Models of open populations with space-limited recruitment: extension of theory and application to the barnacle Chthamalus montagui.

1. Barnacles are a good model organism for the study of open populations with space-limited recruitment. These models are applicable to other species with open supply of new individuals and resource limitation. The inclusion of space in models leads to reductions in recruitment with increasing density, and thus predictions of population size and stability are possible. 2. Despite the potential generality of a demographic theory for open space-limited populations, the models currently have a narrow empirical base. In this study, a model for an open population with space-limited recruitment was extended to include size-specific survival and promotions to any size class. The assumptions of this model were tested using data from a pan-European study of the barnacle Chthamalus montagui Southward. Two models were constructed: a 6-month model and a periodic annual model. Predicted equilibria and their stabilities were compared between shores. 3. Tests of model assumptions supported the extension of the theory to include promotions to any size class. Mortality was found to be size-specific and density independent. Studied populations were open, with recruitment proportional to free space. 4. The 6-month model showed a significant interaction between time and location for equilibrium free space. This may have been due to contrasts in the timing of structuring processes (i.e. creating and filling space) between Mediterranean and Atlantic systems. Integration of the 6-month models into a periodic annual model removed the differences in equilibrium-free space between locations. 5. Model predictions show a remarkable similarity between shores at a European scale. Populations were persistent and all solutions were stable. This reflects the apparent absence of density-dependent mortality and a high adult survivorship in C. montagui. As populations are intrinsically stable, observations of fluctuations in density are directly attributable to variations in the environmental forcing of recruitment or mortality

An analogue of the Magnus problem for associative algebras

We prove an analogue of Magnus theorem for associative algebras without unity over arbitrary fields. Namely, if an algebra is given by $n+k$ generators and $k$ relations and has an $n$-element system of generators, then this algebra is a free algebra of rank $n$.

British drugs policy: Problematizing the distinction between legal and illegal drugs and the definition of the ‘drugs problem’.

This article draws upon an extensive literature review of the social and medical sciences, official documents and various websites to critically re-evaluate the basis of British drugs policy. The article problematizes the rationale for criminalizing certain substances and questions the distinctions created between legal and illegal drugs; in so doing, the article argues that the definition of the `drugs problem' is the real problem. It shows that the debate on illegal drugs is filled less with factual truths and more with misinformation which creates public fear and provides a questionable basis for public policy. The article questions current thinking regarding the drugs/crime relationship and concludes by exploring some implications for policy and practice.

A biofuel strategy for Ireland with an emphasis on production of biomethane and minimization of land-take

Increasing energy consumption has exerted great pressure on natural resources; this has led to a move towards sustainable energy resources to improve security of supply and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the rush to the cure may have been made in haste. Biofuels in particular, have a bad press both in terms of competition with good agricultural land for food, and also in terms of the associated energy balance with the whole life cycle analysis of the biofuel system. The emphasis is now very much on sustainable biofuel production; biofuels from wastes and lignocellulosic material are now seen as good sustainable biofuels that affect significantly better greenhouse gas balances as compared with first generation biofuels. Ireland has a significant resource of organic waste that could be a potential source of energy through anaerobic digestion. Ireland has 8% of the cattle population of the EU with less than 1% of the human population; as a result 91% of agricultural land in Ireland is under grass. Residues such as slurries and slaughter waste together with energy crops such as grass have an excellent potential to produce biogas that may be upgraded to biomethane. This biomethane may be used as a natural gas substitute; bio-compressed natural gas may then be an avenue for a biofuel strategy. It is estimated that a maximum potential of 33% of natural gas may be substituted by 2020 with a practical obtainable level of 7.5% estimated. Together with biodiesel from residues the practical obtainable level of this strategy may effect greater than a 5% substitution by energy of transport. The residues considered in this strategy to produce biofuel (excluding grass) have the potential to save 93,000 ha of agricultural land (23% of Irish arable land) when compared to a rapeseed biodiesel strategy. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

‘The “English Disease” is to Look for a “Solution of the Irish Problem”’: British Constitutional Policy in Northern Ireland after Sunningdale 1974–1976

This article reconstructs British constitutional policy in Northern Ireland after power-sharing collapsed in May 1974. Over the following two years, the British government publicly emphasised that Northern Ireland would decide its own future, but ministers secretly considered a range of options including withdrawal, integration and Dominion status. These discussions have been fundamentally misunderstood by previous authors, and this article shows that Harold Wilson did not seriously advocate withdrawal nor was policy as inconsistent as argued elsewhere. An historical approach, drawing from recently released archival material, shows that consociationalists such as Brendan O'Leary and Michael Kerr have neglected the proper context of government policy because of their commitment to a particular form of government, failing to recognise the constraints under which ministers operated. The British government remained committed to an internal devolved settlement including both communities but was unable to impose one.

Condition Assessment and Preservation of Open-Air Rock Art Panels During Climate Change

Thousands of Neolithic and Bronze Age open-air rock art panels exist across the countryside in northern England. However, desecration, pollution, and other factors are threatening the survival of these iconic stone monuments. Evidence suggest that rates of panel deterioration may be increasing, although it is not clear whether this is due to local factors or wider environmental influences accelerated by environmental change. To examine this question, 18 rock art panels with varied art motifs were studied at two major panel locations at Lordenshaw and Weetwood Moor in Northumberland. A condition assessment
tool was used to first quantify the level of deterioration of each panel (called “staging”). Stage estimates then were compared statistically with 27 geochemical and physical descriptors of local environments, such as soil moisture, salinity, pH, lichen coverage, soil anions and cation levels, and panel orientation, slope, and standing height. In parallel, climate modelling was performed using UKCP09 to assess how projected climatic conditions (to 2099) might affect the environmental descriptors most correlated with elevated stone deterioration. Only two descriptors significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with increased stage: the standing height of the panel and the exchangeable cation content of the local soils, although moisture conditions also were potentially influential at some panels. Climate modelling predicts warming temperatures, more seasonally variable precipitation, and increased wind speeds, which hint stone deterioration could accelerate in the future due to increased physiochemical weathering. We recommend key panels be targeted for immediate management intervention, focusing on reducing wind exposures, improving site drainage, and potentially immobilizing soil salts.

External validation of the OHTS-EGPS model for predicting the 5-year risk of open-angle glaucoma in ocular hypertensives

To independently evaluate and compare the performance of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study-European Glaucoma Prevention Study (OHTS-EGPS) prediction equation for estimating the 5-year risk of open-angle glaucoma (OAG) in four cohorts of adults with ocular hypertension.

Generalized Langevin equation: An efficient approach to nonequilibrium molecular dynamics of open systems

The generalized Langevin equation (GLE) has been recently suggested to simulate the time evolution of classical solid and molecular systems when considering general nonequilibrium processes. In this approach, a part of the whole system (an open system), which interacts and exchanges energy with its dissipative environment, is studied. Because the GLE is derived by projecting out exactly the harmonic environment, the coupling to it is realistic, while the equations of motion are non-Markovian. Although the GLE formalism has already found promising applications, e. g., in nanotribology and as a powerful thermostat for equilibration in classical molecular dynamics simulations, efficient algorithms to solve the GLE for realistic memory kernels are highly nontrivial, especially if the memory kernels decay nonexponentially. This is due to the fact that one has to generate a colored noise and take account of the memory effects in a consistent manner. In this paper, we present a simple, yet efficient, algorithm for solving the GLE for practical memory kernels and we demonstrate its capability for the exactly solvable case of a harmonic oscillator coupled to a Debye bath.

The inclusion of open-ended questions on quantitative surveys of children: Dealing with unanticipated responses relating to child abuse and neglect

Web surveys have been shown to be a viable, and relatively inexpensive, method of data collection with children. For this reason, the Kids’ Life and Times (KLT) was developed as an annual online survey of 10 and 11 year old children. Each year, approximately 4,000 children participate in the survey. Throughout the six years that KLT has been running, a range of questions has been asked that are both policy-relevant and important to the lives of children. Given the method employed by the survey, no extremely sensitive questions that might cause the children distress are included. The majority of questions on KLT are closed yielding quantitative data that are analysed statistically; however, one regular open-ended question is included at the end of KLT each year so that the children can suggest questions that they think should be asked on the survey the following year. While most of the responses are innocuous, each year a small minority of children suggest questions on child abuse and neglect. This paper reports the responses to this question and reflects on how researchers can, and should, deal with this issue from both a methodological and an ethical perspective.

Prevalence of open-angle glaucoma among adults in the United States.

OBJECTIVE:

To estimate the prevalence and distribution of open-angle glaucoma (OAG) in the United States by age, race/ethnicity, and gender.

METHODS:

Summary prevalence estimates of OAG were prepared separately for black, Hispanic, and white subjects in 5-year age intervals starting at 40 years. The estimated rates were based on a meta-analysis of recent population-based studies in the United States, Australia, and Europe. These rates were applied to 2000 US census data and to projected US population figures for 2020 to estimate the number of the US population with OAG.

RESULTS:

The overall prevalence of OAG in the US population 40 years and older is estimated to be 1.86% (95% confidence interval, 1.75%-1.96%), with 1.57 million white and 398 000 black persons affected. After applying race-, age-, and gender-specific rates to the US population as determined in the 2000 US census, we estimated that OAG affects 2.22 million US citizens. Owing to the rapidly aging population, the number with OAG will increase by 50% to 3.36 million in 2020. Black subjects had almost 3 times the age-adjusted prevalence of glaucoma than white subjects.

CONCLUSIONS:

Open-angle glaucoma affects more than 2 million individuals in the United States. Owing to the rapid aging of the US population, this number will increase to more than 3 million by 2020.