Parametric and non-parametric estimates of willingness to pay for forest recreation in Northern Ireland: A discrete choice contingent valuation study with follow-ups

In this study we show that forest areas contribute significantly to the estimated benefits from om outdoor recreation in Northern Ireland. Secondly we provide empirical evidence of the gains in the statistical efficiency of both benefit and parameter estimates obtained by analysing follow-up responses with Double Bounded interval data analysis. As these gains are considerable, it is clearly worth considering this method in CVM survey design even when moderately large sample sizes are used. Finally we demonstrate that estimates of means and medians of WTP distributions for access to forest recreation show plausible magnitude, are consistent with previous UK studies, and converge across parametric and non-parametic methods of estimation.

Adjusting HIV Prevalence Estimates for Non-participation: an Application to Demographic Surveillance

Introduction: HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa.

Methods: We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status.

Results: For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who participated in testing, and 18% estimated with imputation. We provide new confidence intervals that correct for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is unknown and requires estimation.

Conclusions: We confirm the feasibility and value of adopting selection models to account for missing data in population-based HIV surveys and surveillance systems. Elements of survey design, such as interviewer identity, present the opportunity to adopt this approach in routine applications. Where non-participation is high, true confidence intervals are much wider than those generated by standard approaches to dealing with missing data suggest.

The VLT-FLAMES survey of massive stars: stellar parameters and rotational velocities in NGC 3293, NGC 4755 and NGC 6611

An analysis is presented of VLT-FLAMES spectroscopy for three Galactic clusters, NGC3293, NGC4755 and NGC6611. Non-LTE model atmosphere calculations have been used to estimate effective temperatures (from either the helium spectrum or the silicon ionization equilibrium) and gravities (from the hydrogen spectrum). Projected rotational velocities have been deduced from the helium spectrum (for fast and moderate rotators) or the metal line spectrum (for slow rotators). The origin of the low gravity estimates for apparently near main sequence objects is discussed and is related to the stellar rotational velocity. The atmospheric parameters have been used to estimate cluster distances (which are generally in good agreement with previous determinations) and these have been used to estimate stellar luminosities and evolutionary masses. The observed Hertzsprung-Russell diagrams are compared with theoretical predictions and some discrepancies including differences in the main sequence luminosities are discussed. Cluster ages have been deduced and evidence for non-coeval star formation is found for all three of the clusters. Projected rotational velocities for targets in the older clusters, NGC3293 and NGC4755, have been found to be systematically larger than those for the field, confirming recent results in other similar age clusters. The distribution of projected rotational velocities are consistent with a Gaussian distribution of intrinsic rotational velocities. For the relatively unevolved targets in the older clusters, NGC3293 and NGC4755, the peak of the velocity distribution would be 250 km s(-1) with a full-width-half-maximum of approximately 180 km s(-1). For NGC6611, the sample size is relatively small but implies a lower mean rotational velocity. This may be evidence for the spin-down effect due to angular momentum loss through stellar winds, although our results are consistent with those found for very young high mass stars. For all three clusters we deduce present day mass functions with Gamma-values in the range of -1.5 to -1.8, which are similar to other young stellar clusters in the Milky Way.

Modelling attribute non-attendance in choice experiments for rural landscape valuation

Non-market effects of agriculture are often estimated using discrete choice models from stated preference surveys. In this context we propose two ways of modelling attribute non-attendance. The first involves constraining coefficients to zero in a latent class framework, whereas the second is based on stochastic attribute selection and grounded in Bayesian estimation. Their implications are explored in the context of a stated preference survey designed to value landscapes in Ireland. Taking account of attribute non-attendance with these data improves fit and tends to involve two attributes one of which is likely to be cost, thereby leading to substantive changes in derived welfare estimates.

Using interviewer random effects to remove selection bias from HIV prevalence estimates

Background: Selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates occurs if non-participation in testing is correlated with HIV status. Longitudinal data suggests that individuals who know or suspect they are HIV positive are less likely to participate in testing in HIV surveys, in which case methods to correct for missing data which are based on imputation and observed characteristics will produce biased results. Methods: The identity of the HIV survey interviewer is typically associated with HIV testing participation, but is unlikely to be correlated with HIV status. Interviewer identity can thus be used as a selection variable allowing estimation of Heckman-type selection models. These models produce asymptotically unbiased HIV prevalence estimates, even when non-participation is correlated with unobserved characteristics, such as knowledge of HIV status. We introduce a new random effects method to these selection models which overcomes non-convergence caused by collinearity, small sample bias, and incorrect inference in existing approaches. Our method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and allows the construction of bootstrapped standard errors which adjust for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is uncertain and needs to be estimated. Results: Using nationally representative data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we illustrate our approach with new point estimates and confidence intervals (CI) for HIV prevalence among men in Ghana (2003) and Zambia (2007). In Ghana, we find little evidence of selection bias as our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 1.4% (95% CI 1.2% – 1.6%), compared to 1.6% among those with a valid HIV test. In Zambia, our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 16.3% (95% CI 11.0% - 18.4%), compared to 12.1% among those with a valid HIV test. Therefore, those who decline to test in Zambia are found to be more likely to be HIV positive. Conclusions: Our approach corrects for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates, is possible to implement even when HIV prevalence or non-participation is very high or very low, and provides a practical solution to account for both sampling and parameter uncertainty in the estimation of confidence intervals. The wide confidence intervals estimated in an example with high HIV prevalence indicate that it is difficult to correct statistically for the bias that may occur when a large proportion of people refuse to test.

The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) inChina and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’sEPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply andcapital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronicrespiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost ofthe five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD).For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that thecosts are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory,and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys foraddressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial

Estimating biomass, fishing mortality, and "total allowable discards" for surveyed non-target fish

Demersal fisheries targeting a few high-value species often catch and discard other "non-target" species. It is difficult to quantify the impact of this incidental mortality when population biomass of a non-target species is unknown. We calculate biomass for 14 demersal fish species in ICES Area VIIg (Celtic Sea) by applying species-and length-based catchability corrections to catch records from the Irish Groundfish Survey (IGFS). We then combine these biomass estimates with records of commercial discards (and landings for marketable non-target species) to calculate annual harvesting rates (HR) for each study species. Uncertainty is incorporated into estimates of both biomass andHR. Our survey-based HR estimates for cod and whiting compared well with HR-converted fishing mortality (F) estimates from analytical assessments for these two stocks. Of the non-target species tested, red gurnard (Chelidonichthys cuculus) recorded some annual HRs greater than those for cod or whiting; challenging "Pope's postulate" that F on non-target stocks in an assemblage will not exceed that on target stocks. We relate HR for each species to two corresponding maximum sustainable yield (MSY) reference levels; six non-target species (including three ray species) show annual HRs >= HRMSY. This result suggests that it may not be possible to conserve vulnerable non-target species when F is coupled to that of target species. Based on biomass, HR, and HRMSY, we estimate "total allowable catch" for each non-target species.

An invasive-native mammalian species replacement process captured by camera trap survey random encounter models

Camera traps are used to estimate densities or abundances using capture-recapture and, more recently, random encounter models (REMs). We deploy REMs to describe an invasive-native species replacement process, and to demonstrate their wider application beyond abundance estimation. The Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus is a high priority endemic of conservation concern. It is threatened by an expanding population of non-native, European hares L. europaeus, an invasive species of global importance. Camera traps were deployed in thirteen 1 km squares, wherein the ratio of invader to native densities were corroborated by night-driven line transect distance sampling throughout the study area of 1652 km2. Spatial patterns of invasive and native densities between the invader’s core and peripheral ranges, and native allopatry, were comparable between methods. Native densities in the peripheral range were comparable to those in native allopatry using REM, or marginally depressed using Distance Sampling. Numbers of the invader were substantially higher than the native in the core range, irrespective of method, with a 5:1 invader-to-native ratio indicating species replacement. We also describe a post hoc optimization protocol for REM which will inform subsequent (re-)surveys, allowing survey effort (camera hours) to be reduced by up to 57% without compromising the width of confidence intervals associated with density estimates. This approach will form the basis of a more cost-effective means of surveillance and monitoring for both the endemic and invasive species. The European hare undoubtedly represents a significant threat to the endemic Irish hare.

The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey: XIX. B-type supergiants: Atmospheric parameters and nitrogen abundances to investigate the role of binarity and the width of the main sequence

Context: Model atmosphere analyses have been previously undertaken for both Galactic and extragalactic B-type supergiants. By contrast, little attention has been given to a comparison of the properties of single supergiants and those that are members of multiple systems. 

Aims: Atmospheric parameters and nitrogen abundances have been estimated for all the B-type supergiants identified in the VLT-FLAMES Tarantula survey. These include both single targets and binary candidates. The results have been analysed to investigate the role of binarity in the evolutionary history of supergiants. 

Methods: tlusty non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) model atmosphere calculations have been used to determine atmospheric parameters and nitrogen abundances for 34 single and 18 binary supergiants. Effective temperatures were deduced using the silicon balance technique, complemented by the helium ionisation in the hotter spectra. Surface gravities were estimated using Balmer line profiles and microturbulent velocities deduced using the silicon spectrum. Nitrogen abundances or upper limits were estimated from the Nii spectrum. The effects of a flux contribution from an unseen secondary were considered for the binary sample. Results. We present the first systematic study of the incidence of binarity for a sample of B-type supergiants across the theoretical terminal age main sequence (TAMS). To account for the distribution of effective temperatures of the B-type supergiants it may be necessary to extend the TAMS to lower temperatures. This is also consistent with the derived distribution of mass discrepancies, projected rotational velocities and nitrogen abundances, provided that stars cooler than this temperature are post-red supergiant objects. For all the supergiants in the Tarantula and in a previous FLAMES survey, the majority have small projected rotational velocities. The distribution peaks at about 50 km s^-1 with 65% in the range 30 km s^-1 ≤ ν_e sin i ≤ 60 km s^-1. About ten per cent have larger ve sin i (≥100 km s^-1), but surprisingly these show little or no nitrogen enhancement. All the cooler supergiants have low projected rotational velocities of ≤70 km s^-1 and high nitrogen abundance estimates, implying that either bi-stability braking or evolution on a blue loop may be important. Additionally, there is a lack of cooler binaries, possibly reflecting the small sample sizes. Single-star evolutionary models, which include rotation, can account for all of the nitrogen enhancement in both the single and binary samples. The detailed distribution of nitrogen abundances in the single and binary samples may be different, possibly reflecting differences in their evolutionary history. 

Conclusions: The first comparative study of single and binary B-type supergiants has revealed that the main sequence may be significantly wider than previously assumed, extending to T_eff = 20 000 K. Some marginal differences in single and binary atmospheric parameters and abundances have been identified, possibly implying non-standard evolution for some of the sample. This sample as a whole has implications for several aspects of our understanding of the evolutionary status of blue supergiants.

The VLT-FLAMES tarantula survey:X. Evidence for a bimodal distribution of rotational velocities for the single early B-type stars

Aims. Projected rotational velocities (ve sin i) have been estimated for 334 targets in the VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey that do not manifest significant radial velocity variations and are not supergiants. They have spectral types from approximately O9.5 to B3. The estimates have been analysed to infer the underlying rotational velocity distribution, which is critical for understanding the evolution of massive stars. Methods. Projected rotational velocities were deduced from the Fourier transforms of spectral lines, with upper limits also being obtained from profile fitting. For the narrower lined stars, metal and non-diffuse helium lines were adopted, and for the broader lined stars, both non-diffuse and diffuse helium lines; the estimates obtained using the different sets of lines are in good agreement. The uncertainty in the mean estimates is typically 4% for most targets. The iterative deconvolution procedure of Lucy has been used to deduce the probability density distribution of the rotational velocities. Results. Projected rotational velocities range up to approximately 450 kms-1 and show a bi-modal structure. This is also present in the inferred rotational velocity distribution with 25% of the sample having 0 <ve <100 km s^-1 and the high velocity component having v_e ∼ 250 km s^-1. There is no evidence from the spatial and radial velocity distributions of the two components that they represent either field and cluster populations or different episodes of star formation. Be-type stars have also been identified. Conclusions. The bi-modal rotational velocity distribution in our sample resembles that found for late-B and early-A type stars.While magnetic braking appears to be a possible mechanism for producing the low-velocity component, we can not rule out alternative explanations. © ESO 2013.