Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.

School and Community Screening Shows Malawi, Africa, to Have a High Prevalence of Latent Rheumatic Heart Disease

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is the largest cardiac cause of morbidity and mortality in the world's youth. Early detection of RHD through echocardiographic screening in asymptomatic children may identify an early stage of disease, when secondary prophylaxis has the greatest chance of stopping disease progression. Latent RHD signifies echocardiographic evidence of RHD with no known history of acute rheumatic fever and no clinical symptoms.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the prevalence of latent RHD among children ages 5-16 in Lilongwe, Malawi.

DESIGN: This is a cross-sectional study in which children ages 5 through 16 were screened for RHD using echocardiography.

SETTING: Screening was conducted in 3 schools and surrounding communities in the Lilongwe district of Malawi between February and April 2014.

OUTCOME MEASURES: Children were diagnosed as having no, borderline, or definite RHD as defined by World Heart Federation criteria. The primary reader completed offline reads of all studies. A second reader reviewed all of the studies diagnosed as RHD, plus a selection of normal studies. A third reader served as tiebreaker for discordant diagnoses. The distribution of results was compared between gender, location, and age categories using Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS: The prevalence of latent RHD was 3.4% (95% CI = 2.45, 4.31), with 0.7% definite RHD and 2.7% borderline RHD. There was no significant differences in prevalence between gender (P = .44), site (P = .6), urban vs. peri-urban (P = .75), or age (P = .79). Of those with definite RHD, all were diagnosed because of pathologic mitral regurgitation (MR) and 2 morphologic features of the mitral valve. Of those with borderline RHD, most met the criteria by having pathological MR (92.3%).

CONCLUSION: Malawi has a high rate of latent RHD, which is consistent with other results from sub-Saharan Africa. This study strongly supports the need for a RHD prevention and control program in Malawi.

Combining histology, stable isotope analysis and ZooMS collagen fingerprinting to investigate the taphonomic history and dietary behaviour of extinct giant tortoises from the Mare aux Songes deposit on Mauritius

Taphonomic research of bones can provide additional insight into a site's formation and development, the burial environment and ongoing post-mortem processes. A total of 30 tortoise (Cylindraspis) femur bone samples from the Mare aux Songes site (Mauritius)were studied histologically, assessing parameters such as presence and type of microbial alteration, inclusions, staining/infiltrations, the degree of microcracking and birefringence. The absence of microbial attack in the 4200 year old Mare aux Songes bones suggests the animals rapidly entered the soil whole-bodied and were sealed anoxically, although they suffered frombiological and chemical degradation (i.e. pyrite formation/oxidation, mineral dissolution and staining) related to changes in the site's hydrology. Additionally, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopeswere analysed to obtain information on the animals' feeding behaviour. The results show narrowly distributed δ13C ratios, indicating a terrestrial C3 plant-based diet, combined with a wide range in δ15N ratios. This is most likely related to the tortoises' drought-adaptive ability to change their metabolic processes, which can affect the δ15N ratios. Furthermore, ZooMS collagen fingerprinting analysis successfully identified two tortoise species (C. triserrata and C. inepta) in the bone assemblage,which,when combined with stable isotope data, revealed significantly different δ15N ratios between the two tortoise species. As climatic changes around this period resulted in increased aridity in the Mascarene Islands, this could explain the extremely elevated δ15N ratio in our dataset. The endemic fauna was able to endure the climatic changes 4200 years ago, although human arrival in the 17th century changed the original habitat to such an extent that it resulted in the extinction of several species. Fortunately we are still able to study these extinct tortoises due to the beneficial conditions of their burial environment, resulting in excellent bone preservation.