Predicting forest attributes In southeast Alaska using artificial neural networks

Artificial neural network (ANN) methods are used to predict forest characteristics. The data source is the Southeast Alaska (SEAK) Grid Inventory, a ground survey compiled by the USDA Forest Service at several thousand sites. The main objective of this article is to predict characteristics at unsurveyed locations between grid sites. A secondary objective is to evaluate the relative performance of different ANNs. Data from the grid sites are used to train six ANNs: multilayer perceptron, fuzzy ARTMAP, probabilistic, generalized regression, radial basis function, and learning vector quantization. A classification and regression tree method is used for comparison. Topographic variables are used to construct models: latitude and longitude coordinates, elevation, slope, and aspect. The models classify three forest characteristics: crown closure, species land cover, and tree size/structure. Models are constructed using n-fold cross-validation. Predictive accuracy is calculated using a method that accounts for the influence of misclassification as well as measuring correct classifications. The probabilistic and generalized regression networks are found to be the most accurate. The predictions of the ANN models are compared with a classification of the Tongass national forest in southeast Alaska based on the interpretation of satellite imagery and are found to be of similar accuracy.

Holocene climate change and past Irish societal response

The extent to which North Atlantic Holocene climatic perturbations influenced past human societies is an area of considerable uncertainty and fierce debate. Ireland is ideally placed to help resolve this issue, being occupied for over 9000 yr and located on the eastern Atlantic seaboard, a region dominated by westerly airflow. Irish bog and lake tree populations provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in surface moisture through the Holocene similar to cycles recorded in the marine realm of the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. To test for human response to these cycles we summed the probabilities of 465 radiocarbon ages obtained from Irish archaeological contexts and observe enhanced archaeological visibility during periods of sustained wet conditions. These results suggest either increasing density of human populations in key, often defensive locations, and/or the development of subsistence strategies to overcome changing conditions, the latter recently proposed as a significant factor in avoiding societal collapse. Regardless, we demonstrate environmental change is a significantly more important factor in influencing human activity in the landscape than has hitherto been acknowledged.

Comparisons of plankton at 59 degrees N and 37 degrees N during two Lagrangian drift experiments in the North Atlantic in June and July 1996

Data are summarised for two Lagrangian experiments in the North Atlantic in early summer 1996. At 59 degreesN 20 degreesW, plankton dynamics was studied in an SF, tracer release experiment within a mesoscale eddy over a 9-day period. At 37 degreesN 20 degreesW, a second experiment followed a drifting buoy for 7 days. The data obtained in these two experiments have been averaged for 3 depth strata; the euphotic zone, the surface mixed layer (SML), and the seasonal thermocline immediately beneath the surface mixed layer. At 59 degreesN, the euphotic zone was only marginally deeper than the SML, but at 37 degreesN the SML was ca 30 m and the euphotic depth was ca 110 m. At 37 degreesN, nutrient concentrations in the SML were low but significant new production occurred in the thermocline because of light penetration into the nutricline. The particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration of the SML at 59 degreesN was 13-15 mu mol C kg(-1), but at 37 degreesN POC concentrations were 4 mu mol C kg(-1). These POC measurements include biota and detritus. As a way of investigating latitudinal differences in the plankton communities, estimates have been made of the carbon and nitrogen content of phytoplankton, bacterioplankton, microzooplankton and mesozooplankton. At both 59 degreesN and 37 degreesN, phytoplankton was the largest component, accounting for ca 50% of the planktonic biomass in the SML. At 59 degreesN, microzooplankton was 16% of the planktonic carbon, but at 37 degreesN this reduced to 8% of the total. Mesozooplankton was a relatively constant proportion (ca 20%) of the planktonic carbon in the SML at both 59 degreesN and 37 degreesN. Bacterioplankton was 14% of the biomass at 59 degreesN, increasing to 24% in the microbial loop-dominated system at 37 degreesN. Mean carbon fixation rate in the oligotrophic southern station was 24% of that at the north, with more carbon fixation below the SML at 37 degreesN than at 59 degreesN. Respiration rates showed little variation with latitude, and the rates at 37 degreesN were 80% of those at 59 degreesN. Nitrate and ammonium uptake rates were very low in the oligotrophic conditions in the SML at 37 degreesN, but nitrate uptake in the euphotic zone was comparable to that at 59 degreesN. Ammonium uptake by phytoplankton was also significantly greater at 37 degreesN, in both the euphotic zone and thermocline, but uptake in the SML was only 20% of that in the SML at 59 degreesN. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Habitat associations of the red squirrel Sciurus vulgaris and grey squirrel S-carolinensis in Northern Ireland

A survey of red and grey squirrel habitat associations in Northern Ireland was conducted between September 1994 and August 1995. Two hundred and sixty-one sites were visited and a list of habitat characteristics for each site was noted. Multiple discriminant function analysis of the habitat type was employed to group squirrel occurrence, while contingency analysis examined independence of habitat type and squirrel species presence. Habitat associations differed between the two species. One-way ANOVAs of habitat data suggested that sites occupied by red squirrels only were predominantly coniferous, at higher altitude and latitude and much larger in area than sites occupied by grey squirrels only, which were mostly deciduous. When both species were sympatric, sites were more likely to be coniferous and larger in area than sites occupied by either species. Grey squirrels were less frequent than expected in upland plantations and more frequent than expected in parkland and gardens; the opposite was true for red squirrels. The mean distance between sites with only red squirrels and the nearest site with grey squirrels was greater than the mean distance between sites with only grey squirrels and the nearest site with red squirrels. An approach to conserving the red squirrel in view of the continued expansion in the grey squirrel's distribution in Ireland is discussed.

Large-scale spatial patterns in the distribution of Collembola (Hexapoda) species in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems

We tested whether the distribution of three common springtail species (Gressittacantha terranova, Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni and Friesea grisea) in Victoria Land (Antarctica) could be modelled as a function of latitude, longitude, altitude and distance from the sea.

Victoria Land, Ross Dependency, Antarctica.

Generalized linear models were constructed using species presence/absence data relative to geographical features (latitude, longitude, altitude, distance from sea) across the species' entire ranges. Model results were then integrated with the known phylogeography of each species and hypotheses were generated on the role of climate as a major driver of Antarctic springtail distribution.

Based on model selection using Akaike's information criterion, the species' distributions were: hump-shaped relative to longitude and monotonic with altitude for Gressittacantha terranova; hump-shaped relative to latitude and monotonic with altitude for Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni; and hump-shaped relative to longitude and monotonic with latitude, altitude and distance from the sea for Friesea grisea.

No single distributional pattern was shared by the three species. While distributions were partially a response to climatic spatial clines, the patterns observed strongly suggest that past geological events have influenced the observed distributions. Accordingly, present-day spatial patterns are likely to have arisen from the interaction of historical and environmental drivers. Future studies will need to integrate a range of spatial and temporal scales to further quantify their respective roles.

Testing solar forcing of pervasive Holocene climate cycles

The temporal and spatial extent of Holocene climate change is an area of considerable uncertainty, with solar forcing recently proposed to be the origin of cycles identified in the North Atlantic region. To address these issues we have developed an annually resolved record of changes in Irish bog tree populations over the last 7468 years which, together with radiocarbon-dated bog and lake-edge populations, extend the dataset back to 9000 yr ago. The Irish trees underpin the internationally accepted radiocarbon calibration curve, used to derive a proxy of solar activity, and allow us to test solar forcing of Holocene climate change. Tree populations and age structures provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in Holocene surface moisture, with a dominant cyclicity of 800 yr, similar to marine cycles in the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. The cycles, however, are not coherent with changes in solar activity (both being on the same absolute timescale), indicating that Holocene North Atlantic climate variability at the millennial and centennial scale is not driven by a linear response to changes in solar activity.

Neotropical refugia

Patterns of endemism in the Neotropics have been explained by restriction of forest to ‘refugia’ in arid cold-stages of the Quaternary (Haffer J (1969)
Speciation in Amazonian forest birds. Science 165: 131–137). The palaeoecological record, however, shows no such forest contraction. We review
palaeoecological and phylogenetic data on the response of Neotropical taxa and communities to climatic changes of the Cenozoic. Solar insolation varies
over this period with latitude and geography, including shifts in opposite directions between high and low latitudes. In the Neotropics, distribution and
abundance patterns originate on a wide range of timescales through the Cenozoic, down to the currently dominant precession forcing (20 kyr). In contrast,
distributions and abundances at higher latitudes are controlled by obliquity forcing (40 kyr). The patterns observed by Haffer (1969) are likely derived
from pre-Quaternary radiations and are not inconsistent with palaeoecological findings of continuous forest cover in major areas of the Neotropics
during the Quaternary. The relative proportions of speciation processes have changed through time between predominantly sympatric to predominantly
allopatric depending on the prevailing characteristics of orbitally forced climatic changes. Behaviour of Neotropical organisms and ecosystems on long
timescales may be influenced much more by precessional forcing than by the obliquity forcing that controls high-latitude climate change and glaciations.

An Update on Sedimentary Pigments in Victoria Land Lakes (East Antarctica)

Antarctic ice-free areas contain lakes and ponds that have interesting limnological features and are of wide global significance as early warning indicators of climatic and environmental change. However, most linmological and paleolimnological studies in continental Antarctica are limited to certain regions. There are several ice-free areas in Victoria Land that have not yet been studied well. There is therefore a need to extend limnological studies in space and time to understand how different geological and climatic features affect the composition and biological activity of freshwater communities. With the aim of contributing to a better limnological characterization of Victoria Land, this paper reports data on sedimentary pigments (used to identify the main algal taxa) obtained through a methodology that is more sensitive and selective than that of previous studies. Analyses were extended to 48 water bodies in ice-free areas with differing lithology, latitude, and altitude, and with different morphometry and physical, chemical, and biological characteristics in order to identify environmental factors affecting the distribution and composition of freshwater autotrophic communities. A wider knowledge of lakes in a limnologically important region of Antarctica was obtained. Cyanophyta was found to be the most important algal group, followed by Chlorophyta and Bacillariophyta, whereas latitude and altitude are the main factors affecting pigment distribution.

Roche tomography of cataclysmic variables - VI. Differential rotation of AE Aqr - not tidally locked!

We present Roche tomograms of the K4V secondary star in the cataclysmic variable AE Aqr, reconstructed from two data sets taken 9 d apart, and measure the differential rotation of the stellar surface. The tomograms show many large, cool starspots, including a large high-latitude spot and a prominent appendage down the trailing hemisphere. We find two distinct bands of spots around 22° and 43° latitude, and estimate a spot coverage of 15.4-17 per cent on the Northern hemisphere. Assuming a solar-like differential rotation law, the differential rotation of AE Aqr was measured using two different techniques. The first method yields an equator-pole lap time of 269 d and the second yields a lap time of 262 d. This shows that the star is not fully tidally locked, as was previously assumed for CVs, but has a co-rotation latitude of ˜40°. We discuss the implications that these observations have on stellar dynamo theory, as well as the impact that spot traversal across the L1 point may have on accretion rates in CVs as well as some of their other observed properties. The entropy landscape technique was applied to determine the system parameters of AE Aqr. For the two independent data sets, we find M1 = 1.20 and 1.17 M⊙, M2 = 0.81 and 0.78 M⊙, and orbital inclinations of 50° to 51° at optimal systemic velocities of γ = -64.7 and -62.9 km s-1.