PROGNOSTIC FACTORS PREDICTING FUNCTIONAL OUTCOME AT FOUR MONTHS FOLLOWING ACUTE ANKLE SPRAIN

PROGNOSTIC FACTORS PREDICTING FUNCTIONAL OUTCOME AT FOUR MONTHS FOLLOWING ACUTE ANKLE SPRAINBleakley C.M.1, O'Connor S.R.1, Tully M.A.2, Rocke L.G.3, MacAuley D.C.1, Bradbury I.4, Keegan S.4, McDonough S.M.11University of Ulster, Health & Rehabilitation Sciences Research Institute, Newtownabbey, United Kingdom, 2Queen's University, UKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health (NI), Belfast, United Kingdom, 3Royal Victoria Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Belfast, United Kingdom, 4Frontier Science (Scotland), Kincraig, Inverness-shire, United KingdomPurpose: To identify clinically relevant factors assessed following acute ankle sprain that predict functional recovery at four months post-injury.Relevance: Ankle sprains are one of the most common musculoskeletal injuries with an estimated 5000 new cases occurring each day in the United Kingdom. In the acute phase, ankle sprains may be associated with pain and loss of function. In the longer-term there is a risk of residual problems including chronic pain or reinjury. Few studies have sought to examine factors associated with a poor long-term prognosis.Participants: 101 patients (Age: Mean (SD) 25.9 (7.9) years; Body Mass Index (BMI): 25.3 (3.5) kg/m2) with an acute grade 1 or 2 ankle sprain attending an accident and emergency department or sports injury clinic. Exclusion criteria included complete (grade 3) rupture of the ankle ligament complex, bony ankle injury or multiple injuries.Methods: Participants were allocated as part of a randomised controlled trial to an accelerated intervention incorporating intermittent ice and early therapeutic exercise or a standard protection, rest, ice, compression, and elevation intervention for one week. Treatment was then standardised in both groups and consisted of ankle rehabilitation exercises focusing on muscle strengthening, neuromuscular training, and sports specific functional exercises for a period of approximately four to six weeks. On initial assessment age, gender, mechanism of injury, presence of an audible pop or snap and the presence of contact during the injury were recorded. The following factors were also recorded at baseline and at one and four weeks post-injury: weight-bearing dorsi-flexion test, lateral hop test, presence of medial pain on palpation and a positive impingement sign. Functional status was assessed using the Karlsson score at baseline, at week four and at four months. Reinjury rates were recorded throughout the intervention phase and at four months.Analysis: A mixed between-within subjects analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the effect of each factor on functional status at week four and at four months. Significance was set at a Bonferroni adjusted level of 0.0125 (0.05/4).Results: Eighty-five participants (84%) were available at final follow-up assessment. Pain on weight-bearing dorsi-flexion and lateral hop tests at week four were both associated with a lower functional score at four months post-injury (P = 0.011 and P = 0.001). No other significant interactions were observed at any other timepoint (baseline or week one). There were only two reinjuries within the four month follow-up period with a further two reported at approximately six months post-injury. We were therefore unable to determine whether any factors were associated with an increased risk of reinjury.Conclusions: Potential prognostic factors on initial or early examination after acute ankle sprain did not help predict functional recovery at four months post-injury. However, pain on weight-bearing dorsi-flexion and lateral hop tests observed at four weeks were associated with a slower rate of recovery.Implications: Some clinical tests may help identify patients at risk of poor functional recovery after acute ankle sprain. However, further work is required to examine factors which may be predictive on initial assessment.Key-words: 1. Prognostic factors 2. Recovery 3. Ankle sprainFunding acknowledgements: Physiotherapy Research Foundation, Chartered Society of Physiotherapy, Strategic Priority Fund; Department of Employment and Learning, Northern Ireland.Ethics approval: Office for Research Ethics Committee (UK).

Towards automated Android app collusion detection

Android OS supports multiple communication methods between apps. This opens the possibility to carry out threats in a collaborative fashion, c.f. the Soundcomber example from 2011. In this paper we provide a concise definition of collusion and report on a number of automated detection approaches, developed in co-operation with Intel Security.

Ion-acoustic envelope modes in a degenerate relativistic electron-ion plasma

A self-consistent relativistic two-fluid model is proposed for one-dimensional electron-ion plasma dynamics. A multiple scales perturbation technique is employed, leading to an evolution equation for the wave envelope, in the form of a nonlinear Schrödinger type equation (NLSE). The inclusion of relativistic effects is shown to introduce density-dependent factors, not present in the non-relativistic case - in the conditions for modulational instability. The role of relativistic effects on the linear dispersion laws and on envelope soliton solutions of the NLSE is discussed.

Complexity of risk: Mixed methods approach to understanding youth risk and insecurity in post-conflict settings

In settings of intergroup conflict, identifying contextually-relevant risk factors for youth development in an important task. In Vukovar, Croatia, a city devastated during the war in former Yugoslavia, ethno-political tensions remain. The current study utilized a mixed method approach to identify two salient community-level risk factors (ethnic tension and general antisocial behavior) and related emotional insecurity responses (ethnic and non-ethnic insecurity) among youth in Vukovar. In Study 1, focus group discussions (N=66) with mother, fathers, and adolescents 11 to 15-years-old were analyzed using the Constant Comparative Method, revealing two types of risk and insecurity responses. In Study 2, youth (N=227, 58% male, M=15.88 SD=1.12 years old) responded to quantitative scales developed from the focus groups; discriminate validity was demonstrated and path analyses established predictive validity between each type of risk and insecurity. First, community ethnic tension (i.e., threats related to war/ethnic identity) significantly predicted ethnic insecurity for all youth (β=.41, p<.001). Second, experience with community antisocial behavior (i.e., general crime found in any context) predicted non-ethnic community insecurity for girls (β=.32, p<.05), but not for boys. These findings are the first to show multiple forms of emotional insecurity at the community level; implications for future research are discussed.

Aerodynamic optimization using Adjoint methods and parametric CAD models

This paper describes an implementation of a method capable of integrating parametric, feature based, CAD models based on commercial software (CATIA) with the SU2 software framework. To exploit the adjoint based methods for aerodynamic optimisation within the SU2, a formulation to obtain geometric sensitivities directly from the commercial CAD parameterisation is introduced, enabling the calculation of gradients with respect to CAD based design variables. To assess the accuracy and efficiency of the alternative approach, two aerodynamic optimisation problems are investigated: an inviscid, 3D, problem with multiple constraints, and a 2D high-lift aerofoil, viscous problem without any constraints. Initial results show the new parameterisation obtaining reliable optimums, with similar levels of performance of the software native parameterisations. In the final paper, details of computing CAD sensitivities will be provided, including accuracy as well as linking geometric sensitivities to aerodynamic objective functions and constraints; the impact in the robustness of the overall method will be assessed and alternative parameterisations will be included.

An exploration of men’s experiences of undergoing active surveillance for favourable-risk prostate cancer: A mixed methods study protocol

Background
Prostate cancer is one of the most common male cancers worldwide. Active Surveillance (AS) has been developed to allow men with lower risk disease to postpone or avoid the adverse side effects associated with curative treatments until the disease progresses. Despite the medical benefits of AS, it is reported that living with untreated cancer can create a significant emotional burden for patients.

Methods/design
The aim of this study is to gain insight into the experiences of men eligible to undergo AS for favourable-risk PCa.

This study has a mixed-methods sequential explanatory design consisting of two phases: quantitative followed by qualitative. Phase 1 has a multiple point, prospective, longitudinal exploratory design. Ninety men diagnosed with favourable-risk prostate cancer will be assessed immediately post-diagnosis (baseline) and followed over a period of 12 months, in intervals of 3 month. Ninety age-matched men with no cancer diagnosis will also be recruited using peer nomination and followed up in the same 3 month intervals. Following completion of Phase 1, 10–15 AS participants who have reported both the best and worst psychological functioning will be invited to participate in semi-structured qualitative interviews. Phase 2 will facilitate further exploration of the quantitative results and obtain a richer understanding of participants’ personal interpretations of their illness and psychological wellbeing.

Discussion
To our knowledge, this is the first study to utilise early baseline measures; include a healthy comparison group; calculate sample size through power calculations; and use a mixed methods approach to gain a deeper more holistic insight into the experiences of men diagnosed with favourable-risk prostate cancer.

Application of self-quenched JH consensus primers for real-time quantitative PCR of IGH gene to minimal residual disease evaluation in multiple myeloma.

Monitoring multiple myeloma patients for relapse requires sensitive methods to measure minimal residual disease and to establish a more precise prognosis. The present study aimed to standardize a real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for the IgH gene with a JH consensus self-quenched fluorescence reverse primer and a VDJH or DJH allele-specific sense primer (self-quenched PCR). This method was compared with allele-specific real-time quantitative PCR test for the IgH gene using a TaqMan probe and a JH consensus primer (TaqMan PCR). We studied nine multiple myeloma patients from the Spanish group treated with the MM2000 therapeutic protocol. Self-quenched PCR demonstrated sensitivity of >or=10(-4) or 16 genomes in most cases, efficiency was 1.71 to 2.14, and intra-assay and interassay reproducibilities were 1.18 and 0.75%, respectively. Sensitivity, efficiency, and residual disease detection were similar with both PCR methods. TaqMan PCR failed in one case because of a mutation in the JH primer binding site, and self-quenched PCR worked well in this case. In conclusion, self-quenched PCR is a sensitive and reproducible method for quantifying residual disease in multiple myeloma patients; it yields similar results to TaqMan PCR and may be more effective than the latter when somatic mutations are present in the JH intronic primer binding site.

Minimal residual disease monitoring in multiple myeloma: a comparison between allelic-specific oligonucleotide real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction and flow cytometry.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Minimal residual disease (MRD) studies are useful in multiple myeloma (MM). However, the definition of the best technique and clinical utility are still unresolved issues. The aim of this study was to analyze and compare the clinical utility of MRD studies in MM with two different techniques: allelic-specific oligonucleotide real-time quantitative PCR (ASO-RQ-PCR), and flow cytometry (FCM). DESIGN AND METHODS: Bone marrow samples from 32 MM patients who had achieved complete response after transplantation were evaluated by ASO-RQ-PCR, using TaqMan technology, and multiparametric FCM. RESULTS: ASO-RQ-PCR was only applicable in 75% of patients for a variety of technical reasons, while FCM was applicable in up to 90%. Therefore, simultaneous PCR/FCM analysis was possible in only 24 patients. The number of residual tumor cells identified by both techniques was very similar (mean=0.29%, range=0.001-1.61%, correlation coefficient=0.861). However, RQ-PCR was able to detect residual myelomatous cells in 17 patients while FCM only did so in 11; thus, 6 cases were FCM negative but PCR positive, all of them displaying a very low number of clonal cells (median=0.014%, range=0.001-0.11). Using an MRD threshold of 0.01% (10(-4)) two risk groups with significantly different progression-free survival could be identified by either PCR (34 vs. 15m, p=0.04) or FCM (27 vs. 10m, p=0.05). INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS: Although MRD evaluation by ASO-RQ-PCR is slightly more sensitive and specific than FCM, it is applicable in a lower proportion of MM patients and is more time-consuming, while both techniques provide similar prognostic information.

Molecular characteristics and gene segment usage in IGH gene rearrangements in multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Analysis of IgH rearrangements in B-cell malignancies has provided clinical researchers with a wide range of information during the last few years. However, only a few studies have contributed to the characterization of these features in multiple myeloma (MM), and they have been focused on the analysis of the expressed IgH allele only. Comparison between the expressed and the non-functional IgH alleles allows further characterizion of the selection processes to which pre-myeloma cells are submitted. DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed a cohort of 84 untreated MM patients in order to characterize their functional VDJH and non-functional DJH rearrangements. The pattern of mutations and gene segment usage for both types of rearrangements was analyzed by polymerase chain reaction and sequencing. RESULTS: VH3 and VH1 family members were over- and under-represented, respectively. VH3-30 and VH3-15 segments were the most frequently used, whereas VH4-34 was found only in non-functional or heavily mutated VDJH rearrangements. DH2 and DH3 family members were over-represented in both VDJH and DJH repertoires, while the DH1 family was under-represented only in the productive VDJH rearrangements. Finally, DH3-22 and DH2-21 gene segments were found to be over-represented in the functional repertoire while segments commonly used by less mature B-cell malignancies, such as DH6-19 or DH3-3, were under-represented. INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS: Data reported here help to identify the clonogenic MM cell as a post-germinal center B cell that has undergone selection processes during the germinal center reaction.

Heteroduplex PCR analysis of rearranged immunoglobulin genes for clonality assessment in multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Molecular analysis by PCR of monoclonally rearranged immunoglobulin (Ig) genes can be used for diagnosis in B-cell lymphoproliferative disorders (LPD), as well as for monitoring minimal residual disease (MRD) after treatment. This technique has the risk of false-positive results due to the "background" amplification of similar rearrangements derived from polyclonal B-cells. This problem can be resolved in advance by additional analyses that discern between polyclonal and monoclonal PCR products, such as the heteroduplex analysis. A second problem is that PCR frequently fails to amplify the junction regions, mainly due to somatic mutations frequently present in mature (post-follicular) B-cell lymphoproliferations. The use of additional targets (e.g. Ig light chain genes) can avoid this problem. DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied the specificity of heteroduplex PCR analysis of several Ig junction regions to detect monoclonal products in samples from 84 MM patients and 24 patients with B cell polyclonal disorders. RESULTS: Using two distinct VH consensus primers (FR3 and FR2) in combination with one JH primer, 79% of the MM displayed monoclonal products. The percentage of positive cases was increased by amplification of the Vlamda-Jlamda junction regions or kappa(de) rearrangements, using two or five pairs of consensus primers, respectively. After including these targets in the heteroduplex PCR analysis, 93% of MM cases displayed monoclonal products. None of the polyclonal samples analyzed resulted in monoclonal products. Dilution experiments showed that monoclonal rearrangements could be detected with a sensitivity of at least 10(-2) in a background with >30% polyclonal B-cells, the sensitivity increasing up to 10(-3) when the polyclonal background was

Joint Analysis of Multiple Algorithms and Performance Measures

There has been an increasing interest in the development of new methods using Pareto optimality to deal with multi-objective criteria (for example, accuracy and time complexity). Once one has developed an approach to a problem of interest, the problem is then how to compare it with the state of art. In machine learning, algorithms are typically evaluated by comparing their performance on different data sets by means of statistical tests. Standard tests used for this purpose are able to consider jointly neither performance measures nor multiple competitors at once. The aim of this paper is to resolve these issues by developing statistical procedures that are able to account for multiple competing measures at the same time and to compare multiple algorithms altogether. In particular, we develop two tests: a frequentist procedure based on the generalized likelihood-ratio test and a Bayesian procedure based on a multinomial-Dirichlet conjugate model. We further extend them by discovering conditional independences among measures to reduce the number of parameters of such models, as usually the number of studied cases is very reduced in such comparisons. Data from a comparison among general purpose classifiers is used to show a practical application of our tests.

Multiple training interventions significantly improve reproducibility of PET/CT-based lung cancer radiotherapy target volume delineation using an IAEA study protocol

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To assess the impact of a standardized delineation protocol and training interventions on PET/CT-based target volume delineation (TVD) in NSCLC in a multicenter setting.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Over a one-year period, 11 pairs, comprised each of a radiation oncologist and nuclear medicine physician with limited experience in PET/CT-based TVD for NSCLC from nine different countries took part in a training program through an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) study (NCT02247713). Teams delineated gross tumor volume of the primary tumor, during and after training interventions, according to a provided delineation protocol. In-house developed software recorded the performed delineations, to allow visual inspection of strategies and to assess delineation accuracy.

RESULTS: Following the first training, overall concordance indices for 3 repetitive cases increased from 0.57±0.07 to 0.66±0.07. The overall mean surface distance between observer and expert contours decreased from -0.40±0.03 cm to -0.01±0.33 cm. After further training overall concordance indices for another 3 repetitive cases further increased from 0.64±0.06 to 0.80±0.05 (p=0.01). Mean surface distances decreased from -0.34±0.16 cm to -0.05±0.20 cm (p=0.01).

CONCLUSION: Multiple training interventions improve PET/CT-based TVD delineation accuracy in NSCLC and reduces interobserver variation.

Prevalence and risk of Down syndrome in monozygotic and dizygotic multiple pregnancies in Europe: implications for prenatal screening

OBJECTIVE: To determine risk of Down syndrome (DS) in multiple relative to singleton pregnancies, and compare prenatal diagnosis rates and pregnancy outcome.

DESIGN: Population-based prevalence study based on EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries.

SETTING: Eight European countries.

POPULATION: 14.8 million births 1990-2009; 2.89% multiple births.

METHODS: DS cases included livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA). Zygosity is inferred from like/unlike sex for birth denominators, and from concordance for DS cases.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative risk (RR) of DS per fetus/baby from multiple versus singleton pregnancies and per pregnancy in monozygotic/dizygotic versus singleton pregnancies. Proportion of prenatally diagnosed and pregnancy outcome.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Poisson and logistic regression stratified for maternal age, country and time.

RESULTS: Overall, the adjusted (adj) RR of DS for fetus/babies from multiple versus singleton pregnancies was 0.58 (95% CI 0.53-0.62), similar for all maternal ages except for mothers over 44, for whom it was considerably lower. In 8.7% of twin pairs affected by DS, both co-twins were diagnosed with the condition. The adjRR of DS for monozygotic versus singleton pregnancies was 0.34 (95% CI 0.25-0.44) and for dizygotic versus singleton pregnancies 1.34 (95% CI 1.23-1.46). DS fetuses from multiple births were less likely to be prenatally diagnosed than singletons (adjOR 0.62 [95% CI 0.50-0.78]) and following diagnosis less likely to be TOPFA (adjOR 0.40 [95% CI 0.27-0.59]).

CONCLUSIONS: The risk of DS per fetus/baby is lower in multiple than singleton pregnancies. These estimates can be used for genetic counselling and prenatal screening.

Designing low-emission aero-engines using adjoint methods

The aim of this work is to investigate an efficient CAD based adjoint process chain for calculating sensitivities of the objective function to the CAD parameter in time scales acceptable for industrial design processes.