What Moved Share Prices in the Nineteenth-Century London Stock Market?

Using a new weekly blue-chip index, this paper investigates the causes of stock price movements on the London market between 1823 and 1870. We find that economic fundamentals explain about 15 per cent of weekly and 34 per cent of monthly variation in share prices. Contemporary press reporting from the London Stock Exchange is used to ascertain what market participants thought were causing the largest movements on the market. The vast majority of large movements were attributed by the press to geopolitical, monetary, railway-sector, and financial-crisis news. Investigating the stock price changes on an independent list of events reaffirms these findings, suggesting that the most important specific events which moved markets were wars involving European powers.

Integration between the London and New York Stock Exchanges, 1825-1925

The integration between the London and New York Stock Exchanges is analyzed during the era when they were still developing as asset markets. The domestic securities on both exchanges showed little sustained integration, even when controlling for the different characteristics of stocks, implying that the pricing of securities in the US and UK were still being driven by local factors. However, there was considerable integration between New York and those listings on London which operated internationally. These results place a limit on the view that pre-World War I was the first era of globalization in terms of capital markets, and suggest that the listing of foreign securities may be one of the primary mechanisms driving asset market integration.