PROGNOSTIC FACTORS PREDICTING FUNCTIONAL OUTCOME AT FOUR MONTHS FOLLOWING ACUTE ANKLE SPRAIN

PROGNOSTIC FACTORS PREDICTING FUNCTIONAL OUTCOME AT FOUR MONTHS FOLLOWING ACUTE ANKLE SPRAINBleakley C.M.1, O'Connor S.R.1, Tully M.A.2, Rocke L.G.3, MacAuley D.C.1, Bradbury I.4, Keegan S.4, McDonough S.M.11University of Ulster, Health & Rehabilitation Sciences Research Institute, Newtownabbey, United Kingdom, 2Queen's University, UKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health (NI), Belfast, United Kingdom, 3Royal Victoria Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Belfast, United Kingdom, 4Frontier Science (Scotland), Kincraig, Inverness-shire, United KingdomPurpose: To identify clinically relevant factors assessed following acute ankle sprain that predict functional recovery at four months post-injury.Relevance: Ankle sprains are one of the most common musculoskeletal injuries with an estimated 5000 new cases occurring each day in the United Kingdom. In the acute phase, ankle sprains may be associated with pain and loss of function. In the longer-term there is a risk of residual problems including chronic pain or reinjury. Few studies have sought to examine factors associated with a poor long-term prognosis.Participants: 101 patients (Age: Mean (SD) 25.9 (7.9) years; Body Mass Index (BMI): 25.3 (3.5) kg/m2) with an acute grade 1 or 2 ankle sprain attending an accident and emergency department or sports injury clinic. Exclusion criteria included complete (grade 3) rupture of the ankle ligament complex, bony ankle injury or multiple injuries.Methods: Participants were allocated as part of a randomised controlled trial to an accelerated intervention incorporating intermittent ice and early therapeutic exercise or a standard protection, rest, ice, compression, and elevation intervention for one week. Treatment was then standardised in both groups and consisted of ankle rehabilitation exercises focusing on muscle strengthening, neuromuscular training, and sports specific functional exercises for a period of approximately four to six weeks. On initial assessment age, gender, mechanism of injury, presence of an audible pop or snap and the presence of contact during the injury were recorded. The following factors were also recorded at baseline and at one and four weeks post-injury: weight-bearing dorsi-flexion test, lateral hop test, presence of medial pain on palpation and a positive impingement sign. Functional status was assessed using the Karlsson score at baseline, at week four and at four months. Reinjury rates were recorded throughout the intervention phase and at four months.Analysis: A mixed between-within subjects analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the effect of each factor on functional status at week four and at four months. Significance was set at a Bonferroni adjusted level of 0.0125 (0.05/4).Results: Eighty-five participants (84%) were available at final follow-up assessment. Pain on weight-bearing dorsi-flexion and lateral hop tests at week four were both associated with a lower functional score at four months post-injury (P = 0.011 and P = 0.001). No other significant interactions were observed at any other timepoint (baseline or week one). There were only two reinjuries within the four month follow-up period with a further two reported at approximately six months post-injury. We were therefore unable to determine whether any factors were associated with an increased risk of reinjury.Conclusions: Potential prognostic factors on initial or early examination after acute ankle sprain did not help predict functional recovery at four months post-injury. However, pain on weight-bearing dorsi-flexion and lateral hop tests observed at four weeks were associated with a slower rate of recovery.Implications: Some clinical tests may help identify patients at risk of poor functional recovery after acute ankle sprain. However, further work is required to examine factors which may be predictive on initial assessment.Key-words: 1. Prognostic factors 2. Recovery 3. Ankle sprainFunding acknowledgements: Physiotherapy Research Foundation, Chartered Society of Physiotherapy, Strategic Priority Fund; Department of Employment and Learning, Northern Ireland.Ethics approval: Office for Research Ethics Committee (UK).

The Clinical Impact and Molecular Biology of del(17p) in Multiple Myeloma Treated with Conventional or Thalidomide-Based Therapy

Hemizygous deletion of 17p (del(17p)) has been identified as a variable associated with poor prognosis in myeloma, although its impact in the context of thalidomide therapy is not well described. The clinical outcome of 85 myeloma patients with del(17p) treated in a clinical trial incorporating both conventional and thalidomide-based induction therapies was examined. The clinical impact of deletion, low expression, and mutation of TP53 was also determined. Patients with del(17p) did not have inferior response rates compared to patients without del(17p), but, despite this, del(17p) was associated with impaired overall survival (OS) (median OS 26.6 vs. 48.5 months, P <0.001). Within the del(17p) group, thalidomide induction therapy was associated with improved response rates compared to conventional therapy, but there was no impact on OS. Thalidomide maintenance was associated with impaired OS, although our analysis suggests that this effect may have been due to confounding variables. A minimally deleted region on 17p13.1 involving 17 genes was identified, of which only TP53 and SAT2 were underexpressed. TP53 was mutated in <1% in patients without del(17p) and in 27% of patients with del(17p). The higher TP53 mutation rate in samples with del(17p) suggests a role for TP53 in these clinical outcomes. In conclusion, del(17p) defined a patient group associated with short survival in myeloma, and although thalidomide induction therapy was associated with improved response rates, it did not impact OS, suggesting that alternative therapeutic strategies are required for this group. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Incomplete DJH rearrangements as a novel tumor target for minimal residual disease quantitation in multiple myeloma using real-time PCR.

The hypervariable regions of immunoglobulin heavy-chain (IgH) rearrangements provide a specific tumor marker in multiple myeloma (MM). Recently, real-time PCR assays have been developed in order to quantify the number of tumor cells after treatment. However, these strategies are hampered by the presence of somatic hypermutation (SH) in VDJH rearrangements from multiple myeloma (MM) patients, which causes mismatches between primers and/or probes and the target, leading to a nonaccurate quantification of tumor cells. Our group has recently described a 60% incidence of incomplete DJH rearrangements in MM patients, with no or very low rates of SH. In this study, we compare the efficiency of a real-time PCR approach for the analysis of both complete and incomplete IgH rearrangements in eight MM patients using only three JH consensus probes. We were able to design an allele-specific oligonucleotide for both the complete and incomplete rearrangement in all patients. DJH rearrangements fulfilled the criteria of effectiveness for real-time PCR in all samples (ie no unspecific amplification, detection of less than 10 tumor cells within 10(5) polyclonal background and correlation coefficients of standard curves higher than 0.98). By contrast, only three out of eight VDJH rearrangements fulfilled these criteria. Further analyses showed that the remaining five VDJH rearrangements carried three or more somatic mutations in the probe and primer sites, leading to a dramatic decrease in the melting temperature. These results support the use of incomplete DJH rearrangements instead of complete somatically mutated VDJH rearrangements for investigation of minimal residual disease in multiple myeloma.

Joint Analysis of Multiple Algorithms and Performance Measures

There has been an increasing interest in the development of new methods using Pareto optimality to deal with multi-objective criteria (for example, accuracy and time complexity). Once one has developed an approach to a problem of interest, the problem is then how to compare it with the state of art. In machine learning, algorithms are typically evaluated by comparing their performance on different data sets by means of statistical tests. Standard tests used for this purpose are able to consider jointly neither performance measures nor multiple competitors at once. The aim of this paper is to resolve these issues by developing statistical procedures that are able to account for multiple competing measures at the same time and to compare multiple algorithms altogether. In particular, we develop two tests: a frequentist procedure based on the generalized likelihood-ratio test and a Bayesian procedure based on a multinomial-Dirichlet conjugate model. We further extend them by discovering conditional independences among measures to reduce the number of parameters of such models, as usually the number of studied cases is very reduced in such comparisons. Data from a comparison among general purpose classifiers is used to show a practical application of our tests.

Secure Multiple Amplify-and-Forward Relaying with Co-Channel Interference

We investigate the impact of co-channel interference on the security performance of multiple amplify-and-forward (AF) relaying networks, where N intermediate AF relays assist the data transmission from the source to the destination. The relays are corrupted by multiple co-channel interferers, and the information transmitted from the relays to destination can be overheard by the eavesdropper. In order to deal with the interference and wiretap, the best out of N relays is selected for security enhancement. To this end, we derive a novel lower bound on the secrecy outage probability (SOP), which is then utilized to present two best relay selection criteria, based on the instantaneous and statistical channel information of the interfering links. For these criteria and the conventional maxmin criterion, we quantify the impact of co-channel interference and relay selection by deriving the lower bound on the SOP. Furthermore, we derive the asymptotic SOP for each criterion, to explicitly reveal the impact of transmit power allocation among interferers on the secrecy performance, which offers valuable insights into practical design. We demonstrate that all selection criteria achieve full secrecy diversity order N, while the proposed in this paper two criteria outperform the conventional max-min scheme.