Testing of a Market Fraction Model and Power-law Behaviour in the DAX 30

This paper tests a simple market fraction asset pricing model with heterogeneous
agents. By selecting a set of structural parameters of the model through a systematic procedure, we show that the autocorrelations (of returns, absolute returns and squared returns) of the market fraction model share the same pattern as those of the DAX 30. By conducting econometric analysis via Monte Carlo simulations, we characterize these power-law behaviours and find that estimates of the power-law decay indices, the (FI)GARCH parameters, and the tail index of the selected market fraction model closely match those of the DAX 30. The results strongly support the explanatory power of the heterogeneous agent models.

Testing of the Factor Structure of the Nursing Work Index-Revised

Background: Recent research has questioned the reliability and validity of the Nursing Work Index-Revised (NWI-R) instrument, raising the possibility that managers reconfiguring hospitals in line with the factors derived from the NWI-R may be misdirecting resources.

Obesity associated severe asthma represents a distinct clinical phenotype - Analysis of the British Thoracic Society Difficult Asthma Registry patient cohort according to body mass index

BACKGROUND: Obesity has emerged as a risk factor for the development of asthma and it may also influence asthma control and airways inflammation. However, the role of obesity in severe asthma remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between obesity (defined by BMI) and severe asthma. METHODS: Data from the National Registry for dedicated UK Difficult Asthma Services were used to compare patient demographics, disease characteristics and healthcare utilisation between three body mass index (BMI) categories (normal weight: 18.5 -24.99, overweight: 25 -29.99, obese: =30) in a well characterised group of severe asthmatic adults. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 666 severe asthmatics with a median BMI of 29.8 (interquartile range 22.5 -34.0). The obese group exhibited greater asthma medication requirements in terms of maintenance corticosteroid therapy (48.9% versus 40.4% and 34.5% in the overweight and normal weight groups, respectively), steroid burst therapy and short-acting ß2-agonist (SABA) use per day. Significant differences were seen with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) (53.9% versus 48.1% and 39.7% in the overweight and normal weight groups, respectively) and proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use. Bone density scores were higher in the obese group, whilst pulmonary function testing revealed a reduced FVC and raised Kco. Serum IgE levels decreased with increasing BMI and the obese group were more likely to report eczema, but less likely to have a history of nasal polyps. CONCLUSIONS: Severe asthmatics display particular characteristics according to BMI that support the view that obesity associated severe asthma may represent a distinct clinical phenotype.1Royal Brompton Hospital, London, UK;2Department of Computing, Imperial College, UK3Airways Disease, National Heart & Lung Institute, Imperial College, UK;4Centre for infection and immunity, Queen's University of Belfast, UK;5University of Leicester, UK;6The University of Manchester and University Hospital of South Manchester, UK;7Birmingham Heartlands Hospital, University of Birmingham, UK;8Gartnavel General Hospital, University of Glasgow, UK;9Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UKCorrespondence: Dr Andrew N. Menzies-Gow, Royal Brompton Hospital, Fulham Road, London SW3 6HP.

Fetal Umbilical Artery Doppler Pulsatility Index as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Children - A Long-Term Follow Up Study

Abstract Objective To determine if high umbilical artery Doppler (UAD) pulsatility index (PI) is associated with cardio-vascular (CV) risk-factors in children at age 12 years. Methods We studied 195 children at age 12 years who had had in-utero UAD studies performed at 28 weeks gestation. The children were grouped according to whether their umbilical Doppler PI was high (indicating poor feto-placental circulation) or normal. At age 12 years we assessed CV risk factors, including anthropometric measures, blood pressure, pulse wave velocity (a measure of arterial compliance), cardio-respiratory fitness and homocysteine and cholesterol serum levels. Results Compared with children with a normal UAD PI (N=88), the children (N=107) with high UAD PI had higher resting pulse rate (p=0.04), higher pulse wave velocity (p=0.046), higher serum homocysteine levels (p=0.032) and reduced arterial compliance (7.58 v 8.50 m/sec, p=0.029) using univariate analysis. These differences were not present when adjusting for cofounders was modelled. Conclusion High PI on UAD testing in-utero may be associated with increased likelihood of some cardio-vascular risk factors at age 12-years but confounding variables may be as important. Our study raises possible long-term benefits of in-utero UAD measurements.

A durability performance-index for concrete: developments in a novel test method

Implementation of both design for durability and performance-based standards and specifications are limited by the lack of rapid, simple, science based test methods for characterising the transport properties and deterioration resistance of concrete. This paper presents developments in the application of electrical property measurements as a testing methodology to evaluate the relative performance of a range of concrete mixes. The technique lends itself to in-situ monitoring thereby allowing measurements to be obtained on the as-placed concrete. Conductivity measurements are presented for concretes with and without supplementary cementitious materials (SCM’s) from demoulding up to 350 days. It is shown that electrical conductivity measurements display a continual decrease over the entire test period and attributed to pore structure refinement due to hydration and pozzolanic reaction. The term formation factor is introduced to rank concrete performance in terms of is resistance to chloride penetration.

Pupillary and visual thresholds in young children as an index of population vitamin A status

A prototype scotopic sensitivity machine was used to evaluate pupillary and visual thresholds for 295 Indonesian children aged 1-5 y, most of whom were initially vitamin A-deficient. Subjects were tested 6 and 9 mo after receiving a high dose of vitamin A. A group of 136 older children was tested at 6 mo after dosing; all subjects underwent testing at 9 mo. After testing at 9 mo, children randomly received either a second high dose of vitamin A or placebo and were tested a final time 2 wk later. Children with abnormal pupillary thresholds had significantly higher relative dose responses (RDRs) (P < 0.01) and significantly lower serum retinol values (P = 0.05) than did normal children. The mean pupillary threshold rose (eg, retinal sensitivity fell) as vitamin A status deteriorated between 6 and 9 mo after initial dosing, and was significantly different from a group of normal American children tested previously (P < 0.001). After placebo-controlled dosing, the decline in pupillary and visual thresholds (rise in retinal sensitivity) was significant for children receiving vitamin A but not for children receiving placebo.

Pupillary threshold as an index of population vitamin A status among children in India

Two hundred seven vitamin A-deficient southern Indian children aged 1-7 y (mean age: 56.9 mo) underwent testing of dark-adapted visual and pupillary thresholds in their village setting according to a previously reported protocol. One hundred thirty (62.8%) of the children also underwent serum retinol testing, and 178 (86.0%) participated in a randomized, placebo-controlled vitamin A dosing trial with pre- and postdose testing of dark-adaptation threshold. Most subjects (184 of 207, 88.9%) were able to complete pupillary testing, an objective sign requiring minimal cooperation, including a high proportion of the youngest children (72.2% of subjects aged 2 y). The proportion of children completing visual threshold testing, which requires greater understanding and cooperation, was significantly smaller than that able to complete pupillary testing (131 of 207, 63.3%; P < 0.0001, chi square). At baseline (predosing), the mean serum retinol concentration declined in linear fashion with a higher pupillary threshold (0.73 mumol/L with a score < or = 4; 0.47 mumol/L with a score > or = 8; P < 0.01). The mean pupillary threshold for these highly vitamin A-deficient Indian children (-0.622 log cd/m2) was significantly higher than that for 136 more moderately deficient Indonesian children (-0.985 log cd/m2; P < 0.001, two-sample t test) and 56 normal American children (-1.335 log cd/m2; P < 0.0001, two-sample t test). The improvement in pupillary dark-adaptation testing was not significant for children receiving vitamin A or placebo, though there was a nonsignificant trend toward greater improvement in children receiving vitamin A (P = 0.2, two-sample t test). Pupillary threshold testing represents a new, noninvasive, practical, and seemingly valid approach to assessing the vitamin A status of a moderately to severely deficient preschool population.

The Value of Full Scale Prototype Data - Testing Oyster 800 at EMEC, Orkney

This paper demonstrates the unparalleled value of full scale data which has been acquired from ocean trials of Aquamarine Power’s Oyster 800 Wave Energy Converter (WEC) at the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC), Orkney, Scotland.
High quality prototype and wave data were simultaneously recorded in over 750 distinct sea states (comprising different wave height, wave period and tidal height combinations) and include periods of operation where the hydraulic Power Take-Off (PTO) system was both pressurised (damped operation) and de-pressurised (undamped operation).
A detailed model-prototype correlation procedure is presented where the full scale prototype behaviour is compared to predictions from both experimental and numerical modelling techniques via a high temporal resolution wave-by-wave reconstruction. This unquestionably provides the definitive verification of the capabilities of such research techniques and facilitates a robust and meaningful uncertainty analysis to be performed on their outputs.
The importance of a good data capture methodology, both in terms of handling and accuracy is also presented. The techniques and procedures implemented by Aquamarine Power for real-time data management are discussed, including lessons learned on the instrumentation and infrastructure required to collect high-value data.

The Adaptiveness in Stock Markets: Testing the Stylized Facts in the DAX 30

By testing a simple asset pricing model of heterogeneous agents to characterize the power-law behavior of the DAX 30 from 1975 to 2007, we provide supporting evidence on empirical findings that investors and fund managers use combinations of fixed and switching strategies based on fundamental and technical analysis when making investment decisions. By conducting econometric analysis via Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the autocorrelation patterns, the estimates of the power-law decay indices, (FI)GARCH parameters, and tail index of the model match closely the corresponding estimates for the DAX 30. A mechanism analysis based on the calibrated model provides further insights into the explanatory power of heterogeneous agent models.