Plant-wide predictive control for a thermal power plant based on a physical plant model

A constrained non-linear, physical model-based, predictive control (NPMPC) strategy is developed for improved plant-wide control of a thermal power plant. The strategy makes use of successive linearisation and recursive state estimation using extended Kalman filtering to obtain a linear state-space model. The linear model and a quadratic programming routine are used to design a constrained long-range predictive controller One special feature is the careful selection of a specific set of plant model parameters for online estimation, to account for time-varying system characteristics resulting from major system disturbances and ageing. These parameters act as nonstationary stochastic states and help to provide sufficient degrees-of-freedom to obtain unbiased estimates of controlled outputs. A 14th order non-linear plant model, simulating the dominant characteristics of a 200 MW oil-fired pou er plant has been used to test the NPMPC algorithm. The control strategy gives impressive simulation results, during large system disturbances and extremely high rate of load changes, right across the operating range. These results compare favourably to those obtained with the state-space GPC method designed under similar conditions.

Dynamic Multivariate Statistical Process Control using Subspace Identification

This paper points out a serious flaw in dynamic multivariate statistical process control (MSPC). The principal component analysis of a linear time series model that is employed to capture auto- and cross-correlation in recorded data may produce a considerable number of variables to be analysed. To give a dynamic representation of the data (based on variable correlation) and circumvent the production of a large time-series structure, a linear state space model is used here instead. The paper demonstrates that incorporating a state space model, the number of variables to be analysed dynamically can be considerably reduced, compared to conventional dynamic MSPC techniques.

Judging Time Intevals using a model of perceptuo-motor control

Estimating a time interval and temporally coordinating movements in space are fundamental skills, but the relationships between these different forms of timing, and the neural processes that they incur, are not well understood. While different theories have been proposed to account for time perception, time estimation, and the temporal patterns of coordination, there are no general mechanisms which unify these various timing skills. This study considers whether a model of perceptuo-motor timing, the tau(GUIDE), can also describe how certain judgements of elapsed time are made. To evaluate this, an equation for determining interval estimates was derived from the tau(GUIDE) model and tested in a task where participants had to throw a ball and estimate when it would hit the floor. The results showed that in accordance with the model, very accurate judgements could be made without vision (mean timing error -19.24 msec), and the model was a good predictor of skilled participants' estimate timing. It was concluded that since the tau(GUIDE) principle provides temporal information in a generic form, it could be a unitary process that links different forms of timing.

Models of open populations with space-limited recruitment: extension of theory and application to the barnacle Chthamalus montagui.

1. Barnacles are a good model organism for the study of open populations with space-limited recruitment. These models are applicable to other species with open supply of new individuals and resource limitation. The inclusion of space in models leads to reductions in recruitment with increasing density, and thus predictions of population size and stability are possible. 2. Despite the potential generality of a demographic theory for open space-limited populations, the models currently have a narrow empirical base. In this study, a model for an open population with space-limited recruitment was extended to include size-specific survival and promotions to any size class. The assumptions of this model were tested using data from a pan-European study of the barnacle Chthamalus montagui Southward. Two models were constructed: a 6-month model and a periodic annual model. Predicted equilibria and their stabilities were compared between shores. 3. Tests of model assumptions supported the extension of the theory to include promotions to any size class. Mortality was found to be size-specific and density independent. Studied populations were open, with recruitment proportional to free space. 4. The 6-month model showed a significant interaction between time and location for equilibrium free space. This may have been due to contrasts in the timing of structuring processes (i.e. creating and filling space) between Mediterranean and Atlantic systems. Integration of the 6-month models into a periodic annual model removed the differences in equilibrium-free space between locations. 5. Model predictions show a remarkable similarity between shores at a European scale. Populations were persistent and all solutions were stable. This reflects the apparent absence of density-dependent mortality and a high adult survivorship in C. montagui. As populations are intrinsically stable, observations of fluctuations in density are directly attributable to variations in the environmental forcing of recruitment or mortality

Model atmosphere and kinematical analyses of early-type stars from the Edinburgh-Cape Survey

We present high-resolution spectroscopic observations of 21 B- type stars, selected from the Edinburgh-Cape Blue Object Survey. Model atmosphere analyses confirm that 14 of these stars are young, main-sequence B-type objects with Population I chemical compositions. The remaining seven are found to be evolved objects, including subdwarfs, horizontal branch and post-AGB objects. A kinematical analysis shows that all 14 young main-sequence stars could have formed in the disc and subsequently been ejected into the halo. These results are combined with the analysis of a previous subsample of stars taken from the Survey. Of the complete sample, 31 have been found to be young, main-sequence objects, with formation in the disc, and subsequent ejection into the halo, again being found to be a plausible scenario.

A new look at the pulsating DB white dwarf GD 358: Line-of-sight velocity measurements and constraints on model atmospheres

We report on our findings of the bright, pulsating, helium atmosphere white dwarf GD 358, based on time-resolved optical spectrophotometry. We identify 5 real pulsation modes and at least 6 combination modes at frequencies consistent with those found in previous observations. The measured Doppler shifts from our spectra show variations with amplitudes of up to 5.5 km s-1 at the frequencies inferred from the flux variations. We conclude that these are variations in the line-of-sight velocities associated with the pulsational motion. We use the observed flux and velocity amplitudes and phases to test theoretical predictions within the convective driving framework, and compare these with similar observations of the hydrogen atmosphere white dwarf pulsators (DAVs). The wavelength dependence of the fractional pulsation amplitudes (chromatic amplitudes) allows us to conclude that all five real modes share the same spherical degree, most likely, l=1. This is consistent with previous identifications based solely on photometry. We find that a high signal-to-noise mean spectrum on its own is not enough to determine the atmospheric parameters and that there are small but significant discrepancies between the observations and model atmospheres. The source of these remains to be identified. While we infer Teff =24 kK and log g ~ 8.0 from the mean spectrum, the chromatic amplitudes, which are a measure of the derivative of the flux with respect to the temperature, unambiguously favour a higher effective temperature, 27 kK, which is more in line with independent determinations from ultra-violet spectra.

Space and phase resolved plasma parameters in an industrial dual-frequency capacitively coupled radio-frequency discharge

The dynamics of high energetic electrons (>= 11.7 eV) in a modified industrial confined dual-frequency capacitively coupled RF discharge (Exelan, Lam Research Inc.), operated at 1.937 MHz and 27.118 MHz, is investigated by means of phase resolved optical emission spectroscopy. Operating in a He-O-2. plasma with small rare gas admixtures the emission is measured, with one-dimensional spatial resolution along the discharge axis. Both the low and high frequency RF cycle are resolved. The diagnostic is based on time dependent measurements of the population densities of specifically chosen excited rare gas states. A time dependent model, based on rate equations, describes the dynamics of the population densities of these levels. Based on this model and the comparison of the excitation of various rare gas states, with different excitation thresholds, time and space resolved electron temperature, propagation velocity and qualitative electron density as well as electron energy distribution functions are determined. This information leads to a better understanding of the dual-frequency sheath dynamics and shows, that separate control of ion energy and electron density is limited.

Space and time resolved rotational state populations and gas temperatures in an inductively coupled hydrogen RF discharge

Gas temperature is of major importance in plasma based surface treatment, since the surface processes are strongly temperature sensitive. The spatial distribution of reactive species responsible for surface modification is also influenced by the gas temperature. Industrial applications of RF plasma reactors require a high degree of homogeneity of the plasma in contact with the substrate. Reliable measurements of spatially resolved gas temperatures are, therefore, of great importance. The gas temperature can be obtained, e.g. by optical emission spectroscopy (OES). Common methods of OES to obtain gas temperatures from analysis of rotational distributions in excited states do not include the population dynamics influenced by cascading processes from higher electronic states. A model was developed to evaluate this effect on the apparent rotational temperature that is observed. Phase resolved OES confirmed the validity of this model. It was found that cascading leads to higher apparent temperatures, but the deviation (similar or equal to 25 K) is relatively small and can be ignored in most cases. This analysis is applied to investigate axially and radially resolved temperature profiles in an inductively coupled hydrogen RF discharge.

Comparison of two construction algorithms for local model networks

The divide-and-conquer approach of local model (LM) networks is a common engineering approach to the identification of a complex nonlinear dynamical system. The global representation is obtained from the weighted sum of locally valid, simpler sub-models defined over small regions of the operating space. Constructing such networks requires the determination of appropriate partitioning and the parameters of the LMs. This paper focuses on the structural aspect of LM networks. It compares the computational requirements and performances of the Johansen and Foss (J&F) and LOLIMOT tree-construction algorithms. Several useful and important modifications to each algorithm are proposed. The modelling performances are evaluated using real data from a pilot plant of a pH neutralization process. Results show that while J&F achieves a more accurate nonlinear representation of the pH process, LOLIMOT requires significantly less computational effort.

A hierarchical physical model-based approach to predictive control of a thermal power plant for efficient plant-wide disturbance rejection

Extending the work presented in Prasad et al. (IEEE Proceedings on Control Theory and Applications, 147, 523-37, 2000), this paper reports a hierarchical nonlinear physical model-based control strategy to account for the problems arising due to complex dynamics of drum level and governor valve, and demonstrates its effectiveness in plant-wide disturbance handling. The strategy incorporates a two-level control structure consisting of lower-level conventional PI regulators and a higher-level nonlinear physical model predictive controller (NPMPC) for mainly set-point manoeuvring. The lower-level PI loops help stabilise the unstable drum-boiler dynamics and allow faster governor valve action for power and grid-frequency regulation. The higher-level NPMPC provides an optimal load demand (or set-point) transition by effective handling of plant-wide interactions and system disturbances. The strategy has been tested in a simulation of a 200-MW oil-fired power plant at Ballylumford in Northern Ireland. A novel approach is devized to test the disturbance rejection capability in severe operating conditions. Low frequency disturbances were created by making random changes in radiation heat flow on the boiler-side, while condenser vacuum was fluctuating in a random fashion on the turbine side. In order to simulate high-frequency disturbances, pulse-type load disturbances were made to strike at instants which are not an integral multiple of the NPMPC sampling period. Impressive results have been obtained during both types of system disturbances and extremely high rates of load changes, right across the operating range, These results compared favourably with those from a conventional state-space generalized predictive control (GPC) method designed under similar conditions.

Surrogate-Based Optimization Using Multifidelity Models with Variable Parameterization and Corrected Space Mapping

Surrogate-based-optimization methods provide a means to achieve high-fidelity design optimization at reduced computational cost by using a high-fidelity model in combination with lower-fidelity models that are less expensive to evaluate. This paper presents a provably convergent trust-region model-management methodology for variableparameterization design models: that is, models for which the design parameters are defined over different spaces. Corrected space mapping is introduced as a method to map between the variable-parameterization design spaces. It is then used with a sequential-quadratic-programming-like trust-region method for two aerospace-related design optimization problems. Results for a wing design problem and a flapping-flight problem show that the method outperforms direct optimization in the high-fidelity space. On the wing design problem, the new method achieves 76% savings in high-fidelity function calls. On a bat-flight design problem, it achieves approximately 45% time savings, although it converges to a different local minimum than did the benchmark.

Density-Enhanced Gas and Dust Shells in a New Chemical Model for IRC+10216

A new chemical model is presented for the carbon-rich circumstellar envelope (CSE) of the asymptotic giant branch star IRC+10216. The model includes shells of matter with densities that are enhanced relative to the surrounding circumstellar medium. The chemical model uses an updated reaction network including reactions from the RATE06 database and a more detailed anion chemistry. In particular, new mechanisms are considered for the formation of CN-, C3N-, and C2H-, and for the reactions of hydrocarbon anions with atomic nitrogen and with the most abundant cations in the CSE. New reactions involving H- are included which result in the production of significant amounts of C2H- and CN- in the inner envelope. The calculated radial molecular abundance profiles for the hydrocarbons C2H, C4H, and C6H and the cyanopolyynes HC3N and HC5N show narrow peaks which are in better agreement with observations than previous models. Thus, the narrow rings observed in molecular microwave emission surrounding IRC+10216 are interpreted as arising in regions of the envelope where the gas and dust densities are greater than the surrounding circumstellar medium. Our models show that CN- and C2H- may be detectable in IRC+10216 despite the very low theorized radiative electron attachment rates of their parent neutral species. We also show that magnesium isocyanide (MgNC) can be formed in the outer envelope through radiative association involving Mg+ and the cyanopolyyne species.

University space planning and space-type profiles

Universities planning the provision of space for their teaching requirements need to do so in a fashion that reduces capital and maintenance costs whilst still providing a high-quality level of service. Space plans should aim to provide sufficient capacity without incurring excessive costs due to over-capacity. A simple measure used to estimate over-provision is utilisation. Essentially, the utilisation is the fraction of seats that are used in practice, or the ratio of demand to supply. However, studies usually find that utilisation is low, often only 20–40%, and this is suggestive of significant over-capacity.

Our previous work has provided methods to improve such space planning. They identify a critical level of utilisation as the highest level that can be achieved whilst still reliably satisfying the demand for places to allocate teaching events. In this paper, we extend this body of work to incorporate the notions of event-types and space-types. Teaching events have multiple ‘event-types’, such as lecture, tutorial, workshop, etc., and there are generally corresponding space-types. Matching the type of an event to a room of a corresponding space-type is generally desirable. However, realistically, allocation happens in a mixed space-type environment where teaching events of a given type are allocated to rooms of another space-type; e.g., tutorials will borrow lecture theatres or workshop rooms.

We propose a model and methodology to quantify the effects of space-type mixing and establish methods to search for better space-type profiles; where the term “space-type profile” refers to the relative numbers of each type of space. We give evidence that these methods have the potential to improve utilisation levels. Hence, the contribution of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we present informative studies of the effects of space-type mixing on utilisation, and critical utilisations. Secondly, we present straightforward though novel methods to determine better space-type profiles, and give an example in which the resulting profiles are indeed significantly improved.

A photospheric bright point model

Aims. A magneto-hydrostatic model is constructed with spectropolarimetric properties close to those of solar photospheric magnetic bright points.
Methods. Results of solar radiative magneto-convection simulations are used to produce the spatial structure of the vertical component of the magnetic field. The horizontal component of magnetic field is reconstructed using the self-similarity condition, while the magneto-hydrostatic equilibrium condition is applied to the standard photospheric model with the magnetic field embedded. Partial ionisation processes are found to be necessary for reconstructing the correct temperature structure of the model.
Results. The structures obtained are in good agreement with observational data. By combining the realistic structure of the magnetic field with the temperature structure of the quiet solar photosphere, the continuum formation level above the equipartition layer can be found. Preliminary results are shown of wave propagation through this magnetic structure. The observational consequences of the oscillations are examined in continuum intensity and in the Fe I 6302 angstrom magnetically sensitive line.