Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.

Selective FLT3 inhibition of FLT3-ITD+ acute myeloid leukaemia resulting in secondary D835Y mutation: a model for emerging clinical resistance patterns.

Acquired resistance to selective FLT3 inhibitors is an emerging clinical problem in the treatment of FLT3-ITD(+) acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). The paucity of valid pre-clinical models has restricted investigations to determine the mechanism of acquired therapeutic resistance, thereby limiting the development of effective treatments. We generated selective FLT3 inhibitor-resistant cells by treating the FLT3-ITD(+) human AML cell line MOLM-13 in vitro with the FLT3-selective inhibitor MLN518, and validated the resistant phenotype in vivo and in vitro. The resistant cells, MOLM-13-RES, harboured a new D835Y tyrosine kinase domain (TKD) mutation on the FLT3-ITD(+) allele. Acquired TKD mutations, including D835Y, have recently been identified in FLT3-ITD(+) patients relapsing after treatment with the novel FLT3 inhibitor, AC220. Consistent with this clinical pattern of resistance, MOLM-13-RES cells displayed high relative resistance to AC220 and Sorafenib. Furthermore, treatment of MOLM-13-RES cells with AC220 lead to loss of the FLT3 wild-type allele and the duplication of the FLT3-ITD-D835Y allele. Our FLT3-Aurora kinase inhibitor, CCT137690, successfully inhibited growth of FLT3-ITD-D835Y cells in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that dual FLT3-Aurora inhibition may overcome selective FLT3 inhibitor resistance, in part due to inhibition of Aurora kinase, and may benefit patients with FLT3-mutated AML.

Irish Credit Unions: Differential Regulation based on Business Model Complexity

This study examines the business model complexity of Irish credit unions using a latent class approach to measure structural performance over the period 2002 to 2013. The latent class approach allows the endogenous identification of a multi-class framework for business models based on credit union specific characteristics. The analysis finds a three class system to be appropriate with the multi-class model dependent on three financial viability characteristics. This finding is consistent with the deliberations of the Irish Commission on Credit Unions (2012) which identified complexity and diversity in the business models of Irish credit unions and recommended that such complexity and diversity could not be accommodated within a one size fits all regulatory framework. The analysis also highlights that two of the classes are subject to diseconomies of scale. This may suggest credit unions would benefit from a reduction in scale or perhaps that there is an imbalance in the present change process. Finally, relative performance differences are identified for each class in terms of technical efficiency. This suggests that there is an opportunity for credit unions to improve their performance by using within-class best practice or alternatively by switching to another class.