Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Development of a multivariable online monitoring system for the thermoforming process

The thermoforming industry has been relatively slow to embrace modern measurement technologies. As a result researchers have struggled to develop accurate thermoforming simulations as some of the key aspects of the process remain poorly understood. For the first time, this work reports the development of a prototype multivariable instrumentation system for use in thermoforming. The system contains sensors for plug force, plug displacement, air pressure and temperature, plug temperature, and sheet temperature. Initially, it was developed to fit the tooling on a laboratory thermoforming machine, but later its performance was validated by installing it on a similar industrial tool. Throughout its development, providing access for the various sensors and their cabling was the most challenging task. In testing, all of the sensors performed well and the data collected has given a powerful insight into the operation of the process. In particular, it has shown that both the air and plug temperatures stabilize at more than 80C during the continuous thermoforming of amorphous polyethylene terephthalate (aPET) sheet at 110C. The work also highlighted significant differences in the timing and magnitude of the cavity pressures reached in the two thermoforming machines. The prototype system has considerable potential for further development.