The Council and the Court: Shared Objectives or Opposing Views on the Crime of Aggression

This paper argues that an important part of ensuring the jurisdictional basis of the crime of aggression is to secure a partnership between the UN Security Council and the ICC. Such a partnership should be conducive towards the reality of holding to account individuals that undertake an illegal use of force. This Paper puts forward guiding principles for a model that would benefit a constructive institutional relationship between the Council and the Court. It is through the application of these five guiding principles that the inclusion of the crime of aggression in the Rome Statute can translate into a constructive relationship between the International Criminal Court and the Security Council for the betterment of international peace and security as well as international justice. I maintain that it would be damaging to both the legitimacy and operational effectiveness of the Security Council and the ICC and detrimental to the overall institutional relationship if the final outcome proves unfavourable to international action against the crime of aggression and nothing more than dead letter law. Essentially the key to a viable cooperation regime between the Court and the Council will hinge on shared objectives regarding the crime of aggression rather than opposing views, namely combating impunity by holding individuals accountable for the illegal use of force.

Modelo de predicción electoral: el caso de la elección municipal 2015 de León de los Aldama, Guanajuato

El artículo analiza los cambios político electorales en León, Guanajuato, a partir de cómo se fue configurando el desplazamiento del Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) por el Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) en este ayuntamiento en el año 1988, hasta el cambio de correlación de fuerzas en el año 2012. Ello da pauta para analizar los escenarios que podrían caracterizar las próximas elecciones de este año. Con este objetivo se propone un modelo estadístico para dicho estudio: el modelo de regresión Dirichlet, el cual permite considerar la naturaleza de los datos electorales.
The article analyzes the electoral changes in León, Guanajuato, based on how it was setting the displacement of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) by the National Action Party (PAN) in this council in 1988, until the change of correlation forces in 2012, which gives guidelines to analyze the scenarios that could characterize the upcoming elections this year. With this aim the authors proposed a statistical model for the study: the Dirichlet regression model, which allows to consider the nature of electoral data.