Graphical determination of network limits for wind power integration

A graphical method is presented for determining the capability of individual system nodes to accommodate wind power generation. The method is based upon constructing a capability chart for each node at which a wind farm is to be connected. The capability chart defines the domain of allowable power injections at the candidate node, subject to constraints imposed by voltage limits, voltage stability and equipment capability limits being satisfied. The chart is first derived for a two-bus model, before being extended to a multi-node power system. The graphical method is employed to derive the chart for a two-node system, as well as its application to a multi-node power system, considering the IEEE 30-bus test system as a case study. Although the proposed method is derived with the intention of determining the wind farm capacity to be connected at a specific node, it can be used for the analysis of a PQ bus loading as well as generation.

Does the level of graphical detail of a virtual handball thrower influence a goal-keeper's motor response?

The authors investigated how different levels of detail (LODs) of a virtual throwing action can influence a handball goalkeeper's motor response. Goalkeepers attempted to stop a virtual ball emanating from five different graphical LODs of the same virtual throwing action. The five levels of detail were: a textured reference level (L0), a non-textured level (L1), a wire-frame level (L2), a point-light-display (PLD) representation (L3) and a PLD level with reduced ball size (L4). For each motor response made by the goalkeeper we measured and analyzed the time to respond (TTR), the percentage of successful motor responses, the distance between the ball and the closest limb (when the stopping motion was incorrect) and the kinematics of the motion. Results showed that TTR, percentage of successful motor responses and distance with the closest limb were not significantly different for any of the five different graphical LODs. However the kinematics of the motion revealed that the trajectory of the stopping limb was significantly different when comparing the L1 and L3 levels, and when comparing the L1 and L4 levels. These differences in the control of the goalkeeper's actions suggests that the different level of information available in the PLD representations ( L3 and L4) are causing the goalkeeper to adopt different motor strategies to control the approach of their limb to stop the ball.

Influence of the Graphical Levels of Detail of a Virtual Thrower on the Perception of the Movement

Virtual reality has a number of advantages for analyzing sports interactions such as the standardization of experimental conditions, stereoscopic vision, and complete control of animated humanoid movement. Nevertheless, in order to be useful for sports applications, accurate perception of simulated movement in the virtual sports environment is essential. This perception depends on parameters of the synthetic character such as the number of degrees of freedom of its skeleton or the levels of detail (LOD) of its graphical representation. This study focuses on the influence of this latter parameter on the perception of the movement. In order to evaluate it, this study analyzes the judgments of immersed handball goalkeepers that play against a graphically modified virtual thrower. Five graphical representations of the throwing action were defined: a textured reference level (L0), a nontextured level (L1), a wire-frame level (L2), a moving point light display (MLD) level with a normal-sized ball (L3), and a MLD level where the ball is represented by a point of light (L4). The results show that judgments made by goalkeepers in the L4 condition are significantly less accurate than in all the other conditions (p

The Conditional Phase-type distribution: Graphical Models for Continuous Non-Normal Data:The Conditional Phase-type (C-Ph) distribution:

Conditional Gaussian (CG) distributions allow the inclusion of both discrete and continuous variables in a model assuming that the continuous variable is normally distributed. However, the CG distributions have proved to be unsuitable for survival data which tends to be highly skewed. A new method of analysis is required to take into account continuous variables which are not normally distributed. The aim of this paper is to introduce the more appropriate conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution for representing a continuous non-normal variable while also incorporating the causal information in the form of a Bayesian network.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for MAP Inference in Graphical Models

We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios.

Software Products for Modelling and Simulation in Materials Science

Models and software products have been developed for modelling, simulation and prediction of different correlations in materials science, including 1. the correlation between processing parameters and properties in titanium alloys and ?-titanium aluminides; 2. time–temperature–transformation (TTT) diagrams for titanium alloys; 3. corrosion resistance of titanium alloys; 4. surface hardness and microhardness profile of nitrocarburised layers; 5. fatigue stress life (S–N) diagrams for Ti–6Al–4V alloys. The programs are based on trained artificial neural networks. For each particular case appropriate combination of inputs and outputs is chosen. Very good performances of the models are achieved. Graphical user interfaces (GUI) are created for easy use of the models. In addition interactive text versions are developed. The models designed are combined and integrated in software package that is built up on a modular fashion. The software products are available in versions for different platforms including Windows 95/98/2000/NT, UNIX and Apple Macintosh. Description of the software products is given, to demonstrate that they are convenient and powerful tools for practical applications in solving various problems in materials science. Examples for optimisation of the alloy compositions, processing parameters and working conditions are illustrated. An option for use of the software in materials selection procedure is described.

Summary statistics, educational achievement gaps and the ecological fallacy

Summary statistics continue to play an important role in identifying and monitoring patterns and trends in educational inequalities between differing groups of pupils over time. However, this article argues that their uncritical use can also encourage the labelling of whole groups of pupils as ‘underachievers’ or ‘overachievers’ as the findings of group-level data are simply applied to individual group members, a practice commonly termed the ‘ecological fallacy’. Some of the adverse consequences of this will be outlined in relation to current debates concerning gender and ethnic differences in educational attainment. It will be argued that one way of countering this uncritical use of summary statistics and the ecological fallacy that it tends to encourage, is to make much more use of the principles and methods of what has been termed ‘exploratory data analysis’. Such an approach is illustrated through a secondary analysis of data from the Youth Cohort Study of England and Wales, focusing on gender and ethnic differences in educational attainment. It will be shown that, by placing an emphasis on the graphical display of data and on encouraging researchers to describe those data more qualitatively, such an approach represents an essential addition to the use of simple summary statistics and helps to avoid the limitations associated with them.

Mathematical prerequisites for learning statistics in Psychology: Assessing core skills of numeracy and mathematical reasoning among undergraduates.

This study sought to extend earlier work by Mulhern and Wylie (2004) to investigate a UK-wide sample of psychology undergraduates. A total of 890 participants from eight universities across the UK were tested on six broadly defined components of mathematical thinking relevant to the teaching of statistics in psychology - calculation, algebraic reasoning, graphical interpretation, proportionality and ratio, probability and sampling, and estimation. Results were consistent with Mulhern and Wylie's (2004) previously reported findings. Overall, participants across institutions exhibited marked deficiencies in many aspects of mathematical thinking. Results also revealed significant gender differences on calculation, proportionality and ratio, and estimation. Level of qualification in mathematics was found to predict overall performance. Analysis of the nature and content of errors revealed consistent patterns of misconceptions in core mathematical knowledge , likely to hamper the learning of statistics.

Computerised Diagnostic Decision Support System for the Classification of Pre-Invasive Cervical Squamous Lesions.

Previous studies have revealed considerable interobserver and intraobserver variation in the histological classification of preinvasive cervical squamous lesions. The aim of the present study was to develop a decision support system (DSS) for the histological interpretation of these lesions. Knowledge and uncertainty were represented in the form of a Bayesian belief network that permitted the storage of diagnostic knowledge and, for a given case, the collection of evidence in a cumulative manner that provided a final probability for the possible diagnostic outcomes. The network comprised 8 diagnostic histological features (evidence nodes) that were each independently linked to the diagnosis (decision node) by a conditional probability matrix. Diagnostic outcomes comprised normal; koilocytosis; and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1, CIN II, and CIN M. For each evidence feature, a set of images was recorded that represented the full spectrum of change for that feature. The system was designed to be interactive in that the histopathologist was prompted to enter evidence into the network via a specifically designed graphical user interface (i-Path Diagnostics, Belfast, Northern Ireland). Membership functions were used to derive the relative likelihoods for the alternative feature outcomes, the likelihood vector was entered into the network, and the updated diagnostic belief was computed for the diagnostic outcomes and displayed. A cumulative probability graph was generated throughout the diagnostic process and presented on screen. The network was tested on 50 cervical colposcopic biopsy specimens, comprising 10 cases each of normal, koilocytosis, CIN 1, CIN H, and CIN III. These had been preselected by a consultant gynecological pathologist. Using conventional morphological assessment, the cases were classified on 2 separate occasions by 2 consultant and 2 junior pathologists. The cases were also then classified using the DSS on 2 occasions by the 4 pathologists and by 2 medical students with no experience in cervical histology. Interobserver and intraobserver agreement using morphology and using the DSS was calculated with K statistics. Intraobserver reproducibility using conventional unaided diagnosis was reasonably good (kappa range, 0.688 to 0.861), but interobserver agreement was poor (kappa range, 0.347 to 0.747). Using the DSS improved overall reproducibility between individuals. Using the DSS, however, did not enhance the diagnostic performance of junior pathologists when comparing their DSS-based diagnosis against an experienced consultant. However, the generation of a cumulative probability graph also allowed a comparison of individual performance, how individual features were assessed in the same case, and how this contributed to diagnostic disagreement between individuals. Diagnostic features such as nuclear pleomorphism were shown to be particularly problematic and poorly reproducible. DSSs such as this therefore not only have a role to play in enhancing decision making but also in the study of diagnostic protocol, education, self-assessment, and quality control. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An automated machine vision system for the histological grading of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)

The histological grading of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) remains subjective, resulting in inter- and intra-observer variation and poor reproducibility in the grading of cervical lesions. This study has attempted to develop an objective grading system using automated machine vision. The architectural features of cervical squamous epithelium are quantitatively analysed using a combination of computerized digital image processing and Delaunay triangulation analysis; 230 images digitally captured from cases previously classified by a gynaecological pathologist included normal cervical squamous epithelium (n = 30), koilocytosis (n = 46), CIN 1 (n = 52), CIN 2 (n = 56), and CIN 3 (n=46). Intra- and inter-observer variation had kappa values of 0.502 and 0.415, respectively. A machine vision system was developed in KS400 macro programming language to segment and mark the centres of all nuclei within the epithelium. By object-oriented analysis of image components, the positional information of nuclei was used to construct a Delaunay triangulation mesh. Each mesh was analysed to compute triangle dimensions including the mean triangle area, the mean triangle edge length, and the number of triangles per unit area, giving an individual quantitative profile of measurements for each case. Discriminant analysis of the geometric data revealed the significant discriminatory variables from which a classification score was derived. The scoring system distinguished between normal and CIN 3 in 98.7% of cases and between koilocytosis and CIN 1 in 76.5% of cases, but only 62.3% of the CIN cases were classified into the correct group, with the CIN 2 group showing the highest rate of misclassification. Graphical plots of triangulation data demonstrated the continuum of morphological change from normal squamous epithelium to the highest grade of CIN, with overlapping of the groups originally defined by the pathologists. This study shows that automated location of nuclei in cervical biopsies using computerized image analysis is possible. Analysis of positional information enables quantitative evaluation of architectural features in CIN using Delaunay triangulation meshes, which is effective in the objective classification of CIN. This demonstrates the future potential of automated machine vision systems in diagnostic histopathology. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Evidence for two-phase regions in BST thin films from capacitance-voltage data

The Curie-Weiss plots of reciprocal dielectric constant versus temperature, in Ba0.5Sr0.5TiO3 films grown onto SrRuO3 lower electrodes by pulsed-laser deposition, show two minima below film thicknesses of 280 nm. This double minima implies possible mixed phases in the thin films. A graphical plot of capacitance for decreasing dc voltage versus that of increasing dc voltage shows a well-defined triangular shape for both Pb(Zr0.4Ti0.6)O-3 and SrBi2Ta2O9 thin films. However, for a 175-nm-thick Ba0.5Sr0.5TiO3 thin film, the plot shows an overlapping of two triangles, suggesting mixed phases. This graphical method appears to be effective in detecting structural subtleties in ferroelectric capacitors.

HBrowse: a GRACE tool for browsing R-matrix H-files

An H-file is used to convey information from the inner-region to the outer-region in R-matrix computations. HBrowse is a workstation tool for displaying a graphical abstraction of a local or remote R-matrix H-file. While it is published as a stand-alone tool for post-processing the output from R-matrix inner-region computations it also forms part of the Graphical R-matrix Atomic Collision Environment (GRACE), HBrowse is written in C and OSF/Motif for the UNIX operating system. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.