The Great Transition:Climate, disease and society in the late-medieval world

In the fourteenth century the Old World witnessed a series of profound and abrupt changes in the trajectory of long-established historical trends. Trans-continental networks of exchange fractured and an era of economic contraction and demographic decline dawned from which Latin Christendom would not begin to emerge until its voyages of discovery at the end of the fifteenth century. In a major new study of this 'Great Transition', assessment is made of the contributions of commercial recession, war, climate change,and eruption of the Black Death to a far-reaching reversal of fortunes which spared no part of Eurasia. A wealth of new historical, palaeoecological and biological evidence are synthesised, including estimates of national income, reconstructions of past climates. and genetic analysis of DNA extracted from the teeth of plague victims, to provide a fresh account of the creation, collapse and realignment of western Europe's late-medieval commercial economy.

Antimicrobial susceptibility of Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from cystic fibrosis patients through Northern Europe

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in cystic fibrosis patients. This study compares the antimicrobial susceptibility of 153 P. aeruginosa isolates from the United Kingdom (UK) (n=58), Belgium (n=44), and Germany (n=51) collected from 120 patients during routine visits over the 2006-2012 period. MICs were measured by broth microdilution. Genes encoding extended spectrum β-lactamases (ESBL), metallo-β-lactamases and carbapenemases were detected by PCR. Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis and Multi-Locus Sequence Typing were performed on isolates resistant to ≥ 3 antibiotic classes among penicillins/cephalosporins, carbapenems, fluoroquinolones, aminoglycosides, polymyxins. Based on EUCAST/CLSI breakpoints, susceptibility was ≤ 30%/≤ 40% (penicillins, ceftazidime, amikacin, ciprofloxacin), 44-48%/48-63% (carbapenems), 72%/72% (tobramycin), and 92%/78% (colistin) independently of patient's age. Sixty percent of strains were multidrug resistant (MDR; European Centre for Disease prevention and Control criteria). Genes encoding ESBL (most prevalent BEL, PER, GES, VEB, CTX-M, TEM, SHV, and OXA), metallo β-lactamases (VIM, IMP, NDM), or carbapenemases (OXA-48, KPC) were not detected. The Liverpool Epidemic Strain (LES) was prevalent in UK isolates only (75% of MDR isolates). Four MDR ST958 isolates were found spread over the three countries. The other MDR clones were evidenced in ≤ 3 isolates and localized in a single country. A new sequence type (ST2254) was discovered in one MDR isolate in Germany. Clonal and non-clonal isolates with different susceptibility profiles were found in 21 patients. Thus, resistance and MDR are highly prevalent in routine isolates from 3 countries, with carbapenem (meropenem), tobramycin and colistin remaining the most active drugs.

The association between spastic Cerebral Palsy, intellectual impairment, and gestational age: results from the Northern Ireland Cerebral Palsy Register

Background
Studies suggest a complex relationship between Cerebral Palsy sub-types, severity of impairment, and risk factors such as gestational age. To investigate these relationships, we conducted analyses on over 1,100 children included in the Northern Ireland Cerebral Palsy Register (NICPR) whose clinical CP subtype was Bilateral Spastic or Spastic Hemiplegia, and for whom information was available on the relevant variables.
Methods
We tested for the association between Bilateral and Hemiplegia subtypes, severe intellectual impairment, and gestational age (term; moderately preterm; very or extremely preterm) while controlling for gender, socio-economic deprivation, year of birth, and birth weight (using a standardized birth-weight score based on deviance from the birth weight average within each gestational age band). Severity of intellectual impairment was dichotomised (severe intellectual delay vs. moderate or no delay).
Results
Logistic regressions indicated a good fit of the model, and the predictors included explained approximately 19% of variability in the outcome. The results indicated a strong association between the Bilateral subtype and severe intellectual impairment: compared to children with the Hemiplegia subtype, those with Bilateral Spastic CP displayed a 10-fold increase in the odds of severe intellectual impairment. The results revealed a significant interaction between CP subtype and gestational age: for the Bilateral CP subtype, being born at term was associated with increased probability of severe intellectual impairment.
Discussion
Results are consistent with other studies (Hemming et al., 2008) in indicating that the likelihood of cognitive impairments increases with increasing gestational age at delivery of Bilateral Spastic CP children. The results are discussed in light of hypotheses that suggest the brain might be able to reorganise and compensate the effects of lesions and injuries when it is still less developed.

Resolving conflict in bipolar societies: The fate of political settlements in Fiji and Northern Ireland

Ethnically divided societies that might be described as ‘balanced bicommunal’ (where there are two communities, each of which comes close to representing half of the population) pose a particular challenge to conventional principles of collective decision-making, and commonly threaten political stability. This article analyses the experience of two such societies – Northern Ireland and Fiji – with a view to exploring whether there are common processes in the route by which political stability has been pursued. We assess the manner in which a distinctive relationship with Great Britain and its political culture has interacted with local conditions to produce a highly competitive, bipolar party system. This leads to consideration of the devices that have been adopted in an effort to bridge the gap between the communities: the Fiji constitution as amended in 1997, and Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement of 1998. We focus, in particular, on the use of unusual (preferential voting) formulas for the election of parliamentarians and of an inclusive principle in the selection of ministers, and consider the contribution of these institutional devices to the attainment of political stability. We find that, in both cases, the intervention of forces from outside the political system had a decisive impact, though in very different ways. In addition to being underpinned by solid institutional design, for political settlements to work effectively, some minimal level of trust between rival elites is required.