Higher incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus in remote areas: a UK regional small-area analysis

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated the association between the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus and remoteness (a proxy measure for exposure to infections) using recently developed techniques for statistical analysis of small-area data.<br/><br/>Subjects, materials and methods: New cases in children aged 0 to 14 years in Northern Ireland were prospectively registered from 1989 to 2003. Ecological analysis was conducted using small geographical units (582 electoral wards) and area characteristics including remoteness, deprivation and child population density. Analysis was conducted using Poisson regression models and Bayesian<br/>hierarchical models to allow for spatially correlated risks that were potentially caused by unmeasured explanatory variables.<br/><br/>Results: In Northern Ireland between 1989 and 2003, there were 1,433 new cases of type 1 diabetes, giving a directly standardised incidence rate of 24.7 per 100,000 personyears. Areas in the most remote fifth of all areas had a significantly (p=0.0006) higher incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (incidence rate ratio=1.27 [95% CI 1.07, 1.50]) than those in the most accessible fifth of all areas. There was also a higher incidence rate in areas that were less deprived (p&lt;0.0001) and less densely populated (p=0.002). After adjustment for deprivation and additional adjustment for child population density the association between diabetes and remoteness remained significant (p=0.01 and p=0.03, respectively).<br/><br/>Conclusions/interpretation: In Northern Ireland, there is evidence that remote areas experience higher rates of type 1 diabetes mellitus. This could reflect a reduced or delayed exposure to infections, particularly early in life, in these areas.

Algal epiphytes of Zostera marina: Variation in assemblage structure from individual leaves to regional scale

Data from a hierarchical study of four Zostera marina beds in Wales were used to identify the spatial scales of variation in epiphyte assemblages. There were significant within and among bed differences in assemblage structure. The differences in assemblage structure with spatial scale generally persisted when species identifications were aggregated into functional groups. There was also significant within and among bed variability in Zostera density and average length. Local variations in Zostera canopy variables at the quadrat scale (total leaf length, average leaf length and leaf density per quadrat) were not related to epiphyte species richness nor to the structure of the assemblage. In contrast, individual leaf length was significantly related to species richness in two of the beds and the structure of epiphyte assemblages was always related to individual leaf lengths. The absence of links between quadrat scale measurements of canopy variables and assemblage structure may reflect the high turnover of individual Zostera leaves. Experimental work is required to discriminate further between the potential causes of epiphyte assemblage variation within and between beds. No bed represented a refuge where a rare species was abundant. If a species was uncommon at the bed scale, it was also uncommon in beds where it occurred. The heterogeneous assemblages found in this study suggest that a precautionary approach to conservation is advisable.

Mechanical behaviour of unsaturated kaolin (with isotropic and anisotropic stress history). Part 1: wetting and compression behaviour

Over the last 40 years considerable progress has been made in understanding the complex behaviour of unsaturated soils. Research using constitutive modelling has extended the critical state framework and the concept of yielding in saturated soils to encompass unsaturated soils experiencing suction. However, validation testing of the framework for unsaturated soils has shown disagreement with the basic propositions. The main reason for this disparity is the anisotropic properties of the soil specimens tested as a result of preparation using one-dimensional compaction. The paper describes the detailed testing carried out to justify this statement. As part of the work presented, samples of unsaturated kaolin were prepared using isotropic compression. The suctions in these samples were reduced to predefined values by wetting under low isotropic loading. The pore size distributions, the pressure–volume relationships and yielding under subsequent isotropic loading are compared with tests on samples prepared by statically compressing kaolin into a one-dimensional compaction mould. The anisotropically compressed samples had initial water contents and specific volumes similar to those of the isotropically prepared samples and were also tested under reducing suctions; they exhibited distinctly different behaviour when tested under similar conditions. The results obtained from the isotropically prepared and tested samples have shown, probably for the first time, the existence of a unique normal compression surface that is not dependent on the initial conditions of the samples. The shape of the loading–collapse (LC) yield locus is shown to be different from the generally accepted form.