Geochemical records of palaeoenvironmental controls on peat forming processes in the Mfabeni peatland, Kwazulu Natal, South Africa since the Late Pleistocene

The Mfabeni peatland is the only known sub-tropical coastal fen that transcends the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This ca. 10m thick peat sequence provides a continuous sedimentation record spanning from the late Pleistocene to present (basal age c. 47kcalyr BP). We investigated the paleaeoenvironmental controls on peat formation and organic matter source input at the Mfabeni fen by: 1) exploring geochemical records (mass accumulation rate, total organic carbon, carbon accumulation rate, δC, δN and C/N ratio) to delineate primary production, organic matter source input, preservation and diagenetic processes, and 2) employ these geochemical signatures to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental conditions and prevailing climate that drove carbon accumulation in the peatland. We established that the Mfabeni peat sediments have undergone minimal diagenetic alteration. The peat sequence was divided into 5 linear sedimentation rate (LSR) stages indicating distinct changes in climate and hydrological conditions: LSR stage 1 (c. 47 to c. 32.2kcalyr BP): predominantly cool and wet climate with C4 plant assemblages, interrupted by two short warming events. LSR stage 2 (c. 32.2 to c. 27.6kcalyr BP): dry and windy climate followed by a brief warm and wet period with increased C4 sedge swamp vegetation. LSR stage 3 (c. 27.6 to c. 20.3kcalyr BP): initial cool and wet period with prevailing C4 sedge plant assemblage until c. 23kcalyr BP; then an abrupt change to dry and cool glacial conditions and steady increases in C3 grasses. LSR stage 4 (c. 20.3 to c. 10.4kcalyr BP): continuation of cool and dry conditions and strong C3 grassland signature until c. 15kcalyr BP, after which precipitation increases. LSR stage 5 (c. 10.4kcalyr BP to present): characterised by extreme fluctuations between pervasive wet and warm to cool interglacial conditions with intermittent abrupt millennial-scale cooling/drying events and oscillations between C3 and C4 plant assemblages. In this study we reconstructed a high-resolution record of local hydrology, bulk plant assemblage and inferred climate since the Late Pleistocene, which suggest an anti-phase link between Southern African and the Northern Hemisphere, most notably during Heinrich (5 to 2) and Younger Dryas events. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Do Gifts Increase Consent to Home-based HIV Testing? A Difference-in-differences Study in Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Background Despite the importance of HIV testing for controlling the HIV epidemic, testing rates remain low. Efforts to scale-up testing coverage and frequency in hard-to-reach and at-risk populations commonly focus on home-based HIV testing. This study evaluates the effect of a gift (a food voucher for families, worth US$ 5) on consent rates for home-based HIV testing.
Methods We use data on 18,478 men and women who participated in the 2009 and 2010 population-based HIV surveillance carried out by the Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Our quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach controls for unobserved confounding in estimating the causal effect of the intervention on HIV testing consent rates.
Results Allocation of the gift to a family in 2010 increased the probability of family members consenting to test in 2010 by 25 percentage points (95% CI 21-30; p<0.001). The intervention effect persisted, slightly attenuated, in the year following the intervention (2011), further increasing intervention value for money.
Conclusions In HIV hyperendemic settings a gift can be highly effective at increasing consent rates for home-based HIV testing. Given the importance of HIV testing for treatment uptake and individual health, as well as for HIV treatment-and-prevention strategies and for monitoring the population impact of the HIV response, gifts should be considered as a supportive intervention for HIV testing initiatives where consent rates have been low.

Adjusting HIV Prevalence Estimates for Non-participation: an Application to Demographic Surveillance

Introduction: HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa.

Methods: We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status.

Results: For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who participated in testing, and 18% estimated with imputation. We provide new confidence intervals that correct for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is unknown and requires estimation.

Conclusions: We confirm the feasibility and value of adopting selection models to account for missing data in population-based HIV surveys and surveillance systems. Elements of survey design, such as interviewer identity, present the opportunity to adopt this approach in routine applications. Where non-participation is high, true confidence intervals are much wider than those generated by standard approaches to dealing with missing data suggest.

Novel polymorphic microsatellite loci for the protogynous hermaphrodite slinger sea bream (Chrysoblephus puniceus, Sparidae)

As a result of the global decline of fish stocks, an increasing number of fish species are becoming targets of heavy exploitation, often concomitantly with a lack of biological knowledge on their structure and demographics. Here we present 11 new polymorphic microsatellite loci, isolated from the slinger sea bream (Chrysoblephus puniceus, Sparidae), a relatively recent target of coastal fisheries in eastern South Africa. Levels of genetic diversity were assessed in 39 individuals collected from the KwaZulu-Natal coast (Park Rynie, South Africa). Observed and expected heterozygosities varied between 0.39 and 0.97 and between 0.53 and 0.96, respectively. One locus (SL35) showed significant heterozygote deficiency and linkage disequilibrium was detected between SL35 and SL1. Importantly, five of these microsatellites cross-amplify in Cheimerius nufar, a sympatric species also subjected to exploitation.