Avoiding Overfitting in Inverse Modeling of Chloride Migration in Concrete

Inverse analysis for reactive transport of chlorides through concrete in the presence of electric field is presented. The model is solved using MATLAB’s built-in solvers “pdepe.m” and “ode15s.m”. The results from the model are compared with experimental measurements from accelerated migration test and a function representing the lack of fit is formed. This function is optimised with respect to varying amount of key parameters defining the model. Levenberg-Marquardt trust-region optimisation approach is employed. The paper presents a method by which the degree of inter-dependency between parameters and sensitivity (significance) of each parameter towards model predictions can be studied on models with or without clearly defined governing equations. Eigen value analysis of the Hessian matrix was employed to investigate and avoid over-parametrisation in inverse analysis. We investigated simultaneous fitting of parameters for diffusivity, chloride binding as defined by Freundlich isotherm (thermodynamic) and binding rate (kinetic parameter). Fitting of more than 2 parameters, simultaneously, demonstrates a high degree of parameter inter-dependency. This finding is significant as mathematical models for representing chloride transport rely on several parameters for each mode of transport (i.e., diffusivity, binding, etc.), which combined may lead to unreliable simultaneous estimation of parameters.

Arterial stiffness and arteriovenous fistula failure of maturation

PURPOSE: Increased arterial stiffness is a common finding in patients with end-stage renal disease. Following creation of an arteriovenous fistula (AVF), appropriate dilation of the feeding artery must occur to facilitate AVF maturation. Arterial stiffness may impair the arterial dilation required to facilitate AVF development and contribute to subsequent failure to mature (FTM). The aim of this pilot study was to investigate the association between measurements of central and peripheral arterial stiffness, and AVF FTM.

METHODS: Patients undergoing AVF creation in a single centre (Belfast City Hospital, UK) between January and December 2015 were invited to have their carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), brachial-radial PWV and augmentation index (AI) measured prior to AVF creation. Subsequent AVF outcomes were identified.

RESULTS: Fifty-nine patients who had an AVF procedure were included in the final analysis (mean age 62 years); 50.8% had diabetes mellitus. The mean pre-operative arterial diameter for all AVFs was 3.9 mm. Average values for carotid-femoral PWV were 9.5 m/s, brachial-radial PWV 7.7 m/s and AI 25.6%. Using logistic regression, these arterial stiffness parameters did not predict AVF FTM: carotid-femoral PWV (P = 0.20), brachial-radial PWV (P = 0.13), AI (P = 0.50).

CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest study to date exploring the association between arterial stiffness and AVF FTM. The measured central and peripheral arterial stiffness parameters were not associated with AVF FTM. Further research is needed to define if non-invasive arterial physiological measurements would be clinically useful in the prediction of AVF FTM.

Back to the failure: an analytic narrative of the De Lorean debacle

There has been a recent identification of a need for a New Business History. This discussion connects with the analytic narrative approach. By following this approach, the study of business history provides important implications for the conduct and institutional design of contemporary industrial policy. The approach also allows us to solve historical puzzles. The failure of the De Lorean Motor Company Limited (DMCL) is one specific puzzle. Journalistic accounts that focus on John De Lorean's alleged personality defects as an explanation for this failure miss the crucial institutional component. Moreover, distortions in the rewards associated with industrial policy, and the fact that the objectives of the institutions implementing the policy were not solely efficiency-based, led to increased opportunities for rent-seeking. Political economy solves the specific puzzle; by considering institutional dimensions, we can also solve the more general puzzle of why activist industrial policy was relatively unsuccessful in Northern Ireland.

Territoriality and Migration in a Divided Society: Lay Theories of Citizenship and Place in Northern Ireland

The study of citizenship has increasingly focused on the ways in which spatialized understandings of the concept can be used to marginalise and exclude social groups: exclusive constructions of national boundaries, local neighbourhoods and public spaces can deny marginalised groups their social and political rights. Less attention has been paid to how constructions of place can accommodate different groups’ rights and promote peaceful coexistence. This is particularly important in locations where migration disrupts existing understandings (‘lay theories’) of the relationship between residency, identity and collective rights. The present research examines how spatialized understandings of citizenship shape perceptions of intergroup mixing in previously segregated areas of a post-conflict society. Critical Discursive Social Psychological (CDSP) analysis of 30 interviews with long-term residents and recent migrants to increasingly mixed areas of Belfast shows that, while all pa
rticipants acknowledged Northern Ireland’s territorialisation, different lay theories of citizenship underpin the possibility and desirability of intergroup coexistence. Long-term residents drew upon understandings of the negative citizenry of the outgroup to argue against the possibility of peaceful coexistence within their locale, while recent incomers gave evidence of their own experiences of good citizenship within the shared spaces of neighbourhood to demonstrate that this could and should be achieved. The implications of lay theories of citizenship for the study of residential migration and mixing are discussed