Integrated structure selection and parameter optimisation for eng-genes neural models

The eng-genes concept involves the use of fundamental known system functions as activation functions in a neural model to create a 'grey-box' neural network. One of the main issues in eng-genes modelling is to produce a parsimonious model given a model construction criterion. The challenges are that (1) the eng-genes model in most cases is a heterogenous network consisting of more than one type of nonlinear basis functions, and each basis function may have different set of parameters to be optimised; (2) the number of hidden nodes has to be chosen based on a model selection criterion. This is a mixed integer hard problem and this paper investigates the use of a forward selection algorithm to optimise both the network structure and the parameters of the system-derived activation functions. Results are included from case studies performed on a simulated continuously stirred tank reactor process, and using actual data from a pH neutralisation plant. The resulting eng-genes networks demonstrate superior simulation performance and transparency over a range of network sizes when compared to conventional neural models. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vegetation changes and human settlement of Easter Island during the last millennia: a multiproxy study of the Lake Raraku sediments

Earlier palynological studies of lake sediments from Easter Island suggest that the island underwent a recent and abrupt replacement of palm-dominated forests by grasslands, interpreted as a deforestation by indigenous people. However, the available evidence is inconclusive due to the existence of extended hiatuses and ambiguous chronological frameworks in most of the sedimentary sequences studied. This has given rise to an ongoing debate about the timing and causes of the assumed ecological degradation and cultural breakdown. Our multiproxy study of a core recovered from Lake Raraku highlights the vegetation dynamics and environmental shifts in the catchment and its surroundings during the late Holocene. The sequence contains shorter hiatuses than in previously recovered cores and provides a more continuous history of environmental changes. The results show a long, gradual and stepped landscape shift from palm-dominated forests to grasslands. This change started c. 450 BC and lasted about two thousand years. The presence of Verbena litoralis, a common weed, which is associated with human activities in the pollen record, the significant correlation between shifts in charcoal influx, and the dominant pollen types suggest human disturbance of the vegetation. Therefore, human settlement on the island occurred c. 450 BC, some 1500 years earlier than is assumed. Climate variability also exerted a major influence on environmental changes. Two sedimentary gaps in the record are interpreted as periods of droughts that could have prevented peat growth and favoured its erosion during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. At c. AD 1200, the water table rose and the former Raraku mire turned into a shallow lake, suggesting higher precipitation/evaporation rates coeval with a cooler and wetter Pan-Pacific AD 1300 event. Pollen and diatom records show large vegetation changes due to human activities c. AD 1200. Other recent vegetation changes also due to human activities entail the introduction of taxa (e.g. Psidium guajava, Eucalyptus sp.) and the disappearance of indigenous plants such as Sophora toromiro during the two last centuries. Although the evidence is not conclusive, the American origin of V. litoralis re-opens the debate about the possible role of Amerindians in the human colonisation of Easter Island.