The Great Transition:Climate, disease and society in the late-medieval world

In the fourteenth century the Old World witnessed a series of profound and abrupt changes in the trajectory of long-established historical trends. Trans-continental networks of exchange fractured and an era of economic contraction and demographic decline dawned from which Latin Christendom would not begin to emerge until its voyages of discovery at the end of the fifteenth century. In a major new study of this 'Great Transition', assessment is made of the contributions of commercial recession, war, climate change,and eruption of the Black Death to a far-reaching reversal of fortunes which spared no part of Eurasia. A wealth of new historical, palaeoecological and biological evidence are synthesised, including estimates of national income, reconstructions of past climates. and genetic analysis of DNA extracted from the teeth of plague victims, to provide a fresh account of the creation, collapse and realignment of western Europe's late-medieval commercial economy.

Aged embankment imaging and assessment using surface waves

Rapid, non-intrusive surface wave surveys provide depth profiles from which ground models can be generated for use in earthwork condition assessment. Stiffness throughout earthworks controls the behaviour under static and dynamic loads, and characterising heterogeneity is of interest in relation to the stability of engineered backfill and life-cycle deterioration in aged utility and transportation infrastructure. Continuous surface wave methods were used to identify interfaces between fine- and coarse-grained fill in an end-tipped embankment along the Great Central Railway in Nottinghamshire, UK. Multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) methods were used to characterise subsurface voiding in a canal embankment along the Knottingley and Goole canal near Eggborough, Yorkshire. MASW methods are currently being used to study extreme weather impacts on the stability of a highplasticity clay embankment along the Gloucestershire–Warwickshire railway near Laverton. Optimal results were obtained using equipment capable of generating and detecting over wide frequency ranges.

Resolving conflict in bipolar societies: The fate of political settlements in Fiji and Northern Ireland

Ethnically divided societies that might be described as ‘balanced bicommunal’ (where there are two communities, each of which comes close to representing half of the population) pose a particular challenge to conventional principles of collective decision-making, and commonly threaten political stability. This article analyses the experience of two such societies – Northern Ireland and Fiji – with a view to exploring whether there are common processes in the route by which political stability has been pursued. We assess the manner in which a distinctive relationship with Great Britain and its political culture has interacted with local conditions to produce a highly competitive, bipolar party system. This leads to consideration of the devices that have been adopted in an effort to bridge the gap between the communities: the Fiji constitution as amended in 1997, and Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement of 1998. We focus, in particular, on the use of unusual (preferential voting) formulas for the election of parliamentarians and of an inclusive principle in the selection of ministers, and consider the contribution of these institutional devices to the attainment of political stability. We find that, in both cases, the intervention of forces from outside the political system had a decisive impact, though in very different ways. In addition to being underpinned by solid institutional design, for political settlements to work effectively, some minimal level of trust between rival elites is required.