysis of the winter counts showed a state-shift in the waterbird community following winter 2000/2001, mostly due to rapid declines in abundance (46–57% declines in the mean mid-winter January counts between 1993–2000 and 2002–2009) of members of the diving duck guild (pochard Aythya ferina, tufted duck Aythya fuligula and goldeneye Bucephala clangula) and coot (Fulica atra), a submerged macrophyte feeder.
2. Only pochard showed correlations between declines at Lough Neagh and those of overall species flyway population indices to suggest that global changes could contribute to declines at the site. However, indices from the Republic of Ireland showed no overall decline in the rest of Ireland. Tufted duck indices at the site were inversely related to indices in Great Britain. Lough Neagh goldeneye indices were positively correlated with indices in the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain, suggesting that short-stopping could contribute to declines at the site. Coot declines at Lough Neagh did not correlate with trends elsewhere, suggesting local factors involved in the decline.
3. These analyses indicate that although there are potentially different explanations for the dramatic declines in these four waterbird species at this site, the simultaneous nature of the declines across two feeding guilds strongly
suggest that local factors (such as loss of submerged macrophytes and benthic invertebrates) were involved. An assessment of the food supply, local disturbance and other factors at Lough Neagh is required to find an explanation for the observed adverse trends in wintering numbers of the affected species.
4. This study highlights the potential of waterbird community structure to reflect the status of aquatic systems, but confirms the need to establish site-specific factors responsible for the observed changes in abundance of key waterbird species at a site.

Assessment of factors that influence physician decision making regarding medication use in patients with dementia at the end of life

Objective
This study aimed to evaluate the extent to which patient-related factors and physicians' country of practice (Northern Ireland [NI] and the Republic of Ireland [RoI]) influenced decision making regarding medication use in patients with end-stage dementia.

Methods
The study utilised a factorial survey design comprising four vignettes to evaluate initiating/withholding or continuing/discontinuing specific medications in patients with dementia nearing death. Questionnaires and vignettes were mailed to all hospital physicians in geriatric medicine and to all general practitioners (GPs) in NI (November 2010) and RoI (December 2010), with a second copy provided 3 weeks after the first mailing. Logistic regression models were constructed to examine the impact of patient-related factors and physicians' country of practice on decision making. Significance was set a priori at p ≤ 0.05. Free text responses to open questions were analysed qualitatively using content analysis.

Results
The response rate was 20.6% (N = 662) [21.1% (N = 245) for GPs and 52.1% (N = 38) for hospital physicians in NI, 18.3% (N = 348) for GPs and 36.0% (N = 31) for hospital physicians in RoI]. There was considerable variability in decision making about initiating/withholding antibiotics and continuing/discontinuing the acetylcholinesterase inhibitor and memantine hydrochloride, and less variability in decision making regarding statins and antipsychotics. Patient place of residence and physician's country of practice had the strongest and most consistent effects on decision making although effect sizes were small.

Conclusions
Further research is required into other factors that may impact upon physicians' prescribing decisions for these vulnerable patients and to clarify how the factors examined in this study influence prescribing decisions.

Lifestyle factors and small intestine adenocarcinoma risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Although the incidence of small intestinal adenocarcinoma (SIA) is low, rates are increasing and little information regarding modifiable lifestyle risk factors is available.

Aim: To provide a systematic review of lifestyle factors and SIA risk.

Methods: Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE and WEB OF SCIENCE were searched from inception to Week 1 October 2013. Nine publications that reported on SIA risk in relation to alcohol intake (n=6), tobacco smoking (n=6), diet (n=5), body mass (n=3), physical activity (n=1), hormone use (n=1) and/or socio-economic status (n=3) were retrieved. Results for alcohol, smoking and SIA risk were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses to produce relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results: The summary RR for individuals consuming the highest versus lowest category of alcohol intake was 1.51 (95% CI 0.83-2.75; n=5 studies) with significant increased risks emerging in sensitivity analysis with reduced heterogeneity (RR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.05-3.15; n=4 studies). The pooled SIA RR for individuals in the highest versus lowest category of smoking was 1.24 (95% CI 0.71-2.17; n=5 studies). In relation to dietary factors, high fibre intakes and normal body weight may be protective, while high intakes of red/processed meat and sugary drinks may increase SIA risk. Evidence on socio-economic status and SIA risk was equivocal. Data on other factors were too sparse to draw any conclusions.

Conclusions: Alcohol may be associated with an increased risk of SIA. Further investigation of lifestyle factors, particularly alcohol, smoking and diet, in the aetiology of this cancer is warranted in large consortial studies.

Risk factors (excluding hormone therapy) for endometrial hyperplasia: a systematic review.

Objective: To conduct a systematic review of risk factors associated with the development of Endometrial Hyperplasia (EH).

Data sources: Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science databases were searched from inception to 30 June 2015.

Study eligibility: Fifteen observational studies that reported on EH risk in relation to lifestyle factors (n=14), medical history (n=11), reproductive and menstrual history (n=9) and measures of socio-economic status (n=2) were identified. Pooled relative risk estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were able to be derived for EH and Body Mass Index (BMI), smoking, diabetes and hypertension, using random effects models comparing high versus low categories.

Results: The pooled relative risk for EH when comparing women with the highest versus lowest BMI was 1.82 (95% CI 1.22–2.71; n=7 studies, I2=90.4%). No significant associations were observed for EH risk for smokers compared with non-smokers (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.66-1.17; n=3, I2=0.0%), hypertensive versus normotensive women (RR 1.51, 95% CI 0.72–3.15; n=5 studies, I2=79.1%), or diabetic versus non-diabetic women (RR 1.77, 95% CI 0.79–3.96; n=5 studies, I2=31.8%) respectively although the number of included studies was limited. There were mixed reports on the relationship between age and risk of EH. Too few studies reported on other factors to reach any conclusions in relation to EH risk.

Conclusions: A high BMI was associated with an increased risk of EH, providing additional rationale for women to maintain a normal body weight. No significant associations were detected for other factors and EH risk, however relatively few studies have been conducted and few of the available studies adequately adjusted for relevant confounders. Therefore, further aetiological studies of endometrial hyperplasia are warranted.

Modifiable lifestyle factors associated with risk of sessile serrated polyps, conventional adenomas, and hyperplastic polyps

Objective: To identify modifiable factors associated with sessile serrated polyps (SSPs), and compare the association of these factors to conventional adenomas (ADs) and hyperplastic polyps (HPs). Design: We utilized data from the Tennessee Colorectal Polyp Study, a colonoscopy-based case-control study. Included were 214 SSP cases, 1779 AD cases, 560 HP cases and 3851 polyp-free controls. Results: Cigarette smoking was associated with increased risk for all polyps and was stronger for SSPs than for ADs (OR 1.74. 95% CI: 1.16-2.62, for current vs. never, ptrend=0.008). Current regular use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatories (NSAID) was associated with a 40% reduction in SSPs risk in comparison to never-users (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.48-0.96, ptrend=0.03), similar to the association with AD. Red meat intake was strongly associated with SSPs risk (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.41-4.74 for highest vs. lowest intake, ptrend<0.001) and the association with SSP was stronger than with AD (ptrend=0.003). Obesity, folate intake, fiber intake, and fat intake were not associated with SSP risk after adjustment for other factors. Exercise, alcohol use, and calcium intake were not associated with risk for SSPs. Conclusion: SSPs share some modifiable risk factors for ADs, some of which are more strongly associated with SSPs than ADs. Thus, preventive efforts to reduce risk for ADs may also be applicable to SSPs. Additionally, SSPs have some distinctive risk factors. Future studies should evaluate the preventive strategies for these factors. The findings from this study also contribute to an understanding of the etiology and biology of SSPs.

Social Work in the Republic of Ireland: A History of the Present

This article reports on research carried out into the nature and position of social work in the child protection and welfare system in Ireland. Employing a methodology of a history of the present, this research sought to crtically examine the nature and position of social work within the social as a 'psy expert'. Selected findings relating to the genealogical and archaeological construction of social work discourse in Ireland are provided to illuminate how its particular historical pathways both enabled and constrained its development. It was found that, to some extent, conceptualizations of social work in the context of its space within the social were applicable to the Irish context. however, it was also found that a number of other factors were also significant, implying the need for problematization of existing theories of the social. Although some of the findings relate directly to the particular spatial context of Ireland, others are transferable to the UK and international contexts. The research asserts that, while social work represents a diffuse and complex activity, enabled and constrained by its genealogical context, the potential exists in the profesion for greater attention to be apid to its archaeoloigcal construction. In light of contemporary neo-liberal conditions of governance, the need for such attention is emphasized.

Common psychology problems in cerebral palsy

Cerebral palsy (CP) refers to a collection of motor impairments which result in abnormal posture and movement following an insult or damage to the developing brain. Psychological adjustment in children with CP is under researched with little population-based or longitudinal data, but there is sufficient evidence to suggest that children with CP are at increased risk for psychological problems. The types of difficulties they experience include emotional, hyperactivity and peer problems with conduct disorder being more prevalent in mildly affected children. The origins of psychological problems in this group are complex but include ‘disease’ and ‘psychosocial’ factors related to having a brain-based disability in the family, as well as other factors that influence adjustment in all children. There are no intervention studies in children with CP aimed at preventing psychological problems or promoting mental wellbeing. However, evidence from other work suggests it is possible to work with the child and family to develop skills, manage symptoms, and build confidence and resilience. Acting as early as possible has been found to be beneficial for bonding, child development and reducing parental anxiety.

An empirical study of green supply chain management practices amongst UK manufacturers

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent and nature of greening the supply chain (SC) in the UK manufacturing sector; and the factors that influence the breadth and depth of this activity.

Design/methodology/approach: Based on the findings from a sample of manufacturing organisations drawn from the membership of The Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply. Data are collected using a questionnaire, piloted and pre-tested before distribution with responses from 60 manufacturing companies.

Findings: On average manufacturers perceive the greatest pressure to improve environmental performance through legislation and internal drivers (IDs). The least influential pressures are related to societal drivers and SC pressures from individual customers. Green supply chain management (GSCM) practices amongst this “average” group of UK manufacturing organisations are focusing on internal, higher risk, descriptive activities, rather than proactive, external engagement processes. Environmental attitude (EA) is a key predictor of GSCM activity and those organisations that have a progressive attitude are also operationally very active. EA shows some relationship to legislative drivers but other factors are also influential. Operational activity may also be moderated by organisational contingencies such as risk, size, and nationality.

Research limitations/implications: The main limitation to this paper is the relatively small manufacturing sample.

Practical implications: This paper presents a series of constructs that identify GSCM operational activities companies to benchmark themselves against. It suggests which factors are driving these operational changes and how industry contingencies may be influential.

Originality/value: This paper explores what is driving environmental behaviour amongst an “average” sample of manufacturers, what specific management practices take place and the relationships between them.

Keywords: Manufacturing industries, Environmental management, Supply chain management, Sustainable development, United Kingdom
Paper type: Research paper

The Impact of Disrespect on Prisoners’ Aggression: Outcomes of Experimentally Inducing Violence Supportive Cognitions

Self-report research suggests that much violence is triggered by perceived insults and disrespect. This may be particularly true in the context of a prison or another environment of acute deprivation, whereby individuals have little other recourse to means of reputation enhancement. This paper presents the findings of two studies conducted with prisoner volunteers inside a Category C (minimum security) prison in England. In the first study, the authors randomly assigned a sample of 89 prisoners to one of two conditions: the experimental group were asked to discuss times they have been disrespected by authority figures inside and outside the prison; the control group were asked more neutral questions. Both groups then completed several measures of cognitive beliefs, distortions, and hostile attribution biases. None of the measures differed across the two groups except the measure of excuse and justification acceptance. Controlling for other factors, the experimental group endorsed these rationalisations at a significantly higher rate than the control group. This finding suggests that raising the salience of disrespect - reminding prisoners of times they have been made to feel unworthy of consideration - may raise the risk that prisoners will engage in violence by providing prisoners with justifications or excuses for actions they might not otherwise endorse. These findings received some additional validation in the second study, a qualitative analysis of offender accounts of violence and aggression within the prison. Implications for reducing violence within prisons are discussed.

Accumulation of knowledge and accumulation of capital in early ‘theories’ of growth and development

This paper argues that prior to Adam Smith economic progress was largely conceived as being based on the accumulation of knowledge. The development by Turgot and Smith of a concept of capital that subsumed other factors contributing to development led their followers to focus on capital to the neglect of the independent role of knowledge. The paper demonstrates that this paradigmatic shift was identified and challenged by Bentham, Hodgskin and Rae who argued for the independent role of innovation but without lasting impact. © The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved.

Differential physico-chemical tolerances of amphipod species revealed by field transplantations

Physico-chemical regimes of river systems are major determinants of the distributions and relative abundances of macroinvertebrate taxa. Other factors, however, such as biotic interactions, may co-vary with changes in physico-chemistry and concomitant changes in community composition. Thus, direct cause and effect relationships may not always be established from field surveys. Equally, however, laboratory studies may suffer from lack of realism in extrapolation to the field. Here, we use balanced field transplantation experiments to elucidate the role of physico-chemical regime in determining the generally mutually exclusive distributions of two amphipod taxa, Gammarus (two species) and Crangonyx pseudogracilis. Within two river systems in Ireland, the former species dominate stretches of well oxygenated, high-quality water, whereas the latter dominates stretches of poorly oxygenated, low-quality water. G. pulex and G. duebeni celticus did not survive in bioassay tubes in areas dominated by C. pseudogracilis, which itself survived in tubes in such areas. However, both C. pseudogracilis and Gammarus spp. survived equally well in tubes in areas dominated by Gammarus spp. Physicochemical regime thus limits the movement of Gammarus spp. into C. pseudogracilis areas, but some other factor excludes C. pseudogracilis from Gammarus spp. areas. Since previous laboratory experiments showed high predation rates of Gammarus spp. on C. pseudogracilis, we propose that predation by the former causes exclusion of the latter. Hence, presumed effects of physico-chemical regime on macroinvertebrate presence/abundance may often require experimental field testing and appreciation of alternative explanations.

Shore exposure affects mussel population structure and mediates the effect of epibiotic algae on mussel survival in SW Ireland

On rocky shores, the relative importance of abiotic and biotic processes that regulate community structure are thought to vary with levels of shore exposure. This can lead to characteristic features found on sheltered and exposed shores. This study identified differences in the population structure of mussels on exposed and sheltered rocky shores on Atlantic coasts of south-west Ireland. Direct interactions between epibiotic algae and their host mussels were also examined to test if potential effects varied with shore exposure. Mussel beds on sheltered shores were less dense and comprised larger mussels with greater rates of individual survival and growth than those on exposed shores. The results of a field experiment showed that algal epibionts had a negative effect on mussel survival on sheltered shores but not on exposed shores. Surprisingly, the presence of algal epibionts had no effect on mussel growth on either shore type. These findings contrast with those of previous studies. The effects of shore exposure and algal epibionts on Mussels may be species-specific and may interact with other factors across different regions. This study shows that predictions of effects of exposure on mussel populations and their epibionts should only be based on specific experimental evidence and cannot be generalised across regions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.