Cartographic veracity in medieval mapping: analyzing geographical variation in the Gough Map of Great Britain

This article explores statistical approaches for assessing the relative accuracy of medieval mapping. It focuses on one particular map, the Gough Map of Great Britain. This is an early and remarkable example of a medieval “national” map covering Plantagenet Britain. Conventionally dated to c. 1360, the map shows the position of places in and coastal outline of Great Britain to a considerable degree of spatial accuracy. In this article, aspects of the map's content are subjected to a systematic analysis to identify geographical variations in the map's veracity, or truthfulness. It thus contributes to debates among historical geographers and cartographic historians on the nature of medieval maps and mapping and, in particular, questions of their distortion of geographic space. Based on a newly developed digital version of the Gough Map, several regression-based approaches are used here to explore the degree and nature of spatial distortion in the Gough Map. This demonstrates that not only are there marked variations in the positional accuracy of places shown on the map between regions (i.e., England, Scotland, and Wales), but there are also fine-scale geographical variations in the spatial accuracy of the map within these regions. The article concludes by suggesting that the map was constructed using a range of sources, and that the Gough Map is a composite of multiscale representations of places in Great Britain. The article details a set of approaches that could be transferred to other contexts and add value to historic maps by enhancing understanding of their contents.

Beyond the National Resource Privilege: towards an International Court of the Environment

The national resource privilege, which holds that states are allowed to control all the natural resources found in their territory, is a cornerstone of international politics. Supporters of the national resource privilege claim that without the privilege states would fail to be sovereign and self-determining entities which provide for the needs of their citizens. However, as this paper shows the case is not as simple as that. In fact, control over resources must be carefully unpacked. Doing so shows that states do not require full control over all resources found in their territory in order to be sovereign. Moreover, sovereignty and self-determination come with a set of responsibilities and duties attached. Based on these observations the paper will sketch the contours of an alternative resource governance scheme built around the idea of an International Court of the Environment.

PREDICTING THE SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE - TEMPERATURE IN GREAT-BRITAIN

1. The prediction and mapping of climate in areas between climate stations is of increasing importance in ecology.

2. Four categories of model, simple interpolation, thin plate splines, multiple linear regression and mixed spline-regression, were tested for their ability to predict the spatial distribution of temperature on the British mainland. The models were tested by external cross-verification.

3. The British distribution of mean daily temperature was predicted with the greatest accuracy by using a mixed model: a thin plate spline fitted to the surface of the country, after correction of the data by a selection from 16 independent topographical variables (such as altitude, distance from the sea, slope and topographic roughness), chosen by multiple regression from a digital terrain model (DTM) of the country.

4. The next most accurate method was a pure multiple regression model using the DTM. Both regression and thin plate spline models based on a few variables (latitude, longitude and altitude) only were comparatively unsatisfactory, but some rather simple methods of surface interpolation (such as bilinear interpolation after correction to sea level) gave moderately satisfactory results. Differences between the methods seemed to be dependent largely on their ability to model the effect of the sea on land temperatures.

5. Prediction of temperature by the best methods was greater than 95% accurate in all months of the year, as shown by the correlation between the predicted and actual values. The predicted temperatures were calculated at real altitudes, not subject to sea-level correction.

6. A minimum of just over 30 temperature recording stations would generate a satisfactory surface, provided the stations were well spaced.

7. Maps of mean daily temperature, using the best overall methods are provided; further important variables, such as continentality and length of growing season, were also mapped. Many of these are believed to be the first detailed representations at real altitude.

8. The interpolated monthly temperature surfaces are available on disk.

Drivers of inequality in disability-free expectancy at birth and age 85 across space and time in Great Britain

Background: Although mortality and health inequalities at birth have increased both geographically and in socioeconomic terms, little is known about inequalities at age 85, the fastest growing sector of the population in Great Britain (GB).

Aim: To determine whether trends and drivers of inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 85 between 1991 and 2001 are the same as those at birth.

Methods: DFLE at birth and age 85 for 1991 and 2001 by gender were calculated for each local authority in GB using the Sullivan method. Regression modelling was used to identify area characteristics (rurality, deprivation, social class composition, ethnicity, unemployment, retirement migration) that could explain inequalities in LE and DFLE.

Results: Similar to values at birth, LE and DFLE at age 85 both increased between 1991 and 2001 (though DFLE increased less than LE) and gaps across local areas widened (and more for DFLE than LE). The significantly greater increases in LE and DFLE at birth for less-deprived compared with more-deprived areas were still partly present at age 85. Considering all factors, inequalities in DFLE at birth were largely driven by social class composition and unemployment rate, but these associations appear to be less influential at age 85.

Conclusions: Inequalities between areas in LE and DFLE at birth and age 85 have increased over time though factors explaining inequalities at birth (mainly social class and unemployment rates) appear less important for inequalities at age 85.

Family Economic Vulnerability & the Great Recession: An Analysis of the First two Waves of the Growing Up in Ireland Study

In this paper we make use of the first and second waves of the 2008 and 1998 cohorts of the Growing Up in Ireland study, to develop a multidimensional and dynamic approach to understanding the impact on families and children in Ireland of the Great Recession. Economic vulnerability is operationalised as involving a distinctive risk profile in relation to relative income, household joblessness and economic stress. We find that the recession was associated with a significant increase in levels of economic vulnerability and changing risk profiles involving a more prominent role for economic stress for both the 2008 and 1998 cohorts. The factors affecting vulnerability outcomes were broadly similar for both cohorts. Persistent economic vulnerability was significantly associated with lone parenthood, particularly for those with more than one child, lower levels of Primary Care Giver (PCG) education and to a lesser extent younger age of PCG at child’s birth, number of children and a parent leaving or dying. Similar factors were associated with transient vulnerability in the first wave but the magnitude of the effects was significantly weaker particularly in relation to lone parenthood and level of education of the PCG. For entry into vulnerability the impact of these factors was again substantially weaker than for persistent and transient vulnerability indicating a significantly greater degree of socio-economic heterogeneity among the group that became vulnerable during the recession. The findings raise policy and political problems that go beyond those associated with catering for groups that have tended to be characterized by high dependence on social welfare.