Evidential event inference in transport video surveillance

This paper presents a new framework for multi-subject event inference in surveillance video, where measurements produced by low-level vision analytics usually are noisy, incomplete or incorrect. Our goal is to infer the composite events undertaken by each subject from noise observations. To achieve this, we consider the temporal characteristics of event relations and propose a method to correctly associate the detected events with individual subjects. The Dempster–Shafer (DS) theory of belief functions is used to infer events of interest from the results of our vision analytics and to measure conflicts occurring during the event association. Our system is evaluated against a number of videos that present passenger behaviours on a public transport platform namely buses at different levels of complexity. The experimental results demonstrate that by reasoning with spatio-temporal correlations, the proposed method achieves a satisfying performance when associating atomic events and recognising composite events involving multiple subjects in dynamic environments.

Evidence reasoning for event inference in smart transport video surveillance

In this paper we present a new event recognition framework, based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, which combines the evidence from multiple atomic events detected by low-level computer vision analytics. The proposed framework employs evidential network modelling of composite events. This approach can effectively handle the uncertainty of the detected events, whilst inferring high-level events that have semantic meaning with high degrees of belief. Our scheme has been comprehensively evaluated against various scenarios that simulate passenger behaviour on public transport platforms such as buses and trains. The average accuracy rate of our method is 81% in comparison to 76% by a standard rule-based method.

Nonlinear transport and localization in single-walled carbon nanotubes

We have measured the electrical transport properties of mats of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNT) as a function of applied electric and magnetic fields. We find that at low temperatures the resistance as a function of temperature R(T) follows the Mott variable range hopping (VRH) formula for hopping in three dimensions. Measurement of the electric field dependence of the resistance R(E) allows for the determination of the Bohr radius of a localized state a = 700nm. The magnetoresistance (MR) of SWNT mat samples is large and negative at all temperatures and fields studied. The low field negative MR is proportional to H2, in agreement with variable range hopping in two or three dimensions. 3D VRH indicates good intertube contacts, implying that the localization is due to the disorder experienced by the individual tubes. The 3D localization radius gives a measure of the ID localization length on the individual tubes, which we estimate to be >700 nm. Implications for the electron-phonon mean free path are discussed.

The developmental character of cardiac autonomic responses to an acute noxious event in 4- and 8-month-old healthy infants

Heart rate (HR) has been widely studied as a measure of an individual's response to painful stimuli. It remains unclear whether changes in mean HR or the variability of HR are specifically related to the noxious stimulus (i.e. pain). Neither is it well understood how such changes reflect underlying neurologic control mechanisms that produce these responses, or how these mechanisms change during the first year of life. To study the changes in cardiac autonomic modulation that occur with acute pain and with age during early infancy, the relationship between respiratory activity and short-term variations of HR (i.e. respiratory sinus arrhythmia) was quantified in a longitudinal study of term born healthy infants who underwent a finger lance blood collection at 4 months of age (n = 24) and again at 8 months of age (n = 20). Quantitative respiratory activity and HR were obtained during baseline, lance, and recovery periods. Time and frequency domain analyses from 2.2-min epochs of data yielded mean values, spectral measures of low (0.04-0.15 Hz) and high (0.15-0.80 Hz) frequency power (LF and HF), and the LF/HF ratio. To determine sympathetic and parasympathetic cardiac activity, the transfer relation between respiration and HR was used. At both 4 and 8 months, mean HR increased significantly with the noxious event (p > 0.01). There were age-related differences in the pattern of LF, HF, and LF/HF ratio changes. Although these parameters all decreased (p > 0.01) at 4 months, LF and LF/HF increased at 8 months and at 8 months HF remained stable in response to the noxious stimulus. Transfer gain changes with the lance demonstrated a change from predominant vagal baseline to a sympathetic condition at both ages. The primary finding of this study is that a response to an acute noxious stimulus appears to produce an increase in respiratory-related sympathetic HR control and a significant decrease in respiratory-related parasympathetic control at both 4 and 8 months. Furthermore, with increasing age, the sympathetic and parasympathetic changes appear to be less intense, but more sustained.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

North Atlantic marine radiocarbon reservoir ages through Heinrich event H4: A new method for marine age model construction

Cooling and sinking of dense saline water in the Norwegian–Greenland Sea is essential for the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water. The convection in the Norwegian–Greenland Sea allows for a northward flow of warm surface water and southward transport of cold saline water. This circulation system is highly sensitive to climate change and has been shown to operate in different modes. In ice cores the last glacial period is characterized by millennial-scale Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events of warm interstadials and cold stadials. Similar millennial-scale variability (linked to D–O events) is evident from oceanic cores, suggesting a strong coupling of the atmospheric and oceanic circulations system. Particularly long-lasting cold stadials correlate with North Atlantic Heinrich events, where icebergs released from the continents caused a spread of meltwater over the northern North Atlantic and Nordic seas. The meltwater layer is believed to have caused a stop or near-stop in the deep convection, leading to cold climate. The spreading of meltwater and changes in oceanic circulation have a large influence on the carbon exchange between atmosphere and the deep ocean and lead to profound changes in the 14C activity of the surface ocean. Here we demonstrate marine 14C reservoir ages (R) of up to c. 2000 years for Heinrich event H4. Our R estimates are based on a new method for age model construction using identified tephra layers and tie-points based on abrupt interstadial warmings.

Video Event Recognition by Dempster-Shafer Theory

This paper presents an event recognition framework, based on Dempster-Shafer theory, that combines evidence of events from low-level computer vision analytics. The proposed method employing evidential network modelling of composite events, is able to represent uncertainty of event output from low level video analysis and infer high level events with semantic meaning along with degrees of belief. The method has been evaluated on videos taken of subjects entering and leaving a seated area. This has relevance to a number of transport scenarios, such as onboard buses and trains, and also in train stations and airports. Recognition results of 78% and 100% for four composite events are encouraging.

Exceptionally Long Distance Transport of Volcanic Ash: Implications for Stratigraphy, Hazards and the Sourcing of Distal Tephra Deposits

Cryptotephras (tephra not visible to the naked eye) form the foundation of the tephrostratigraphic frameworks used in Europe to date and correlate widely distributed geologic, paleoenvironmental and archaeological records. Pyne-O'Donnell et al. (2012) established the potential for developing a similar crypto-tephrostratigraphy across eastern North America by identifying multiple tephra, including the White River Ash (east; WRAe), St. Helens We and East Lake, in a peat core located in Newfoundland. Following on from this work, several ongoing projects have examined additional peat cores from Michigan, New York State, Maine, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland to build a tephrostratigraphic framework for this region. Using the precedent set by recent research by Jensen et al.(in press) that correlated the Alaskan WRAe to the European cryptotephra AD860B, unknown tephras identified in this work were not necessarily assumed to be from "expected" source areas (e.g. the Cascades). Here we present several examples of the preservation of tephra layers with an intercontinental distribution (i.e. WRAe and Ksudach 1), from relatively small magnitude events (i.e. St. Helens layer T, Mono Crater), and the first example of a Mexican ash in the NE (Volcan Ceboruco, Jala pumice). There are several implications of the identification of these units. These far-travelled ashes: (1) highlight the need to consider "ultra" distal source volcanoes for unknown cryptotephra deposits,. (2) present an opportunity for physical volcanologists to examine why some eruptions have an exceptional distribution of ash that is not necessarily controlled by the magnitude of the event. (3) complicate the idea of using tephrostratigraphic frameworks to understand the frequency of eruptions towards aiding hazard planning and prediction (e.g. Swindles et al., 2011). (4) show that there is a real potential to link tropical and mid to high-latitude paleoenvironmental records. Jensen et al. (in press) Transatlantic correlation of the Alaskan White River Ash. Geology. Pyne-O'Donnell et al. (2012). High-precision ultra-distal Holocene tephrochronology in North America. Quaternary Science Reviews, 52, 6-11. Swindles et al. (2011). A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe. Geology, 39, 887-890.

Adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in early breast cancer: meta-analyses of individual patient data from randomised trials

BACKGROUND: Bisphosphonates have profound effects on bone physiology, and could modify the process of metastasis. We undertook collaborative meta-analyses to clarify the risks and benefits of adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in breast cancer.

METHODS: We sought individual patient data from all unconfounded trials in early breast cancer that randomised between bisphosphonate and control. Primary outcomes were recurrence, distant recurrence, and breast cancer mortality. Primary subgroup investigations were site of first distant recurrence (bone or other), menopausal status (postmenopausal [combining natural and artificial] or not), and bisphosphonate class (aminobisphosphonate [eg, zoledronic acid, ibandronate, pamidronate] or other [ie, clodronate]). Intention-to-treat log-rank methods yielded bisphosphonate versus control first-event rate ratios (RRs).

FINDINGS: We received data on 18 766 women (18 206 [97%] in trials of 2-5 years of bisphosphonate) with median follow-up 5·6 woman-years, 3453 first recurrences, and 2106 subsequent deaths. Overall, the reductions in recurrence (RR 0·94, 95% CI 0·87-1·01; 2p=0·08), distant recurrence (0·92, 0·85-0·99; 2p=0·03), and breast cancer mortality (0·91, 0·83-0·99; 2p=0·04) were of only borderline significance, but the reduction in bone recurrence was more definite (0·83, 0·73-0·94; 2p=0·004). Among premenopausal women, treatment had no apparent effect on any outcome, but among 11 767 postmenopausal women it produced highly significant reductions in recurrence (RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·78-0·94; 2p=0·002), distant recurrence (0·82, 0·74-0·92; 2p=0·0003), bone recurrence (0·72, 0·60-0·86; 2p=0·0002), and breast cancer mortality (0·82, 0·73-0·93; 2p=0·002). Even for bone recurrence, however, the heterogeneity of benefit was barely significant by menopausal status (2p=0·06 for trend with menopausal status) or age (2p=0·03), and it was non-significant by bisphosphonate class, treatment schedule, oestrogen receptor status, nodes, tumour grade, or concomitant chemotherapy. No differences were seen in non-breast cancer mortality. Bone fractures were reduced (RR 0·85, 95% CI 0·75-0·97; 2p=0·02).

INTERPRETATION: Adjuvant bisphosphonates reduce the rate of breast cancer recurrence in the bone and improve breast cancer survival, but there is definite benefit only in women who were postmenopausal when treatment began.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.

Do persistent organic pollutants interact with the stress response? Individual compounds, and their mixtures, interaction with the glucocorticoid receptor

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are toxic substances, highly resistant to environmental degradation, which can bio-accumulate and have long-range atmospheric transport potential (UNEP 2001). The majority of studies on endocrine disruption have focused on interferences on the sexual steroid hormones and so have overlooked disruption to glucocorticoid hormones. Here the endocrine disrupting potential of individual POPs and their mixtures has been investigated in vitro to identify any disruption to glucocorticoid nuclear receptor transcriptional activity. POP mixtures were screened for glucocorticoid receptor (GR) translocation using a GR redistribution assay (RA) on a CellInsight(TM) NXT High Content Screening (HCS) platform. A mammalian reporter gene assay (RGA) was then used to assess the individual POPs, and their mixtures, for effects on glucocorticoid nuclear receptor transactivation. POP mixtures did not induce GR translocation in the GR RA or produce an agonist response in the GR RGA. However, in the antagonist test, in the presence of cortisol, an individual POP, p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), was found to decrease glucocorticoid nuclear receptor transcriptional activity to 72.5% (in comparison to the positive cortisol control). Enhanced nuclear transcriptional activity, in the presence of cortisol, was evident for the two lowest concentrations of perfluorodecanoic acid (PFOS) potassium salt (0.0147mg/ml and 0.0294mg/ml), the two highest concentrations of perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) (0.0025mg/ml and 0.005mg/ml) and the highest concentration of 2,2',4,4'-tetrabromodiphenyl ether (BDE 47) (0.0000858mg/ml). It is important to gain a better understanding of how POPs can interact with GRs as the disruption of glucocorticoid action is thought to contribute to complex diseases.

Insight into determinants of substrate binding and transport in a multidrug efflux protein

Multidrug resistance arising from the activity of integral membrane transporter proteins presents a global public health threat. In bacteria such as Escherichia coli, transporter proteins belonging to the major facilitator superfamily make a considerable contribution to multidrug resistance by catalysing efflux of myriad structurally and chemically different antimicrobial compounds. Despite their clinical relevance, questions pertaining to mechanistic details of how these promiscuous proteins function remain outstanding, and the role(s) played by individual amino acid residues in recognition, binding and subsequent transport of different antimicrobial substrates by multidrug efflux members of the major facilitator superfamily requires illumination. Using in silico homology modelling, molecular docking and mutagenesis studies in combination with substrate binding and transport assays, we identified several amino acid residues that play important roles in antimicrobial substrate recognition, binding and transport by Escherichia coli MdtM, a representative multidrug efflux protein of the major facilitator superfamily. Furthermore, our studies suggested that 'aromatic clamps' formed by tyrosine and phenylalanine residues located within the substrate binding pocket of MdtM may be important for antimicrobial substrate recognition and transport by the protein. Such 'clamps' may be a structurally and functionally important feature of all major facilitator multidrug efflux proteins.