On the Assumption of Bivariate Normality in Selection Models: A Copula Approach Applied to Estimating HIV Prevalence

Background: Heckman-type selection models have been used to control HIV prevalence estimates for selection bias when participation in HIV testing and HIV status are associated after controlling for observed variables. These models typically rely on the strong assumption that the error terms in the participation and the outcome equations that comprise the model are distributed as bivariate normal.
Methods: We introduce a novel approach for relaxing the bivariate normality assumption in selection models using copula functions. We apply this method to estimating HIV prevalence and new confidence intervals (CI) in the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) by using interviewer identity as the selection variable that predicts participation (consent to test) but not the outcome (HIV status).
Results: We show in a simulation study that selection models can generate biased results when the bivariate normality assumption is violated. In the 2007 Zambia DHS, HIV prevalence estimates are similar irrespective of the structure of the association assumed between participation and outcome. For men, we estimate a population HIV prevalence of 21% (95% CI = 16%–25%) compared with 12% (11%–13%) among those who consented to be tested; for women, the corresponding figures are 19% (13%–24%) and 16% (15%–17%).
Conclusions: Copula approaches to Heckman-type selection models are a useful addition to the methodological toolkit of HIV epidemiology and of epidemiology in general. We develop the use of this approach to systematically evaluate the robustness of HIV prevalence estimates based on selection models, both empirically and in a simulation study.

So mechanical or routine: The not original in Feist

The United States Supreme Court case of 1991, Feist Publications, Inc. v. Rural Tel. Service Co., continues to be highly significant for property in data and databases, but remains poorly understood. The approach taken in this article contrasts with previous studies. It focuses upon the “not original” rather than the original. The delineation of the absence of a modicum of creativity in selection, coordination, and arrangement of data as a component of the not original forms a pivotal point in the Supreme Court decision. The author also aims at elucidation rather than critique, using close textual exegesis of the Supreme Court decision. The results of the exegesis are translated into a more formal logical form to enhance clarity and rigor.


The insufficiently creative is initially characterized as “so mechanical or routine.” Mechanical and routine are understood in their ordinary discourse senses, as a conjunction or as connected by AND, and as the central clause. Subsequent clauses amplify the senses of mechanical and routine without disturbing their conjunction.


The delineation of the absence of a modicum of creativity can be correlated with classic conceptions of computability. The insufficiently creative can then be understood as a routine selection, coordination, or arrangement produced by an automatic mechanical procedure or algorithm. An understanding of a modicum of creativity and of copyright law is also indicated.


The value of the exegesis and interpretation is identified as its final simplicity, clarity, comprehensiveness, and potential practical utility.

New Circus: the benefits of Circus Training for young people in a residential setting,

Circus 1 to 3 is a circus school, based on the concept of New Circus, for boys resident in St. Patrick's Training School, Northern Ireland. The project is designed, not only to teach Circus skills, but also to foster social and personal skills. This report details an evaluation undertaken to assess die extent to which this programme meets these aims. A study of participants Circus records indicated that significant gains in co-operative behaviour, team-work, attitude and participation, as rated by Circus tutors, were evident over the course of boys involvement. A qualitative study was also conducted. These interviews with Circus 1 to 3 participants indicated that this project enhanced the quality of life for boys resident in St. Patrick's Training School. In addition the project, through the use of positive feedback, provides opportunities for boys to develop their social and personal skills. This evaluation concludes that Circus 1 to 3 is a worthwhile and successful endeavour.

Parametric and non-parametric estimates of willingness to pay for forest recreation in Northern Ireland: A discrete choice contingent valuation study with follow-ups

In this study we show that forest areas contribute significantly to the estimated benefits from om outdoor recreation in Northern Ireland. Secondly we provide empirical evidence of the gains in the statistical efficiency of both benefit and parameter estimates obtained by analysing follow-up responses with Double Bounded interval data analysis. As these gains are considerable, it is clearly worth considering this method in CVM survey design even when moderately large sample sizes are used. Finally we demonstrate that estimates of means and medians of WTP distributions for access to forest recreation show plausible magnitude, are consistent with previous UK studies, and converge across parametric and non-parametic methods of estimation.

Working Memory and Postural Control: Adult Age Differences in Potential for Improvement, Task Priority, and Dual Tasking

We investigate dynamic posture control and working memory (NBack) retest practice in young and older adults, focusing on older adults' potential for improvement in the component tasks but more importantly in dual-task performance. Participants performed the 2 tasks in 11 sessions under single- and dual-task conditions. Posture improvement was observed with retest practice for both groups. Increase in cognitive load after initial practice led to greater dual-task costs in both tasks in older adults and higher costs in memory in young adults. With continued practice, costs were reduced by both groups; however, the 2 groups focused improvement on different tasks: Older adults focused on posture but young adults on cognition. These results emphasize older adults' potential for improvement in dual-task performance and their flexibility to utilize the practice gains in posture to optimize cognitive performance.

Female choice in the red mason bee, Osmia rufa (L.) (Megachilidae)

Females are often thought to use several cues and more than one modality in selection of a mate, possibly because they offer complementary information on a mate's suitability. In the red mason bee, Osmia rufa, we investigated the criteria a female uses to choose a mating partner. We hypothesized that the female uses male thorax vibrations and size as signs of male viability and male odor for kin discrimination and assessment of genetic relatedness. We therefore compared males that had been accepted by a female for copulation with those rejected, in terms of their size, their immediate precopulatory vibrations (using laser vibrometry), the genetic relatedness of unmated and mated pairs (using microsatellite markers) and emitted volatiles (using chemical analyses). Females showed a preference for intermediate-sized males that were slightly larger than the modal male size. Furthermore, male precopulatory vibration burst duration was significantly longer in males accepted for copulation compared with rejected males. Vibrations may indicate vigor and assure that males selected by females are metabolically active and healthy. Females preferentially copulated with males that were genetically more closely related, possibly to avoid outbreeding depression. Volatiles of the cuticular surface differed significantly between accepted and rejected males in the relative amounts of certain hydrocarbons, although the relationship between male odor and female preference was complex. Females may therefore also use differences in odor bouquet to select among males. Our investigations show that O. rufa females appear to use multiple cues in selecting a male. Future investigations are needed to demonstrate whether odor plays a role in kin recognition and how the multiple cues are integrated in mate choice by females.

How Structural Model Variability Influences Transonic Aeroelastic Stability

This paper considers the ways in which structural model parameter variability can influence aeroelastic stability. Previous work on formulating the stability calculation (with the Euler equations providing the aerodynamic predictions) is exploited to use Monte Carlo, interval, and perturbation calculations to allow this question to be investigated. Three routes are identified. The first involves variable normal-mode frequencies only. The second involves normal-mode frequencies and shapes. Finally, the third, in addition to normal-mode frequencies and shapes, also includes their influence on the static equilibrium. Previous work has suggested only considering the first route, which allows significant gains in computational efficiency if reduced-order models can be built for the aerodynamics. However, results in the current paper show that neglecting the mode-shape variation can give misleading results for the flutter-onset prediction, complicating the development of reduced aerodynamic models for variability analysis.

When did Britain industrialise? The sectoral distribution of the labour force and labour productivity in Britain, 1381-1851

Britain's labour force industrialised early. The industrial and service sectors already accounted for 40% of the labour force in 1381, and a substantial further shift of labour out of agriculture occurred between 1522 and 1700. From the early seventeenth century rising agricultural labour productivity underpinned steadily increasing employment in industry and services, so that by 1759 agriculture's share of the labour force had shrunk to 37% and industry's grown to 34%. Thereafter, industry's output acceleration during the Industrial Revolution owed more to gains in labour productivity consequent upon mechanisation than the expansion of employment.

International on-line reciprocal peer tutoring to promote modern language development in primary schools

The paper reports data from an on-line peer tutoring project. In the project 78, 9–12-year-old students from Scotland and Catalonia peer tutored each other in English and Spanish via a managed on-line envi- ronment. Significant gains in first language (Catalonian pupils) modern language (Scottish pupils) and attitudes towards modern languages (both Catalonian and Scottish pupils) were reported for the exper- imental group as compared to the control group. Results indicated that pupils tutored each other in using Piagetian techniques of error correction during the project. Error correction provided by tutors to tutees focussed on morph syntaxys, more specifically the correction of verbs. Peer support provided via the on- line environment was predominantly based on the tutor giving the right answer to the tutee. High rates of impact on tutee corrected messages were observed. The implications for peer tutoring initiative taking place via on-line environments are discussed. Implications for policy and practice are explored

Peer tutoring in reading: The effects of role and organization on two dimensions of self-esteem

Background. Paired reading (PR) is an application of peer tutoring. It has been extensively researched, and its efficacy across a range of outcomes has been established. Benefits include improvements in key reading skills, and also in affective aspects of learning. Several studies have shown gains in self-esteem, although measurement methods have varied, and the model of self-esteem has rarely been clearly articulated.
Aims. To investigate the changes in self-esteem of children participating in a randomized trial of PR over a 15-week treatment period. To investigate the relative contribution of self-worth and self-competence to any gains in self-esteem. To investigate whether the pattern of change differs in children who take on different roles in the PR process.
Participants. The participants comprised a subset of a large-scale randomized trial of peer learning (The Fife Peer Learning Project). Four schools were randomly selected from schools allocated to the same-age PR condition, and four schools from those allocated to the cross-age PR condition. The same-age group consisted of 87 primary 6 children (10–11 years old). The cross-age group consisted of 81 primary 6 children. The controls, from schools randomly selected from a neighbouring authority, consisted of 92 primary 6 children.
Method. A pre–post design employing self-report measures of self-esteem. Rosenberg’s Self-Esteem Scale was used, with scores analysed for worth and competence. The treatment period was 15 weeks, with the participants following a prescribed PR process.
Results. Significant pre–post gains were noted in self-esteem, driven predominantly by improved beliefs about competence, in both same-age and cross-age conditions, but not for controls. Gains were also seen in self-worth in the cross-age condition. Further analyses of the influence of organizational condition (same-age or cross-age) and role played (tutor vs. tutee) showed significant differences between same-age tutors and cross-age tutors in relation to self-worth. Effect sizes were generally small or moderate.
Conclusions. The findings provide further support for the belief that PR can enhance self-esteem. Importantly, the use of a two-dimensional model provides extra information about self-perceptions in PR contexts: first, the central role of self- competence; and second, the gains in self-worth which are associated with tutoring younger children (but not same-age peers). This new information has educational significance for schools considering the potential of peer tutoring and the benefits of different organizational conditions.

Cooperative Learning in Science: Follow-up from primary to high school

This paper reports a two-year longitudinal study of the effects of cooperative learning on science attainment, attitudes towards science, and social connectedness during transition from primary to high school. A previous project on cooperative learning in primary schools observed gains in science understanding and in social aspects of school life. This project followed 204 children involved in the previous project and 440 comparison children who were not as they undertook transition from 24 primary schools to 16 high schools. Cognitive, affective, and social gains observed in the original project survived transition. The implications improving the effectiveness of school transition by using cooperative learning initiatives are explored. Possibilities for future research and the implications for practice and policy are discussed.

A Dynamic Buffer Management Scheme for End-to-End QoS Enhancement of Multi-flow Services in HSDPA

End-user multi-flow services support is a crucial aspect of current and next generation mobile networks. This paper presents a dynamic buffer management strategy for HSDPA end-user multi-flow traffic with aggregated real-time and non-real-time flows. The scheme incorporates dynamic priority switching between the flows for transmission on the HSDPA radio channel. The end-to-end performance of the proposed strategy is investigated with an end-user multi-flow session of simultaneous VoIP and TCP-based downlink traffic using detailed HSDPA system-level simulations. Compared to an equivalent static buffer management scheme, the results show that end-to-end throughput performance gains in the non-real-time flow and better HSDPA channel utilization is attainable without compromising the real-time VoIP flow QoS constraints

A lesson in business: cost-effectiveness analysis of a novel financial incentive intervention for increasing physical activity in the workplace

Background: Recently both the UK and US governments have advocated the use of financial incentives to encourage healthier lifestyle choices but evidence for the cost-effectiveness of such interventions is lacking. Our aim was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of a quasi-experimental trial, exploring the use of financial incentives to increase employee physical activity levels, from a healthcare and employer’s perspective.

Methods: Employees used a ‘loyalty card’ to objectively monitor their physical activity at work over 12 weeks. The Incentive Group (n=199) collected points and received rewards for minutes of physical activity completed. The No Incentive Group (n=207) self-monitored their physical activity only. Quality of life (QOL) and absenteeism were assessed at baseline and 6 months follow-up. QOL scores were also converted into productivity estimates using a validated algorithm. The additional costs of the Incentive Group were divided by the additional quality adjusted life years (QALYs) or productivity gained to calculate incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) and population expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was used to characterize and value the uncertainty in our estimates.

Results: The Incentive Group performed more physical activity over 12 weeks and by 6 months had achieved greater gains in QOL and productivity, although these mean differences were not statistically significant. The ICERs were £2,900/QALY and £2,700 per percentage increase in overall employee productivity. Whilst the confidence intervals surrounding these ICERs were wide, CEACs showed a high chance of the intervention being cost-effective at low willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds.

Conclusions: The Physical Activity Loyalty card (PAL) scheme is potentially cost-effective from both a healthcare and employer’s perspective but further research is warranted to reduce uncertainty in our results. It is based on a sustainable “business model” which should become more cost-effective as it is delivered to more participants and can be adapted to suit other health behaviors and settings. This comes at a time when both UK and US governments are encouraging business involvement in tackling public health challenges.

Outcomes and process in reading tutoring

Background: Large-scale randomised controlled trials are relatively rare in education. The present study approximates to, but is not exactly, a randomised controlled trial. It was an attempt to scale up previous small peer tutoring projects, while investing only modestly in continuing professional development for teachers.Purpose: A two-year study of peer tutoring in reading was undertaken in one local education authority in Scotland. The relative effectiveness of cross-age versus same-age tutoring, light versus intensive intervention, and reading versus reading and mathematics tutoring were investigated.Programme description (if relevant): The intervention was Paired Reading, a freely available cross-ability tutoring method applied to books of the pupils' choice but above the tutee's independent readability level. It involves Reading Together and Reading Alone, and switching from one to the other according to need.Sample: Eighty-seven primary schools of overall average socio-economic status, ability and gender in one council in Scotland. There were few ethnic minority students. Proportions of students with special needs were low. Children were eight and 10 years old as the intervention started. Macro-evaluation n = 3520. Micro-evaluation Year 1 15 schools n = 592, Year 2 a different 15 schools n = 591, compared with a comparison group of five schools n = 240.Design and methods: Almost all the primary schools in the local authority participated and were randomly allocated to condition. A macro-evaluation tested and retested over a two-year period using Performance Indicators in Primary Schools. A micro-evaluation tested and retested within each year using norm-referenced tests of reading comprehension. Macro-evaluation was with multi-level modelling, micro-evaluation with descriptive statistics and effect sizes, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA).Results: Macro-evaluation yielded significant pre-post gains in reading attainment for cross-age tutoring over both years. No other differences were significant. Micro-evaluation yielded pre-post changes in Year 1 (selected) and Year 2 (random) greater than controls, with no difference between same-age and cross-age tutoring. Light and intensive tutoring were equally effective. Tutoring reading and mathematics together was more effective than only tutoring reading. Lower socio-economic and lower reading ability students did better. Girls did better than boys. Regarding observed implementation quality, some factors were high and others low. Few implementation variables correlated with attainment gain.Conclusions: Paired Reading tutoring does lead to better reading attainment compared with students not participating. This is true in the long term (macro-evaluation) for cross-age tutoring, and in the short term (micro-evaluation) for both cross-age and same-age tutoring. Tutors and tutees benefited. Intensity had no effect but dual tutoring did have an effect. Low-socio-economic status, low-ability and female students did better. The results of the different forms of evaluation were indeed different. There are implications for practice and for future research. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.