Expanding Agri-Food Production and Employment in the Presence of Climate Policy Constraints: Quantifying the Trade-Off in Ireland

This chapter explores the trade-off between competing objectives of employment creation and climate policy commitments in Irish agriculture. A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier model is linked with a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model to simulate the impact of a number of GHG emission reduction scenarios, assuming these are achieved through a constraint on beef production. Limiting the size of the beef sector helps to reduce GHG emissions with a very limited impact on the value of agricultural income at the farm level. However, the SAM multiplier analysis shows that there would be significant employment losses in the wider economy. From a policy perspective, a pragmatic approach to GHG emissions reductions in the agriculture sector, which balances opportunities for economic growth in the sector with opportunities to reduce associated GHG emissions, may be required.

National incomes and economic growth in pre-industrial Europe: insights from recent research

Pessimistic Malthusian verdicts on the capacity of pre-industrial European economies to sustain a degree of real economic growth under conditions of population growth are challenged using current reconstructions of urbanisation ratios, the real wage rates of building and agricultural labourers, and GDP per capita estimated by a range of methods. Economic growth is shown to have outpaced population growth and raised GDP per capita to in excess of $1,500 (1990 $ international at PPP) in Italy during its twelfth- and thirteenth-century commercial revolution, Holland during its fifteenth- and sixteenth-century golden age, and England during the seventeenth- and eighteenth-century runup to its industrial revolution. During each of these Smithian growth episodes expanding trade and commerce sustained significant output and employment growth in the manufacturing and service sectors. These positive developments were not necessarily reflected by trends in real wage rates for the latter were powerfully influenced by associated changes in relative factor prices and the per capita supply of labour as workers varied the length of the working year in order to consume either more leisure or more goods. The scale of the divergence between trends in real wage rates and GDP per capita nevertheless varied a great deal between countries for reasons which have yet to be adequately explained.