An information approach to international currencies

Models of currency competition focus on the 5% of trading attributable to balance-of-payments flows. We introduce an information approach that focuses on the other 95%. Important departures from traditional models arise when transactions convey information. First, prices reveal different information depending on whether trades are direct or though vehicle currencies. Second, missing markets arise due to insufficiently symmetric information, rather than insufficient transactions scale. Third, the indeterminacy of equilibrium that arises in traditional models is resolved: currency trade patterns no longer concentrate arbitrarily on market size. Empirically, we provide a first analysis of transactions across a full market triangle: the euro, yen and US dollar. The estimated transaction effects on prices support the information approach.

The International Regulatory Regime on Capital Flows

Capital controls and exchange restrictions are used to restrict international capital flows during economic crises. This paper looks at the legal implications of these restrictions and explores the current international regulatory framework applicable to international capital movements and current payments. It shows how international capital flows suffer from the lack of a comprehensive and coherent regulatory framework that would harmonize the patchwork of
multilateral, regional, and bilateral treaties that currently regulate this issue. These treaties include the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF Articles), the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), free-trade agreements, the European Union treaty, bilateral investment treaties, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Code of Liberalization of Capital Movements (OECD Code of Capital Movement). Each
of these instruments regulate differently capital movements with little coordination with other areas of law. This situation sometimes leads to regulatory overlaps and conflict between different sources of law. Given the strong links between capital movements and trade in services, this paper pays particular attention to the rules of the GATS on capital flows and discusses the policy space available in the GATS for restricting capital flows in times of crisis.

Human Papillomavirus and Oral Cancer: the International Agency for Research on Cancer Multicenter Study

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV), the causal agent of cervical cancer, appears to be involved in the etiology of cancer of the oral cavity and oropharynx. To investigate these associations, we conducted a multicenter case-control study of cancer of the oral cavity and oropharynx in nine countries. Methods: We recruited 1670 case patients (1415 with cancer of the oral cavity and 255 with cancer of the oropharynx) and 1732 control subjects and obtained an interview, oral exfoliated cells, and blood from all participants and fresh biopsy specimens from case patients. HPV DNA was detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Antibodies against HPV16 L1, E6, and E7 proteins in plasma were detected with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Multivariable models were used for case-control and case-case comparisons. Results: HPV DNA was detected in biopsy specimens of 3.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]=2.5% to 5.3%) of 766 cancers of the oral cavity with valid PCR results and 18.3% (95% CI=12.0% to 24.7%) of 142 cancers of the oropharynx (oropharynx and tonsil combined) with valid PCR results. HPV DNA in cancer biopsy specimens was detected less frequently among tobacco smokers and paan chewers and more frequently among subjects who reported more than one sexual partner or who practiced oral sex. HPV16 DNA was found in 94.7% of HPV DNA-positive case patients. HPV DNA in exfoliated cells was not associated with cancer risk or with HPV DNA detection in biopsy specimens. Antibodies against HPV16 L1 were associated with risk for cancers of the oral cavity (odds ratio [OR]=1.5, 95% CI=1.1 to 2.1) and the oropharynx (OR=3.5, 95% CI=2.1 to 5.9). Antibodies against HPV16 E6 or E7 were also associated with risk for cancers of the oral cavity (OR=2.9, 95% CI=1.7 to 4.8) and the oropharynx (OR=9.2, 95% CI=4.8 to 17.7). Conclusions: HPV appears to play an etiologic role in many cancers of the oropharynx and possibly a small subgroup of cancers of the oral cavity. The most common HPV type in genital cancers (HPV16) was also the most common in these tumors. The mechanism of transmission of HPV to the oral cavity warrants further investigation.