This Time is Different: Causes and Consequences of British Banking Instability over the Long Run

This paper addresses three questions: (1) How severe were the episodes of banking instability
experienced by the UK over the past two centuries? (2) What have been the macroeconomic
indicators of UK banking instability? and (3) What have been the consequences of UK banking
instability for the cost of credit? Using a unique dataset of bank share prices from 1830 to 2010
to assess the stability of the UK banking system, we find that banking instability has grown more
severe since the 1970s. We also find that interest rates, inflation, lending growth, and equity
prices are consistent macroeconomic indicators of UK banking instability over the long run.
Furthermore, utilising a unique dataset of corporate-bond yields for the period 1860 to 2010, we
find that there is a significant long-run relationship between banking instability and the creditrisk
premium faced by businesses.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long -term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of javascript:void(0);a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability.

Biogeographical conditions, the transition to agriculture and long-run growth

We use new data on the timing of the transition to agriculture, developed by Putterman and Trainor (2006), to test the theory of Diamond (1997) and Olsson and Hibbs (2005) that an earlier transition is reflected in higher incomes today. Our results confirm the theory, even after controlling for institutional quality and other geographical factors. The date of transition is correlated with prehistoric biogeography (the availability of wild grasses and large domesticable animal species). The factors conducive to high per capita incomes today are good institutions, an early transition to agriculture, access to the sea and a low incidence of fatal malaria. Geographical influences have been at work in all of these proximate determinants of per capita income.

Geographical Influences on Long-Run Development

We show that geographical factors influence long-run per capita income directly, as well as indirectly, through the quality of institutions. The direct influence of geography on per capita incomes is robust to the inclusion of a sub-Saharan Africa dummy and other tests. We obtain our results by replacing the usual instrument (settlers’ mortality (SM)) by stronger instruments for institutional quality (latitude, the share of the country in the temperate climatic zone). We also provide evidence that SM suffers from endogeneity with respect to institutional quality for early colonies, because of its dependence on nineteenth-century mortality data.

A novel, long-acting agonist of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide suitable for once-daily administration in type 2 diabetes

Glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) is a gastrointestinal hormone with a potentially therapeutic role in type 2 diabetes. Rapid degradation by dipeptidylpeptidase IV has prompted the development of enzyme-resistant N-terminally modified analogs, but renal clearance still limits in vivo bioactivity. In this study, we report long-term antidiabetic effects of a novel, N-terminally protected, fatty acid-derivatized analog of GIP, N-AcGIP(LysPAL(37)), in obese diabetic (ob/ob) mice. Once-daily injections of N-AcGIP(LysPAL(37)) over a 14-day period significantly decreased plasma glucose, glycated hemoglobin, and improved glucose tolerance compared with ob/ob mice treated with saline or native GIP. Plasma insulin and pancreatic insulin content were significantly increased by N-AcGIP(LysPAL(37)). This was accompanied by a significant enhancement in the insulin response to glucose together with a notable improvement of insulin sensitivity. No evidence was found for GIP receptor desensitization and the metabolic effects of NAcGIP(LysPAL(37)) were independent of any change in feeding or body weight. Similar daily injections of native GIP did not affect any of the parameters measured. These data demonstrate the ability of once-daily injections of N-terminally modified, fatty acid-derivatized analogs of GIP, such as N-AcGIP(LysPAL(37)), to improve diabetes control and to offer a new class of agents for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.

Mineralogical characteristics and transformations during long-term operation of a zero-valent iron reactive barrier

Received for publication October 31, 2002. Design and operation of Fe0 permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) can be improved by understanding the long-term mineralogical transformations that occur within PRBs. Changes in mineral precipitates, cementation, and corrosion of Fe0 filings within an in situ pilot-scale PRB were examined after the first 30 months of operation and compared with results of a previous study of the PRB conducted 15 months earlier using X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy employing energy dispersive X-ray and backscatter electron analyses. Iron (oxy)hydroxides, aragonite, and maghemite and/or magnetite occurred throughout the cores collected 30 mo after installation. Goethite, lepidocrocite, mackinawite, aragonite, calcite, and siderite were associated with oxidized and cemented areas, while green rusts were detected in more reduced zones. Basic differences from our last detailed investigation include (i) mackinawite crystallized from amorphous FeS, (ii) aragonite transformed into calcite, (iii) akaganeite transformed to goethite and lepidocrocite, (iv) iron (oxy)hydroxides and calcium and iron carbonate minerals increased, (v) cementation was greater in the more recent study, and (vi) oxidation, corrosion, and disintegration of Fe0 filings were greater, especially in cemented areas, in the more recent study. If the degree of corrosion and cementation that was observed from 15 to 30 mo after installation continues, certain portions of the PRB (i.e., up-gradient entrance of the ground water to the Fe0 section of the PRB) may last less than five more years, thus reducing the effectiveness of the PRB to mitigate contaminants. Abbreviations: EDX, energy dispersive X-ray • Fe0, zerovalent iron • PRB, permeable reactive barrier • SEM, scanning electron microscopy • XRD, X-ray diffraction